Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

February 16th through February 22nd

Current risk:  MONITOR UPDATES.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence.

Comments: A few of the thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and night could be strong.  I can’t rule out severe weather.  A lot of data points the threat slightly farther east-northeast.  Monitor updates.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  POSSIBLE.  A chance of lightning on Thursday and Thursday night.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR.  I am watching a cold front on Thursday and Thursday night.  There could be enough instability to produce a few severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and night.  There remain questions on the placement of the severe threat.  Monitor updates over the coming days.

..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.     

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  UNLIKELY.   

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  NO.

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  NO.   

7.  Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.

Dense fog this morning could cause patchy slick spots on bridges and overpasses.

Double-click on the graphic to enlarge it.

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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

I am monitoring late this week for the chance of thunderstorms.

In particular, I am watching on Thursday afternoon and night.  A few of the storms could be intense.

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The Storm Prediction Center has issued a low risk of severe weather for Thursday afternoon and evening.

This is still several days out. Shifts of the yellow outlined area are likely.  For now, I am monitoring trends in the guidance.

I will know more tomorrow and Wednesday.

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The Paducah, Kentucky, NWS posted this graphic.

Again, as noted above, the threat may shift slightly farther east-northeast.  It will be close and is something that I will be monitoring over the coming days.

Double-click on the image to enlarge it.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast

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This afternoon

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My daily video

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Forecast discussion

•   Here comes the warm temperatures.  Spring-like temperatures.
•   I am monitoring several cold fronts.

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What is the primary weather concern?

Watch out for patchy dense fog this morning.

Watch for patchy slick spots on bridges and overpasses.  The moisture from the fog could freeze on surfaces.

No significant weather concerns today through Thursday morning.

Warm temperatures.  Gusty winds from time to time.

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This morning through Wednesday

These were the 5 am temperatures.

A chilly morning.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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We are waking up to chilly temperatures and dense fog.  The fog could be freezing fog in some areas.  This could cause bridges and overpasses to develop a thin layer of ice.  Use care.

We did have widespread rain in the region over the weekend.  For many (not all), it underperformed.  We ended up with a widespread 0.25″ to 0.80″ of rain.  We were expecting a widespread 0.70″ to 1.40″ of rain.

We needed that rain.  It underperforming doesn’t help our drought situation.

The good news is that some areas did pick up a decent soaking rain. Just not everyone.

Today will be a bit warmer ahead of our next storm system.

As a matter of fact, it will be quite warm this week.  At times, near record high temperatures.

Just look at the temperature anomaly map for Wednesday afternoon.  This shows you how many degrees above average tempertures will be.

Double click on the image to enlarge it.

Those are some big anomalies.  That equals high temperatures in the 70s.

Today’s high temperatures.

Well above seasonal averages.

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Tuesday’s high temperatures

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Thursday through Sunday

The primary weather concern will be a cold front on Thursday and Friday.  Another system is possible Friday night into Saturday night, but confidence on the second system is a bit lower.

The Thursday/Friday front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast.

Questions remain on the coverage of the precipitation.  A lot of data shows scattered precipitation.  A lot of data shows higher chances over Illinois and Kentucky vs Missouri and Tennessee.

This portion of the forecast will need to be monitored as we draw closer to the time-frame in question (THU/FRI).

Some thunderstorms may be strong.

There are a few ingredients for severe weather.

That includes wind shear and CAPE.  I am monitoring the moisture return.  If dew points (moisture) ends up a bit higher, then the threat of severe weather will increase.  Monitor updates.

Let’s look at the CAPE numbers.  CAPE is the instability that thunderstorms tap into.   CAPE can help produce severe weather.

The EC ensemble guidance does show CAPE in our region on Thursday afternoon and night.

The general idea behind these ensemble graphics is that the more squares that agree, the higher the probability of the outcome.

As you can see, almost all the squares have some CAPE in our region.

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Wind fields aloft will be plenty strong for severe thunderstorms.  That is called wind shear.

Wind shear is the increase in wind speed with height.  Wind shear is the change of wind direction with height.  Both will be available on Thursday afternoon and night.

The only real question is moisture levels.  Dew points.  If dew points pop into the upper fifties or sixties, then the risk of severe weather will increase.

This will be monitored over the next few days.

Here are the EC model dew points

Double click images to enlarge them.

Here are the GFS model dew points.  The GFS dew points are a bit higher.

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The EC lightning forecast does show some convection (thunderstorms).

Notice how it is skewed a bit over IL, IN, and KY.  Less coverage south and west.

That doesn’t mean it is right.  It is something that I will monitor.

This does line up with where the Storm Prediction Center has their severe weather threat outlined.

Again, here is that Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather outline for Thursday PM.

As noted above, the threat may shift slightly farther east-northeast.  It will be close and is something that I will be monitoring over the coming days.

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As mentioned above, the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS posted this graphic.

Double-click on the image to enlarge it.

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That does line up with some of the AI models.

This is for Thursday afternoon and evening.

The AI modeling of the tornado risk zone.  I will be monitoring these maps for trends over the coming days.

The AI modeling  wind risk zone.

The AI modeling  hail risk zone.

The AI modeling wind risk zone.

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Rain showers may continue into Friday.

I am watching a second disturbance on Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday.

Guidance is all over the place with that system.

The GFS is showing snow.  Other models are showing rain or nothing at all.  I will monitor trends on that system.

The EC model ensembles do not show any snow threat on Saturday or Sunday.

These are the EC model ensembles.  Again, the idea is that the ore squares that agree, the higher the confidence in the final forecast outcome.

This is the EC snow forecast for Friday night through Sunday.  As you can see, it keeps the snow to our north.

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The EC guidance does show rain chances Friday night and Saturday.

For now, I will keep rain chances low from Friday night into Sunday, but I may need to increase those if confidence in a second system does verify.

It will be cooler by the weekend.

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