February 12, 2025: Unsettled weather to continue. Active pattern.

Good morning, everyone.

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Here is my latest seven day video update

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Bottom Line Up Front. An active weather pattern into next week.

Rain redevelops today! Active pattern continues. A brief period of freezing rain possible for my far northwest counties. Otherwise, this is a plain old rain event.
Rain may briefly end as snow flurries tonight. Rapidly falling temperatures. Watch for black ice (puddles or moisture left over from the rain, that then freezes).
Dry and cold Thursday into Friday afternoon.
Rain returns Friday night into Saturday night. Locally heavy rain is likely. A flood watch may be necessary.
The rain may end as snow showers Saturday night/Sunday. Turning sharply colder.
Sunday night lows will dip into the teens. Wind chill values will range from 0 to 15 above.
I am watching another system next Tuesday/Wednesday. That could bring winter weather, but it is still early for certainties.

Here Are Your Beau Dodson Winter Weather Radars

Don’t forget the local city-view radars have a winterize button. Click that button to see precipitation type.

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

*NEW* Zoom interactive radar (with storm chaser streams)
https://wtalk.co/AVWG7GM7

Today and Tonight’s Weather

Rainfall totals today and tonight. Double click the rainfall graphics to enlarge them.

There is a brief window of opportunity for freezing rain and sleet this morning over small portions of southeast MO and southern IL

There is a winter weather advisory for Ste Genevieve and Randolph Counties. That advisory runs from this morning into the afternoon (but the freezing rain and sleet should change to rain before noon. I will monitor it and send out some app alerts for that area, if necessary)

Area impacted
Ste Genevieve County, MO
Randolph County, IL
NWS, St Louis

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING

WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet accumulations of a dusting to a half inch with a light glaze of ice.

WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri.

WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

Here were the 5 AM temperatures. Above freezing over most of the region.

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Here are all the winter weather watches and warnings. A big winter storm to our north and northwest!

Here is what the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS said about today’s rain vs ice line. Our forecasts line up nicely.

Future-cast Radars. What radar might look like today and tonight.

This is the Hrrr future-cast radar for today and tonight.

Blue is snow. Red is ice. Purple is sleet. Green and yellow represent rain.

Double click the animations to enlarge them.

The time stamp is in zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Weekend Weather

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Weekend Flooding Concerns?

We already have river flooding ongoing in the region. Additional rain won’t be welcome.

There could also be some overland field flooding, ditches flooded, sharp rises on streams, and flooded roadways.

Locally heavy rain with some embedded thunderstorms are likely Friday night into Saturday evening.

We will need to monitor rain totals, especially over Kentucky and Tennessee.

I expect the NWS to issue a flood watch for portions of the region. That would most likely be for the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee. I will monitor the rest of the area.
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Seven Day Rainfall Totals.

Locally heavy rain is likely this weekend.

A flood or flash flood watch is likely for portions of the region.

Here is the map that the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS posted concerning the heavy rain threat.

A few thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, as well.

For now, we do not expect severe weather.

Severe weather is likely to our south on Saturday.

Here is where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Temperatures spike on Saturday and then plummet Sunday and Sunday night.

Saturday temperatures

Monday morning temperatures

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Future-cast Radars. What radar might look like Friday night into Saturday night.

Here is the GFS future-cast radar for the Friday night and Saturday event.

Blue is snow. Red is ice. Green and yellow represent rain.

Double click the animations to enlarge them.

The time stamp is in zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

This is the Friday and Saturday system on the GFS model.

Winter weather next week?

I am tracking more precipitation towards the middle of next week. For now, I am watching Tuesday and Wednesday. Model guidance is showing snow in our region. Cold, as well.

It is a bit early for certainties on next week’s system.

Future-cast Radars. What radar might look like next Tuesday and Wednesday

Blue is snow. Red is ice. Green and yellow represent rain.

Double click the animations to enlarge them.

The time stamp is in zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

This is the GFS model. One of many models.

Confidence in next week’s system is low. It is still seven to eight days away. That is a long time in the world of weather.

Colder air next week. Below average temperatures are likely.

I am tracking three precipitation events. One today and tonight. One Friday night into Saturday night. Another one towards the middle of next week.

Widespread rain will develop this morning and spread across the region. Perhaps beginning as a wintry mix over my far northwest counties. Any impacts would be limited. Temperatures are marginal for frozen precipitation.

Damp day ahead of us.

Rain continues early tonight. Tapering as we move through the night. There could be a few snow flurries tonight, as well.

Colder air filters into the region tonight/tomorrow morning. Watch for black ice tonight/tomorrow morning.

Check out the Thursday morning lows. Brrr.

Thursday will be dry and cold.

Dry Thursday night. Cold temperatures, again.

Here are the Thursday morning lows. Double click the image to enlarge it.

Friday morning will be dry. The afternoon may be dry, as well.

Clouds will begin to increase on Friday ahead of our next area of low pressure.

That system will bring widespread rain to the region. The Gulf will be wide open with moisture streaming northward.

Locally heavy rain will develop on Saturday. A few thunderstorms, as well. This event could lead to flooding, as mentioned above.

I suspect the NWS will pop a flood or flash flood watch for portions of the region on Saturday.

Avoid flooded roadways, as always. Sometimes, you can’t tell what is under the water. The road or culverts could be washed away. Drive safely.

Dry air pours into the region late Saturday night. Along with rapidly falling temperatures.

I can’t rule out black ice Saturday night. Black ice forms when moisture is left over from rain and then it freezes.

The rain could also end as a brief wintry mix Saturday night/Sunday morning. A few snow showers are possible on Sunday.

Sunday into much of next week will be cold.

Check out the Monday morning wind chill values. Brrr.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Check out the waves of cold air next week on the GFS model.

This animation shows you the temperature anomalies. How much above or below average will temperatures be?

Normal highs for this time of the year are in the middle to upper 40s. Normal lows are in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Red is above average temperatures. Blue, pink, and purple are colder than average temperatures.

This is a cold outlook.

I am watching a system next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Models are all over the place with the intensity. Some showing a full blown winter storm. Other models showing flurries.

Here are three models.

Blue is snow.

GFS

European

Canadian

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NOAA and WPC see the potential winter threat next week, as well. Here is their first graphic concerning the event.

Here is the GEFS ensembles showing the probability of one inch of snow next week.

Let’s keep an eye on it.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.