Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

This is what you are missing out on if you are not a $3 a month subscriber!

1. Daily forecast texts from my computer to your app/cell phone
2. Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone
3. Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
4. Missouri Valley centered video updates
5. Ohio Valley centered video updates
6. Long-range video updates
7. Week one temperature and precipitation outlook
8. Week two temperature and precipitation outlook
9. Week three and four temperature and precipitation outlook
10. Monthly outlooks

Monthly operating costs for Weather Talk can top $2000.00.  Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.
.

.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
.

.

.
Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link.

.

February 19, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Windy.  A mix of sun and clouds.  Scattered rain showers.  A thunderstorm possible.  Warm.  Best rain chances over southeast Missouri and then lesser chances the further east you drive.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74       IL ~  68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 15 to 35 mph.  Gusty winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.

.
Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Scattered rain showers.   Well above normal temperatures.  Warm.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 60 to 64      IL ~ 56 to 62       KY ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over most of the area.  Greatest coverage over southeast Missouri.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South winds at 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  I will monitor thunderstorm chances.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  No, but monitor radars.

.

February 20, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm.   A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly over southeast Missouri.  A few scattered showers elsewhere.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 76      IL ~  74 to 78     KY ~ 75 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread over western portions of southeast Missouri.  Scattered elsewhere.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South winds at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars and updates.

.
Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Rain likely.  Heavy rain possible.  A thunderstorm possible.  Turning colder northwest to southeast.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 34 to 44      IL ~ 34 to 42       KY ~ 42 to 58  (coldest extreme west vs east)
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 90%    IL ~ 90%    KY ~ 90%    TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning possible.  Locally heavy rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  Have a plan B.

.

February 21, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Turning colder.  High temperatures early in the day and then falling.  Rain.  Locally heavy rain possible.  A chance of freezing rain across northern portions of southeast Missouri and perhaps northwest (around Randolph County, IL) portions of southwest Illinois.  Confidence in the freezing rain portion of the forecast is lower than normal.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 36 to 48       IL ~  38 to 50     KY ~ 48 to 60  Temperatures should fall through the day as the colder air pushes further into the region.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 80%      IL ~ 80%       KY ~ 90%          TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Wind chill values: 28 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates
Winds: North and northwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Locally heavy rain.  Monitor the ice potential across our far northern counties.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.  Monitor updates.

.
Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain likely.  A wintry mix possible over portions of northern southeast Missouri and northern parts of southwest Illinois.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 32 to 36      IL ~ 32 to 36       KY ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 80%    KY ~ 80%    TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to widespread
Wind chill values: 26 to 34
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates.
Winds: North and northeast at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Monitor wintry mix potential.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

.

February 22, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers likely, especially over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 54       IL ~  46 to 54       KY ~ 50 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A bit more coverage over western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: North and northeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars

.
Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain developing.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 42 to 46      IL ~ 40 to 45       KY ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage overnight.  Becoming widespread.
Wind chill values: 30’s and 40’s
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

.

February 23, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62      IL ~  56 to 60      KY ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%      IL ~ 70%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

.
Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 42 to 46      IL ~ 42 to 46       KY ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

.

February 24, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Warm.  Windy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~  60  to 65     KY ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

.
Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms in the evening.  Turning colder.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 38 to 44    IL ~ 40 to 45       KY ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.  Winds becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates

.

February 25, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 36 to 42      IL ~ 36 to 42      KY ~ 36 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

.

February 26, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East and northeast at 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few passing clouds.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 36 to 42      IL ~ 36 to 42      KY ~ 36 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

.

.
The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Monday through Friday:  Monitor updates.  On and off thunderstorms chances are possible.  At this time, the severe weather risk appears low.  Lightning will be the main concern.  Heavy rain will be a concern.  Between now and Saturday, rainfall totals of one to four inches will be possible.  Locally higher totals possible.  Monitor updates.

Saturday and Saturday night:  Monitor updates.  Stronger storms are possible during this time frame.

.

.
The daily outlook can be found at the bottom of this post.
.

.
We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

.

.

.

.

