February 12, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.
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No graphic today because each area has a variety of forecast details. Scroll down to the written forecast.
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All of Beau’s Facebook Q&A Thread
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

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Friday to Friday

I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.

1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. See the winter storm blog.

2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.

3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? N0.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Yes. Intervals of cold this weekend into the weekend. Monitor the wind chill value forecast.

I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.

All of Beau’s Facebook Q&A Thread
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

February 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of a flurry.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 5:32 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Snow flurries possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 18° SE MO 8° to 12° South IL 10° to 15° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 15° West KY 12° to 16° NW TN 14° to 18°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 5°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be bitterly cold.
Moonrise: 7:40 AM
Moonset: 6:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

February 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 5:33 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cold. Flurries possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 4° to 8° SE MO -2° to 5° South IL -2° to 6° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 4° to 8° West KY 6° to 12° NW TN 8° to 12°
Wind direction and speed: North 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 5°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be bitterly cold.
Moonrise: 8:10 AM
Moonset: 7:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

February 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of snow. Monitor.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 15° to 20° SE MO 12° to 15° South IL 12° to 15° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 12° to 15° West KY 12° to 15° NW TN 14° to 18°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Frostbite. Snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 5:35 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Cold. Snow developing late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 4° to 8° SE MO -2° to 5° South IL -4° to 5° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 3° to 6° West KY 3° to 6° NW TN 4° to 8°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 5°
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be bitterly cold. Frostbite.
Moonrise: 8:30 AM
Moonset: 8:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

February 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 18° SE MO 13° to 16° South IL 13° to 16° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 13° to 16° West KY 14° to 18° NW TN 14° to 18°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Icy roads. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 5:36 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy. Snow likely. Some accumulation possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 8° to 12° SE MO 8° to 10° South IL 5° to 10° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 8° to 12° West KY 8° to 12° NW TN 8° to 14°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Icy roads. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:02 AM
Moonset: 9:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).

Please refer to the long range video until that time.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through February 20th. