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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

A new winter storm blog post has been made for today through Thursday.

The NORMAL blog will return FRIDAY

Here is that link

https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-16th-through-february-18th-2021-winter-storm-updates/

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All of Beau’s Facebook Q&A Thread
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

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A new winter storm blog post has been made for today through Thursday.

Here is that link

https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-16th-through-february-18th-2021-winter-storm-updates/

 

 

All of Beau’s Facebook Q&A Thread
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

 

The NORMAL blog will return FRIDAY

February 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16°    SE MO 12° to 15°    South IL  12° to 14°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  12° to 14°    West KY 12° to 15°    NW TN 14° to 16°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads.  Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 5:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 4° to 8°     SE  MO 0° to 5°     South IL  0° to 5°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 4° to 6°    West KY 3° to 6°     NW TN 4° to 8°
Wind direction and speed: East 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads.  Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:27  AM
Moonset:  10:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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THE REGULAR BLOG WILL RETURN FRIDAY.  See the winter storm blog for fresh information.

February 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy.  Snow developing.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25°    SE MO 20° to 25°    South IL  20° to 25°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20° to 25°    West KY 22° to 25°    NW TN 23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: East 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 5:38 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Snow likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80%    IL ~ 80%    KY ~ 80%    TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 18° to 22°     SE  MO 14° to 18°     South IL 14° to 18°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 14° to 18°    West KY 14° to 18°     NW TN 18° to 22°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads.  Low wind chill values.  Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:52  AM
Moonset:  11:28 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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February 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Snow and sleet likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90%    IL ~ 90%    KY ~ 90%    TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30°    SE MO 23° to 26°    South IL  23° to 26°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  23° to 26°    West KY 24° to 28°    NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: N NE 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads.  Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Snow likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 8° to 12°     SE  MO 8° to 10°     South IL  5° to 10°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 8° to 12°    West KY 8° to 12°     NW TN 8° to 14°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 10:20  AM
Moonset:  6:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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February 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28°    SE MO 23° to 26°    South IL  23° to 26°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  23° to 26°    West KY 24° to 28°    NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 5:40 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy dense freezing fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 18°     SE  MO 12° to 15°     South IL  12° to 15°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 12° to 15°    West KY 12° to 15°     NW TN 14° to 16°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads.  Fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor fog conditions.
Moonrise: 10:50  AM
Moonset:  12:25 AM
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

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February 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Morning fog possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36°    SE MO 30° to 35°    South IL  30° to 35°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30° to 35°    West KY 32° to 35°    NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Dense fog.  Icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor fog conditions.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 5:41 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy freezing fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28°     SE  MO 20° to 25°     South IL  20° to 25°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25°    West KY 22° to 25°     NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads may remain in the region.  Fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:26  AM
Moonset:  1:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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February 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Low Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38°    SE MO 33° to 36°    South IL  33° to 36°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  33° to 36°    West KY 34° to 38°    NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 5:42 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 25°     SE  MO 20° to 25°     South IL  20° to 25°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25°    West KY 20° to 25°     NW TN 20° to 25°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:07  PM
Moonset:  2:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns). 

Please refer to the long range video until that time.

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Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through February 25th.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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Weather advice:

A new winter storm blog post has been made for today through Thursday.

Here is that link

https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-16th-through-february-18th-2021-winter-storm-updates/

 

 

 

Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

1. 1.   See the winter storm blog for details.

 

 

The NORMAL blog will return FRIDAY

 

For the current discussion see the Winter Storm Blog link.

A new winter storm blog post has been made for today through Thursday.

Here is that link

https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-16th-through-february-18th-2021-winter-storm-updates/

February 16, 2021

I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog.  Active Updates.  Link.

Today’s Facebook post https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather/posts/4245734435456032

80% of the area verified the last 36 hours with snow totals.  A widespread 5 to 10 inches of snow impacted the region.  Some areas received over 10 inches of snow.

I will post some maps once the NWS finishes them.

There were also areas that only received 1.5 to 5 inches of snow.  Seems this happens every snowstorm.  Some have more and some have less.  Extremely difficult to forecast county to county.

I always ask people to focus on impacts and not totals.  Impacts are icy roads and bitterly cold temperatures.  Whether you end up with a few inches of snow or many inches of snow.  Icy roads are icy roads.

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More snow and ice are on the way.

Pay attention to the details.  Two waves of precipitation.  See future-cast radars.

To say that every meteorologist is worn out would be a complete understatement!  We have been going for days on end.

Don’t be confused by the advisories and watches.  Read what I wrote.  I know different NWS offices are issuing different products..

The first wave of snow arrives tonight.  The bulk of that event will fall across southeast Missouri.  A winter weather advisory has been issued for that area.

One to three inches of snow will be possible over southeast Missouri.