Forecast:

HIGHLIGHTS

1.  Active weather through Saturday night.  On and off rain chances.
2.  Record high temperatures possible, especially Tuesday afternoon.
3.  Locally heavy rain is a concern this week.
4.  The placement of the cold front will be key to when you experience the greatest chance of rain
5.   I am monitoring Wednesday into Thursday for freezing rain.  This would most likely be across portions of the Missouri Ozarks and then northeast towards Mt Vernon, Illinois.  Confidence remains low on this portion of the forecast.

High confidence today and tonight.

Medium confidence in the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon forecast.

An active weather pattern is underway.  We will have multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms between now and Saturday night.

The good news is that the front responsible for all of this rain will waver north and south across our region.  That will keep the bands of heavy rain from sitting over one spot.

The bad news is that an area-wide heavy rain event will be the end result.  This will cause rivers to rise over the coming 14 days.

Between now and Saturday night you can expect a widespread two to four inches of rain.  Pockets of greater than five inches of rain likely.  Some of the guidance indicates rain totals of seven to ten inches.  Obviously, this is a major concern for flooding.

Check out the seven-day rain forecast from the WPC/NOAA.  The widespread nature of this event will mean water basins will be soaked.

Click images to enlarge them
.

.
Let’s break that down into days.

Here are the forecast rainfall totals from 6 AM Monday through 6 AM Tuesday
.

.
Here are the forecast rainfall totals from 6 AM Monday through 6 AM Wednesday.
.

.
Here are the forecast rainfall totals from 6 AM Monday through 6 AM Thursday.
.

.
Here are the forecast rainfall totals from 6 AM Monday through 6 AM Saturday.
.

.
Here are the forecast rainfall totals from 6 AM Monday through 6 AM Sunday.
.

.

The good news is that severe weather is unlikely today through Friday.  Lightning will be possible from time to time.

I am closely monitoring Saturday for stronger thunderstorms.  The dynamics should be stronger Saturday.  Monitor updates concerning that part of the forecast.

Let’s check out some future-cast radar images from three models.

The timestamp can be found in the upper left portion of the graphic.

Green and yellow/orange represent rain.  Blue is snow.  Purple, pink, and red represent freezing rain.

This first model is the high-resolution 3K NAM.

This is one model’s opinion.  Other models may disagree.  Model’s are for guidance and are not gospel.  Typically, no one model is 100% correct.  It normally takes a blend of model guidance to put together a forecast.
.

.

Here is what the 3K NAM paints for rain totals through 6 PM Wednesday
.

.
This second model is the regular NAM model.
.

.

Here are the rain totals from the NAM guidance through 6 PM Thursday
.

.

This model is the GFS guidance.  The GFS goes out further in time.
.

.
The GFS rainfall totals are more substantial because it goes out further in time.  This covers today through next Sunday night.
.

.

We will need to monitor the freezing line late Tuesday night into Thursday.

The NAM shows quite a bit of freezing rain across portions of our region and then northwest from there.  There remain a lot of questions about this portion of the forecast.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

We typically cut these model numbers in half.

This is one model’s opinion.  Other models disagree.  Model’s are for guidance and are not gospel.  Typically, no one model is 100% correct.  It normally takes a blend of model guidance to put together a forecast.
.

.
The GFS model shows very little in the way of freezing rain.  Two models.  Two opinions.  It is a bit soon to know the outcome.  Monitor updates.
.

.

It will be quite warm the next 48 hours.  As a matter of fact, someone might hit 80 degrees Tuesday afternoon.  The most likely area of this occurring will be western Kentucky.  Either way, widespread 60’s today and widespread 70’s tomorrow.

Check out the 24-hour temperature change graphic.  This is how many degrees warmer it is this morning.
.

.

Here is the GFS model guidance temperature forecast.  Timestamp upper left.

This is for today through Thursday 6 am.  Notice the push of cold air Wednesday and Wednesday night.  We will need to monitor how far south the freezing line pushes.

The NAM model guidance shows a significant ice storm across portions of southwest Missouri into central Illinois.  Still a bit early for certainties.  The bulk of the ice should stay to our northwest.  Monitor updates.
.

.
Gusty winds are likely today into Wednesday.  Winds may gust above 35 mph.

We will need to monitor river stages.  Rivers are going to rise over the coming weeks.
.

.
The preliminary summer forecast has been posted on the subscription website.  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Summer outlook – Click here

.

.

We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.