Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 14, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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48-hour forecast



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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning will be possible Wednesday night and Thursday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Monitor.  A few storms could be locally strong Thursday.  Monitor updates.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Monitor.  Locally heavy rain will be possible Thursday.  

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  No.

5.  Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast?   Low chance.  A small chance Thursday as colder air arrives behind our storm system.

6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees?  No.

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February 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Monday Forecast:   Some morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~  0% /  the rest of SE MO ~  0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50°  /  SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° /  South IL 44° to 48°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°  /  West KY 44° to 48° /  NW TN 48° to 50°
Winds will be from the:  South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset:  5:34 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~  0% /  the rest of SE MO ~  0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° /  SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° /  South IL 24° to 28° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° /  West KY 24° to 28° /  NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the:  South southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Moonrise: 3:35 PM
Moonset: 5:52 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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February 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Tuesday Forecast:   Mostly sunny.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~  0% /  the rest of SE MO ~  0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65°  /  SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° /  South IL 56° to 60°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60°  /  West KY 60° to 65° /  NW TN 62° to 65°
Winds will be from the:  South southwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset:  5:35 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~  0% /  the rest of SE MO ~  0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° /  SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 42° /  South IL 40° to 44° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° /  West KY 40° to 45° /  NW TN 44° to 46°
Winds will be from the:  South southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Moonrise: 4:37 PM
Moonset: 6:30 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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February 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Wednesday Forecast:   Increasing clouds.  Breezy.  A chance of mainly afternoon showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated during the afternoon
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°  /  SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° /  South IL 62° to 65°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65°  /  West KY 63° to 66° /  NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the:  South 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2.  Low.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset:  5:36 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with  showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 100%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% /  the rest of South IL ~ 90%  /  West KY ~ 90%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90%  /  NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° /  SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° /  South IL 40° to 45° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° /  West KY 45° to 50° /  NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the:  South 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   Monitor the radars
Moonrise: 5:41 PM
Moonset: 7:04 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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February 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast:   Mostly cloudy. Windy. Showers and thunderstorms.  Turning colder.  Rain may mix with or change to snow (especially over MO/IL).  Monitor the forecast concerning wintry precipitation.  Lower confidence on that occurring.  I will need to monitor trends in the guidance.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 90%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% /  the rest of South IL ~ 90%  /  West KY ~ 90%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90%  /  NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56°  /  SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° /  South IL 46° to 50°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48°  /  West KY 48° to 54° /  NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the:  South 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.  Wind becoming west northwest at 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset:  5:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers.  Precipitation ending.  Turning colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~  30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 22° /  SE MO 15° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 15° to 20° /  South IL 15° to 20° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° /  West KY 20° to 22° /  NW TN 20° to 22°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:45 PM
Moonset: 7:34 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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February 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~  0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42°  /  SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° /  South IL 38° to 40°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40°  /  West KY 40° to 42° /  NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset:  5:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~  0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° /  SE MO 20° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 25° /  South IL 20° to 25° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° /  West KY 22° to 25° /  NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the:  Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 7:50 PM
Moonset: 8:02 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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February 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~  0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54°  /  SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 50° /  South IL 46° to 50°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50°  /  West KY 48° to 52° /  NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset:  5:39 PM
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Saturday  night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~  0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° /  SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 28° /  South IL 25° to 30° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° /  West KY 28° to 32° /  NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the:  Southeast 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 8:54 PM
Moonset: 8:28 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **


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Today through February 20th  I am watching a strong cold front Thursday.   There could be thunderstorms with this system.  Depending on the storm track, some of the thunderstorms could be intense.  Monitor updates moving forward.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

    1.    Calm weather today through most of Wednesday.
    2.    Showers and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.
    3.    Gusty winds Tuesday into Thursday.
    4.    Rain may end as snow showers Thursday afternoon and night.  Little or no accumulation.

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Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages.  We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner.  Thus, we made the app.  See links at the bottom of the page.

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Weather Discussion

A quiet weather pattern will continue today into Wednesday.  Temperatures will climb a bitter higher with each passing day.

You can see temperature surge ahead of our next cold front and then drop behind it.

Winds will begin to increase Tuesday into Wednesday with occasional gusts above 20 mph.

Our next storm system will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday evening.  A strong cold front will push into the region from the west/northwest and that will provide the lift for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

There will be no shortage of moisture with this system.  Thus, some locally heavy rain will be possible.

I am forecast a widespread 0.80″ to 1.60″ of rain with this system.  There will be pockets that exceed that.  There could be some runoff issues if the rain does come down hard enough.  That would mean some local water issues.  Mainly streams, ditches, creeks, and field flooding.

Widespread flooding or widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.

There could be some rumbles of thunder with this system, as well.

Severe weather will likely remain to our south.  I will need to keep a close eye on this.  If the low were to track further north, then a few storms could become severe in our local area.  For now, the risk appears to be greater further south of my forecast counties.  Monitor updates, as always.

You can see the moisture feed into this system.  These are dew points.  Dew point is a measure of moisture in the lower atmosphere.

And PWAT values will be quite high.  You can see the surge of higher dew points into our region on this animation.

The rain will come to an end Thursday evening/night.  There could be enough cold end for the rain to briefly change to snow showers or light snow.  At this time, accumulation (if any) is forecast to be light.  Monitor updates.

You can see the ensembles keep the snow to our north.

The EC model snow totals for this week.  Notice it places the snow north of our region.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Dry weather is forecast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

These maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

 

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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Time is in Zulu.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

 

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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Time is in Zulu.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Time is in Zulu.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Time is in Zulu.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Time is in Zulu.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.  

 

 

 

 

 

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers February 14tth through February 20th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers February 21st through February 27th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  50 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″

This outlook covers February 22nd through March 7th

The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.

Precipitation outlook

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Outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

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February Temperature Outlook

February Precipitation Outlook

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Winter Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

December, January, and February Temperature Outlook

 

December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook

Green represents above average precipitation.

EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

SPRING OUTLOOK

Temperatures

Precipitation.

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Monthly Outlooks

March Temperature Outlook

March Precipitation Outlook

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April Temperature Outlook

April Precipitation Outlook

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May Temperature outlook

May Precipitations Outlook

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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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