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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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** A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEE THE WRITTEN FORECAST FOR EACH AREA FURTHER DOWN IN THE BLOG **
SEE THE LIVE WINTER STORM BLOG FOR WINTER STORM UPDATES. CLICK HERE.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Low risk. Isolated lightning is possible into Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Isolated. Locally heavy rain will be possible Wednesday and Thursday. Some water issues will be possible. The greatest concern will be across western Tennessee and Kentucky.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Wednesday night into Saturday morning.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. SEE THE LIVE WINTER STORM BLOG FOR WINTER STORM UPDATES. CLICK HERE.
Accumulating freezing rain, sleet, and snow will occur Wednesday into Thursday night. First across Missouri and Illinois and then spreading into Kentucky and Tennessee.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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February 2, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
SEE THE LIVE WINTER STORM BLOG FOR WINTER STORM UPDATES. CLICK HERE.
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy with rain likely. A wide range of temperatures north to south. Rain changing to sleet and freezing rain over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The colder air will slowly push in from the northwest.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 28° north to 42° south / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 35° / South IL 40° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Winds south of the cold front will be from the south at 10 to 25 mph. Winds north of the cold front will be from the north at 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy roads may develop over Missouri and Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 5:21 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. Rain changing to freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Some accumulation likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° / SE MO 22° to 26° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 23° to 26° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 33° to 36°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy roadways where wintry precipitation develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 8:17 AM
Moonset: 7:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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February 3, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy with freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Accumulation of frozen precipitation likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 32° / SE MO 20° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 25° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 26° to 32° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 5:22 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Colder. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° / SE MO 10° to 15° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 8° to 12° / South IL 10° to 15° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 15° / West KY 10° to 15° / NW TN 14° to 16°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:48 AM
Moonset: 8:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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February 4, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Snow showers possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 32°
Winds will be from the: North 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case roads are icy.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 5:23 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Clearing and cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before noon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 10° to 14° / SE MO 8° to 12° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 8° to 12° / South IL 10° to 15° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 15° / West KY 10° to 15° / NW TN 10° to 14°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:16 AM
Moonset: 9:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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February 5, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 32° to 35°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 5:24 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 10° to 15° / SE MO 8° to 12° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 8° to 12° / South IL 10° to 15° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 15° / West KY 10° to 15° / NW TN 10° to 15°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:42 AM
Moonset: 10:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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February 6, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 32° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 32° to 35°
Winds will be from the: West southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 18° to 20° / SE MO 15° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 18° / South IL 15° to 20° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° / West KY 15° to 20° / NW TN 18° to 20°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:07 AM
Moonset: 11:26 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through February 7th Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Winter storm beginning.
- Significant winter storm to impact the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Widespread icy roadways.
- Bitterly cold air behind the front Thursday into Saturday.
Weather advice:
SEE THE LIVE WINTER STORM BLOG FOR WINTER STORM UPDATES. CLICK HERE.
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
Join me tonight for a question and answer Facebook thread.
See that on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page. Link
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Weather Discussion
SEE THE LIVE WINTER STORM BLOG FOR WINTER STORM UPDATES. CLICK HERE.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers January 31st through February 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers February 7th through February13th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers February 8th through February 21st
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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