Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Thursday through Sunday

The next weather concern will be a cold front on Thursday and Friday.  Another system is possible late Friday night through Saturday night.

The Thursday cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast.

A warm front will move across the region early on Thursday.  This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Small hail will be possible with those storms.

You can see some lightning activity on the EC model.

The graphic shows that lightning may develop early Thursday morning.  It would then move northeast into Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky.

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Questions remain on the coverage of the precipitation on Thursday afternoon and night.  A lot of data shows scattered precipitation.  There is quite a bit of data that keeps our region mostly dry from this system.

For now, I do have at least 30% to 40% chances of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday night for much of the region.

Chances will be 40% to 60% over northern portions of southern Illinois, southeast Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.  See the graphics below.

At least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in front of the cold front.  The chance will be a bit higher over Illinois and Kentucky.  A bit lower over Missouri and Tennessee.

I can show you the precipitation probabilities.  That will give you the general idea of what I am thinking for this system.

This first graphic is for late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.  A few showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the warm front.

As you can see, the chances are higher east-northeast than west-southwest.

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Here are the Thursday (daytime) shower and thunderstorm probabilities.  Most likely, after the morning chances, it will be quiet until late in the day.

Notice how the chances are higher to our north and east.  Lower chances as you travel west-southwest.

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Here are the Thursday night probabilities.   Again, they are skewed to the east northeast.

Lower chances in Missouri.  Higher chances over Kentucky and Tennessee.

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Some thunderstorms may be intense.   As mentioned at the top of the blog post.

The primary concern would be gusty winds and small hail.  The tornado risk is not zero.  There will be some spin in the atmosphere.

As mentioned above, there remain questions about how far south and west to extend the severe weather threat.

At this time, I believe the risk will be higher over our far northeast and eastern counties.

The black line is where I believe the risk will be higher.  Along and east northeast of that line.

As always, monitor updates.  Adjustments are possible.  This event is still more than 48 hours away.

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The EC lightning forecast does show some convection (thunderstorms).

As you can see, it does pop some lightning in our region.  It is a bit farther west-southwest than other data.  I am monitoring trends.

This is for Thursday.  You can see the morning storms around 12 to 18z (6 AM to 12 PM).  Then, the storms later in the day/evening, as well.

The graphic is in Zulu time.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.  00z=6 pm.

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Let’s look at some of the AI model data.

The AI model aligns fairly well with the Storm Prediction Center’s risk assessment for severe weather.

This is for Thursday afternoon and evening.

Over the last few days, they have held steady on the idea that the risk is slightly higher to the east-northeast.  This far out, I am monitoring for shifts and trends.

The AI modeling of the hail risk zone.

The green and yellow zone is where the risk is a bit higher.

Double-click these images to enlarge them.

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The AI modeling  damaging wind risk zone.

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The AI modeling of the tornado risk zone.  This may be a bit too far south.  I will see how it trends.

I would put the risk a bit higher over Illinois and Indiana.

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I am watching a second system on Friday night and Saturday.

This system will likely bring additional chances of showers to the region.

It may be cold enough for a rain/snow mix.  At this time, we do not expect impactful snow because temperatures won’t be cold enough.

I will, however, keep a close eye on it.  If anything changes, then I will let you know.

A few of the guidance packages bring the system in slightly stronger, with more moisture.

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