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Let’s all stay safe today into tomorrow. Avoid flooded roadways.
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I have some question and answer threads over on the Facebook page. Link to those threads CLICK HERE
Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com —> send me your rainfall totals and flood reports.
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Video Update From the NWS. This covers the flooding ands now.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Bottom Line Up Front. An active weather pattern into next week.
- A significant flash flood threat will impact portions of our region today and tonight. I can’t rule out some locations receiving more than six inches of rain. This is very concerning. Avoid flooded roadways. The hardest hit areas will likely extend from the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee.
- A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Mainly over Tennessee and Kentucky. The threat will be damaging wind and perhaps a tornado or two (short-lived). There remain questions about how far north to extend the severe threat. I will keep an eye on it.
- The rain may end briefly as light snow showers Saturday night/Sunday. Turning sharply colder. Watch for black ice Saturday night/Sunday morning. Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the cold front. Gusty winds may help dry surfaces. That would mitigate issues.
- Sunday night/Monday morning lows will dip into the single digits north and teens south. Wind chill values will range from -5 to 15 above. Bitterly cold through the week. The coldest nights may end up being Wednesday and Thursday night.
- A snow storm is likely Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Several inches of snow will be possible. Stay tuned. Confidence is increasing that it will snow. Widespread travel impacts are likely.
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Here Are Your Beau Dodson Weather Radars And Lightning Data
Don’t forget the local city-view radars have a winterize button. Click that button to see precipitation type.
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
*NEW* Zoom interactive radar (with storm chaser streams)
https://wtalk.co/AVWG7GM7
Real time lightning tracker system two.
https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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Bottom Line Up Front
Flash Flooding Threat
** Flash flooding likely today and tonight across portions of the area. Flooding will linger into Sunday. Larger rivers will continue to flood for a while. Avoid flooded roadways. **
This Afternoon and Evening. Severe Weather Threat.
Tuesday and Wednesday Snow Potential
A PDS (particularly dangerous situation) flash flood watch has been issued. This is for today into Sunday morning.
Numerous flash flood warnings are anticipated from this event. Some historic rain totals are possible. This is a dangerous situation. Avoid flooded roadways.
Here is the current flood watch zone (in green).
I expect the heaviest rain and highest impacts to occur from the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Impacts should be lower of our north northwest counties.
Here is a potential rainfall graphic posted by the NWS.
You can double click this image to enlarge it.
We are very concerned about a band of larger rain totals across some counties. Widespread flooding will be the end result.
Double click images to enlarge them.
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We also have a risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.
The light green zone is sub-severe.
The dark green zone is a low-level one marginal risk.
The yellow zone is a level two slight risk. Yellow is the highest risk of the three.
The concern will be damaging wind and tornadoes.
There remain some questions about how far north the warm front will push. The farther north the warm front pushes, the higher the risk of severe weather locally.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App, as always.
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** UPDATED AT 7 AM **
This is the NEW graphics.
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Tornado Outlook
Hatched means strong tornadoes are possible.
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Would you like to receive a phone call when a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued?
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Future-cast Radars.
What radar might look like over the next 24 hours.
Here is the high resolution Hrrr future-cast radar.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
The time stamp is in zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
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Snow Potential Is Increasing Next Tuesday and Wednesday
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I am tracking more precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday. Model guidance is showing snow in our region. Cold temperatures, as well.
Chances are increasing for a widespread snow event.
Typically, snow ratios are 10:1. That means 0.25″ of liquid equals 2.5″ of snow. We might be looking at 15:1 or higher snow rations. A dry fluffy snow. That could increase snow totals.
Here is what the WPC/NOAA posted for snow next Tuesday and Wednesday.
What is the probability of 3″ or more of snow?
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Future-cast Radars.
What radar might look like next Tuesday and Wednesday
Blue is snow. Red/purple represent ice. Green and yellow represent rain.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
The time stamp is in zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
This is the GFS model.
The exact track and intensity of the system will be the determining factor as to how much snow falls.
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Let’s look at some totals.
What is the probability of 4 to 6+ inches of snow?
This is the European model.
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What is the chance of two or more inches of snow?
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Bitterly cold air filters into the region Sunday into much of next week. Some locations will stay below freezing for five days. It will feel like winter.
Check out these lows.
Double click images to enlarge them.
Sunday morning lows
Monday morning lows
Tuesday morning lows
Wednesday morning lows
Thursday morning lows
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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