February 2, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Flurries or a snow shower is possible late Thursday night and Friday. A light snow event is possible Saturday and Saturday night. Monitor updates. I continue to watch next week, as well. Low confidence on next weeks forecast.

2. Is lightning in the forecast? Unlikely.

3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Yes. Saturday into next week. Bitterly cold wind chill values. The coldest nights will be Saturday night, Sunday night, and Monday night. Winds during the day will also make it feel bitterly cold. Bundle up weather. Frost bite weather. Use caution, as always.

February 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° West KY 40° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 5:21 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Clearing. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 24° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 22° to 24° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:56 PM
Moonset: 10:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

February 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 5:23 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 30° to 35° South IL 30° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 35° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset: 10:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

February 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. Windy. A chance of morning showers. Increasing rain chances during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered during the morning. Becoming numerous during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 5:24 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Rain may taper off as snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 30° to 32° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Becoming scattered as the night wears on.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy patches possible if precipitation lingers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 11:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter

February 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A snow flurry possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:25 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 24° to 26° NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:15 AM
Moonset: 11:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

February 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Becoming cloudy with snow showers possible. Turning sharply colder. Falling temperatures. Windy. Snow accumulation of 0.00 to 1.5″.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of rain changing to snow. Flash freeze possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a snow shower. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 12° to 15° SE MO 5° to 10° South IL 8° to 14° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 12° to 15° West KY 12° to 15° NW TN 13° to 16°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph with gusts above 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor road conditions. Bitterly cold air. Frost bite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:26 AM
Moonset: 12:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

February 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Bitterly cold. Snow showers possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° SE MO 18° to 22° South IL 18° to 22° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 22° West KY 18° to 24° NW TN 22° to 24°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold air. Frost bite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 5:27 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° SE MO 8° to 14° South IL 8° to 14° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 14° West KY 10° to 15° NW TN 14° to 16°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold air. Frost bite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:35 AM
Moonset: 1:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

February 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some PM clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 18° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold air. Frost bite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:28 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° SE MO 8° to 14° South IL 8° to 14° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 14° West KY 10° to 15° NW TN 14° to 16°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold air. Monitor snow chances.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:39 AM
Moonset: 2:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).

Please refer to the long range video until that time.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through February 12th. Severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Bitterly cold air arrives Saturday into next week. Frost bite weather. Use caution.

Light snow possible Saturday and Saturday night. Light accumulation not out of the question. Monitor.

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Weather Discussion

1. Dry today into Wednesday night.
2. Rain chances return Thursday and Thursday night.
3. A few light showers or snow showers Friday.
4. Sharply colder by Saturday and especially Sunday.
5. Watching snow potential as colder air arrives late weekend into next week. Low confidence.

Good day, everyone.

The big weather story is going to be much colder air this coming weekend.

First, we have another dry day for the region. It will remain dry through Wednesday night.

No extremes.

A cold front will advance towards the region Thursday. This will be the first front. It will be followed by a much stronger cold front Friday night and Saturday.

A band of showers will accompany the Thursday cold front. It will move in from the west/northwest.

Rain totals will that front will range from 0.20″ to 0.50″. Slightly higher totals are possible from northwest Tennessee into western Kentucky.

It appears the risk of lightning will be small. Not much in the way of instability.

Gusty winds Thursday morning and afternoon. Winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

The system will quickly move off to our east Thursday night.

A few showers or snow showers may remain Thursday night into Friday. Nothing major.

Then, the big weather story.

A significant cold front will sweep across the United States Friday into the weekend.

This will usher in the coldest air of the winter season.

Areas to our north will be well below zero. Snowpack zones could dip to twenty below zero or lower.

Our region, without deep snowpack, will likely dip into the single digit and teens.

The coldest night will be Saturday, Sunday, and Monday nights.

The front will likely be accompanied by a band of rain showers changing to snow showers. At this time, it appears this is more likely Saturday vs Friday night.

Snow accumulation of 0.00″ to 1.00″ will be possible.

Sometimes these arctic cold fronts can surprise us. A bit more moisture will equal slightly higher snow totals. I will be closely monitoring this portion of the forecast.

For now, the above is my forecast. Light accumulation.

Gusty wind will accompany the front. Wind gusts above 30 mph over the weekend. This will drop wind chill values to -5 to 15 above as we move through Saturday afternoon into early next week.

Temperatures

Click images and animations to enlarge them

Local

Regional

There are a lot of rumors and chatter about a major winter storm early next week.

Models do not handle winter storms all that well. Especially in the long range. There is no reason to forecast heavy snow this far out. It just is not responsible.

The system may come in flatter. If that happens then the bulk of the snow Monday and Tuesday would remain to our south.

I am not currently forecasting a major winter storm in our local area.

That could certainly change. Confidence in the eventual outcome is very low.

Could there be snow or ice? Definitely. It is showing up in the charts. Will there be? Well, that is the question!

For now, I continue to monitor all of the model guidance. I am monitoring trends. What does that mean?

It means that I am watching the models from run to run to see if they show some consistency. To see if they show trends one way or another.

I will know a lot more by Friday. Until then, this is something to monitor moving forward but nothing to get overly worried or excited about. Depending on whether you like or dislike snow!

It will be cold much of next week.

Beyond Monday and Tuesday, the models do show additional precipitation chances in a fast moving jetstream flow.

Spring will soon be knocking.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.