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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Wednesday night and Thursday. Lightning will be possible next Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. A few storms could be severe Thursday. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that will be highly dependent on how much instability develops. The primary concern will be the strong and gusty winds.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain will be possible Wednesday night and Thursday. A few ditches and streams could flood. Field flooding, as well.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Thursday night.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Unlikely.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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February 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Windy. Mild. Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South 20 to 40 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong wind gusts could bring down tree limbs.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 5:36 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Windy. Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Strong winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the radars
Moonrise: 5:41 PM
Moonset: 7:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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February 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Windy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. A few storms could be severe. Falling temperatures behind the cold front. The rain may mix with sleet or snow over northern portions of southeast Missouri and the northern half of southern Illinois during the late afternoon hours. No accumulation.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 55° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 64° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South 25 to 45 mph. Gusty. Wind becoming west northwest behind the cold front.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Strong winds. A few storms could produce wind damage and even a short-lived tornado.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 5:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Clearing. A chance of evening rain or snow showers. Precipitation ending. Turning colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 22° / SE MO 15° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 15° to 20° / South IL 15° to 20° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° / West KY 20° to 22° / NW TN 20° to 22°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early. Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:45 PM
Moonset: 7:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 38° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° / West KY 40° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 7:50 PM
Moonset: 8:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 50° / South IL 46° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 5:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 30° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 8:54 PM
Moonset: 8:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 55° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 5:41 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 10:00 PM
Moonset: 8:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 21, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of an afternoon shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 60° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 5:42 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 11:09 PM
Moonset: 9:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
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Today through February 20th High non-thunderstorm winds are possible today into Thursday. Gusts could top 40 mph. These will be associated with rapidly rising and falling barometric pressure. A tight pressure gradient. In addition to the above, a few storms could become severe Thursday. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. A short-lived tornado can’t be ruled out if instability is higher. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- High winds possible today into Thursday. Pressure gradient winds.
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight and continue into Thursday.
- A few storms could become severe Thursday. This will be highly dependent on instability developing. Damaging wind is the primary concern. A short-lived tornado can’t be ruled out (that will depend on instability developing).
- Active weather next week with multiple chances of precipitation.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
The primary weather story today will be the mild temperatures and high winds. Wind gusts today could easily top 40 mph. I would not be surprised if a few locations experience gusts above 50 mph. This is because of a tight barometric pressure gradient. This causes strong wind gusts.
You can see that pressure gradient on this weather map.
Those black lines are equal lines of barometric pressure. The tighter they are grouped together, the strong wind gusts will be. They are tightly packed together today. This will last into tomorrow evening.
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Widespread rain.
Showers and thunderstorms will rapidly spread into the region tonight and tomorrow.
Some of the rain will be locally heavy. I am forecasting a widespread 0.8 to 1.6″ of rain. There could be pockets exceeding two inches in some counties. This won’t cause widespread flash flooding, but it could definitely cause rapid rises on some streams/creeks, some ditch flooding, and some field flooding. Avoid flooded roadways.
Severe Weather Concerns?
The big question, over the past week, has been whether or not our region would experience a few severe thunderstorms Thursday. I have been watching this for days. Even at this late hour, there remain questions.
The National Weather Service is on the fence, as well.
Both the Memphis and Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service offices have said that the risk of severe weather is highly conditional on instability building behind the morning rain shield.
Here is what the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service had to say about the severe weather threat.
Double click images on the blog to enlarge them.
CAPE is a measure of instability in the atmosphere. Think of it as energy for thunderstorms to tap into. During the winter months we typically have very strong wind fields aloft and low CAPE at the surface.
We call this a low CAPE high wind shear environment. It does not take much CAPE to produce severe thunderstorms (during the winter months). CAPE values below 1000 can be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. During the spring and summer months we typically have CAPE values much higher than 1000.
The strong wind fields aloft can make up for the lack of CAPE during the winter months.
Strong wind shear is an ingredient for severe thunderstorm development. Wind shear is the change of wind speed and wind direction with height.
Thursday will certainly provide plenty of wind shear. Wind shear will be near the top of the charts, as a matter of fact. Very strong winds aloft.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms, during the morning hours, will help keep CAPE from developing early in the day.
The question becomes late morning into the afternoon hours. Will there be a break in the rain? Will there be enough of a break for CAPE to develop? Those questions remain on the table.
If CAPE does develop then thunderstorms will tap into that CAPE and should be able to bring down higher wind gusts. If we have enough CAPE there could even be a few QLCS tornadoes. QLCS tornadoes typically last a few minutes. Short-lived. They can cause damage. A tornado is a tornado.
I will be closely monitoring radars and conditions Thursday. Make sure to monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app. Monitor updates.
Much colder air will arrive behind Thursday’s cold front. Temperatures will rapidly fall.
The deeper moisture will leave the area by the time temperatures are cold enough for measurable snow or ice. I can’t rule out a brief period of a wintry mix, but I am not expecting any accumulation.
Dry weather Friday into Monday.
A series of storm systems will impact the region next week. At this time, it appears that most of this will be rain. I will need to closely monitor next week. There will be colder air to our north. If one of the systems can tap into that colder air then wintry precipitation would be the end result. For now, I am monitoring trends.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 15tth through February 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers February 23rd through March 1st
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 1st to March 14th
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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