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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Thursday/Thursday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. I am closely watching Thursday.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Monday: 5. Moderate risk.
Monday night. 5. Moderate risk.
Tuesday through Tuesday night: 5. Moderate risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Relative humidity values should fall to 25 to 30 percent this afternoon with mixing heights rising to 3500 to 4500 ft. Southerly winds around 10 to 15 mph will lead to at least fair dispersion today and again on Tuesday. Slightly higher RH is forecast Tuesday with closer to 4500 ft mixing heights with a bit stronger south to southwest winds leading to fair to good dispersion. The next chance of rain holds off until Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front moves through along with a wind shift.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:39 PM .
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Monday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of sprinkles or flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:59 PM
Moonset: 3:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday Forecast: Becoming mostly sunny
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 5:40 PM .
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:58 PM
Moonset: 4:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 5:41 PM .
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of late night showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:00 PM
Moonset: 5:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- A bit milder today, but still cool.
- Warming trend into the middle of the week. Several nice days.
- A strong cold front moves through the region Thursday/Thursday night. Bringing showers and thunderstorms.
- Colder behind the cold front Friday and Saturday.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Let’s start thinking about severe weather as we move into the coming weeks.
Forecast Discussion
Good morning, everyone. I hope you had a nice weekend. Some of you will have today off, as well. President’s Day!
The weather will be nice today, tomorrow, and Wednesday.
A weak front will pass near the region tonight. That will bring some increase in clouds. Perhaps a sprinkle or flurry, but it would be non-measurable (if it occurred).
Temperatures will be mild today into Thursday. Above seasonal averages!
Check out Wednesday’s temperatures.
A strong cold front will push into the region Thursday and Thursday night.
A few showers will be possible as early as Wednesday night. Nothing of significance. Rain totals Wednesday night would range from 0.05″ to 0.20″.
Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous Thursday. Locally heavy downpours are possible. A few of the storms could produce gusty wind and dime size hail, as well.
The severe weather risk appears low, but perhaps not zero. There are questions about dew points. Typically, we look for dew points in the 58 degree range or higher. That would be sufficient for severe weather. We may remain just below that Thursday, but close enough to warrant us paying attention.
There are quite a few other severe weather parameters present. Thus, monitor updates.
Rain totals Wednesday through Thursday night.
Let’s look at rain probabilities.
The bulk of the precipitation will occur Thursday.
Wednesday night
Thursday
Thursday night
Friday into Sunday will be dry. No weather concerns.
I continue to watch a bigger storm or two next week. Monitor updates. There are a lot of signals for severe thunderstorms, but it is still a bit early for certainties. That is beyond the long range forecast period.
I will keep you updated.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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