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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Friday to Friday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No. Some light snow showers are possible Sunday with little or no accumulation.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Possible. Temperatures will be cold tonight. Wind chill values will hover around zero degrees.
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February 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
We will need to monitor fog chances over the coming days.
Friday Forecast: There may still be some clouds in the region. Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads will remain in the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 5:40 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 10° to 14° SE MO 6° to 10° South IL 8° to 10° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 8° to 12° West KY 8° to 12° NW TN 10° to 15°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility if fog forms. Icy roads will remain in the region. Bitterly cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:50 AM
Moonset: 12:25 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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February 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. We will need to monitor cloud cover. Sometimes it is hard to push the clouds out when we have this much snow ont he ground.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None, but icy roads will remain in the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2: Low.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 5:41 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 24° SE MO 18° to 24° South IL 18° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 18° to 24° West KY 18° to 24° NW TN 18° to 24°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads may remain in the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:26 AM
Moonset: 1:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of afternoon rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 5:41 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely before midnight. Ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Black ice possible if moisture refreezes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 12:06 PM
Moonset: 2:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Morning clouds departing off to the east. Becoming sunny west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 45° to 59°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:55 PM
Moonset: 3:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Patchy AM fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 5:44 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:51 PM
Moonset: 4:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Milder. A slight chance of light rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 5:45 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy with a slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 2:54 PM
Moonset: 5:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of early morning showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early in the morning
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? West roadways early in the morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 5:46 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 24° SE MO 22° to 24° South IL 22° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 24° West KY 22° to 24° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:01 PM
Moonset: 5:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through February 27th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Use care on icy surfaces and roads.
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Weather Discussion
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- Icy roads remain in the region.
- Snow comes to an end.
- Bitterly cold again tonight and Friday night.
- Warming trend this weekend with a chance of rain Sunday (maybe mixed with snow).
- Milder next week.
Our busy weather pattern is about to relax, a bit.
It will be cold today into tonight. Widespread single digits likely Saturday morning.
Saturday morning lows using a blend of models. Click images to enlarge them.
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Black ice is a concern today, as well. Same for tonight and tomorrow morning.
As long as snow is melting on the roadways, there could be black ice.
Many roads are a sheet of ice. Use care, as always.
By next week, highs will reach into the 50s. The snow will melt. Hopefully, not too fast. We don’t want river flooding.
We do have a chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night. The rain may mix with snow with no accumulation.
Another chance of rain towards the middle of the week. Neither of these appear to be heavy rain events, thankfully.
There is a MASSIVE area of snow and ice cover in the United States. That is a lot of water to deal with. Right before spring. That makes it even worse.
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Snowfall the last 7-days
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Snowfall the last 30 days
\Snowfall so far this winter.
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Snowfall the last
If we enter a wet pattern then river flooding concerns will increase. Stay tuned.
Roads will remain icy over the next few days. Use care.
Here is the February anomaly map through yesterday. The nation has been WELL below average in the temperature department. One of the coldest starts to February on record. Quite amazing. These are big numbers and cover a large chunk of real estate.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 19th through February 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers February 26th through March 4th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers March 5th through March 18th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook
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February Precipitation Outlook
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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