Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Today into Thursday morning

The next weather concern will be a cold front on Thursday.  Another system (weaker) is possible late Friday night through Saturday night.

The Thursday cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast.

A warm front will move across the region early on Thursday.  This will bring widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Most of the area will likely remain dry tonight and tomorrow morning.  A few spots will pick up a bit of rain.

Most of the model guidance is showing only a few showers and storms late tonight and tomorrow morning.  Not much.

The risk of severe weather with these storms is low.  I can’t rule out a report or two of small hail (if storms form).

Let’s look at the rainfall totals.

Keep in mind that this is broad-brushed.  Some of these areas, highlighted in green, will receive little or no precipitation.

If you find yourself under a thunderstorm, then rain totals would be a bit higher, of course.

Double-click on the image to enlarge it.

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Thursday afternoon into Friday

Questions remain on the coverage of the precipitation on Thursday afternoon and night.  A lot of data shows scattered precipitation.  There is quite a bit of data that keeps our region mostly dry from this system.

For now, there is at least a 20% to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday night across much of the region.

Chances will be 40% to 60%+ over northern portions of southern Illinois, southeast Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.  See the graphics below.

At least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in front of the cold front.  The chance will be a bit higher over Illinois and Kentucky.  A bit lower over Missouri and Tennessee.

I can show you the precipitation probabilities.  That will give you the general idea of what I am thinking for this system.

This first graphic is for late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.  A few showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the warm front.

As you can see, the chances are higher east-northeast than west-southwest.

Wednesday night/Thursday morning rain probabilities (% chance of rain).

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Here are the Thursday (daytime) shower and thunderstorm probabilities.  Most likely, after the morning chances, it will be quiet until later in the day.

Notice how the chances are higher to our north and east.  Lower chances as you travel west-southwest.

Peak chances are over southeast Illinois and northern Kentucky.

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Here are the Thursday night probabilities.   Again, they are skewed to the east northeast.

Lower chances in Missouri.  Higher chances over Kentucky and Tennessee.

As you can see, the system will be pulling away from our region on Thursday night.  Rain chances will taper from west to east.

This is for the 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM Friday time frame

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Some thunderstorms may be intense.   As mentioned at the top of the blog post.

The primary concern would be gusty winds and small hail.  The tornado risk is not zero.  There will be some spin in the atmosphere.

As mentioned above, there remain questions about how far south and west to extend the severe weather threat.

Over the past 24 hours, the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the threat zone farther east-northeast.  That aligns more closely with what I put out yesterday.

At this time, I believe the risk will be higher over our far northeast and eastern counties.

The black line is where I believe the risk will be higher.  Along and east northeast of that line.

That does not mean there won’t be storms south and west of that line.  I believe the risk is a bit higher to the east-northeast of that line.

As always, monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App.

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I am watching a second system on Friday night and Saturday.

This system will likely bring additional chances of showers to the region.  Light showers.

It may be cold enough for a rain/snow mix on Saturday night.  At this time, we do not expect impactful snow.

As always, watch bridges and elevated surfaces if temperatures drop below freezing.

Let’s look at rain probabilities for that system.

This is for Friday night.  As you can see, there is a low-level chance of rain across mainly our southern counties.

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Saturday during the day.  Scattered showers will be possible across the region.

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Saturday night rain and rain/snow chances.  Rain may end as snow.  We do not expect impacts from the snow.

Here are the precipitation probabilities for Saturday night (what is the % chance of precipitation).

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The rain will come to an end by Sunday.

Sunday and Monday will be colder.  Wind chill values will be even colder.

Sunday morning low temperatures.

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Monday morning low temperatures.

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