The snow will also spread int southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.  Totals in these areas should be less than two inches.

The NWS did not issue an advisory further east, for now.  Could they?  Yes, if data supports a bit more snow.  Speaking of the tonight event into early morning Wednesday.

Either way, focus on impacts and not totals.  Additional snow on roadways.

That wave will quickly be joined by another major winter storm that will form along the Gulf of Mexico and move east/northeast.

BIG questions remain about the track of that system.  Confidence is low.

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System two:

I have been saying for days that it favors a more southern track.  How far south is the question.  Will it miss us?  I believe portions of the region may miss out.  Mainly northern counties.  The question is how to define northern.  That portion of the forecast is being worked out.

The snow and ice favors the Missouri Bootheel, portions of western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will  be possible in those areas.

What determines precipitation type?  Temperatures aloft!

We had sleet Monday with temperatures in the lower teens.  Quite amazing.

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A winter storm watch has been issued for the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee.  That area is covered by the Memphis, Tennessee, NWS.

The NWS in Paducah, Kentucky, held off on issuing a watch further north.  They are going to monitor today’s data.

Areas further north may have some light precipitation but totals should be less.  If it tracks far enough south some areas may remain dry.  That is a possibility.

For now, I am closely monitoring data and trends to determine snow and ice totals.

Obviously, if it tracks further south then totals Wednesday afternoon into Thursday will be lower.

Monitor updates.  I will keep this page updated through the event.

Cold air will linger into the weekend but will begin to relax. Deep snowpack, over most of the area, will not help our temperature cause.  It will help keep temperatures lower.

With that said, a small warming trend will begin Friday into next week.

Once the snow melts, temperatures will easily rebound.

Hopefully, all of this snow and ice does not melt with warm temperatures.  The rivers would then be a concern.  There is so much snow over a large area.  A slow warm-up would be better vs a strong one.

Spring is not far off.

Let’s look at some graphics.

A winter storm watch has been issued for portions of the area.  This is mainly for the Wednesday afternoon and Thursday snow event.  Some snow possible late tonight, as well.

Pin is the warning zone.  The blue zone will transition to a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory later today.  The NWS will do that.

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A winter weather advisory has been issued by the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS, for tonight.

The Paducah, Kentucky, NWS did not show the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee on their graphic.

Don’t be confused.  The Bootheel and northwest Tennessee are under a winter storm watch tonight and tomorrow into Thursday.

They just did not show it here.

This is for the event tonight and early Wednesday.  A light snow is likely over the winter weather advisory.  The forecast is one to three inches.

Areas further east could be added if confidence increases that snow totals will reach that high tonight into Wednesday morning.  For now, totals further east (during that time-frame) appear lower.  Not reaching winter weather advisory criteria.  Again, that is tonight and Wednesday morning with system one.

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The NWS in St Louis shows you their winter weather advisory for tonight into Wednesday evening.

This is for mainly light snow tonight and tomorrow.  Again, areas further east could be added, but for now totals further east appear lighter.

 

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Wind chill values will be dangerously low over the coming 24 to 48 hours.  Use care.  Frostbite is likely.

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St Louis, Missouri, NWS graphic concerning the cold weather.

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Today’s social media links

Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather/posts/4242947232401419

Winter Storm Blog
https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-11th-through-february-16th-2021-winter-storm-updates/

Interactive-city-view radars. Winter weather radar. Click winterize to see precipitation type.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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Future-cast radars

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Purple is sleet.  Pink is freezing rain.

You can see wave one tonight and early Wednesday morning.  Quickly followed by wave two.

Notice how far north or south each system tracks.  Questions remain on the larger southern wave of precipitation.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Purple is sleet.  Pink is freezing rain.

You can see wave one tonight and early Wednesday morning.  Quickly followed by wave two.

Notice how far north or south each system tracks.  Questions remain on the larger southern wave of precipitation.

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.This next animation is the NAM American Weather Model.

 

Check your WeatherTalk accounts.

Please check your www.weathertalk.com account to make sure your payment information is up to date.  Log in.  If you see “yellow colors” then it has not been updated.  It will say free account.  Click the update payment tab and go from there.  I appreciate it.

If you want to know when I send out a new winter weather social media alert then make sure you have this turned on in your www.weathertalk.com account

If you have questions or problems then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Find that here

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Note:  We added a “see all” button on the website.  This allows you to see every message that I have sent out (to all my forecast counties).

Here is the link.  Click here.

 

To view the live radars, visit these links.

Radars

Interactive city-view radars
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

A third backup radar
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Clickable watches and warnings can be viewed on the local city-view interactive radars (link above). Be sure and turn on the warnings above the local radars.

A new regional radar we offer
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Lightning data
https://wtalk.co/7QT7WHKU

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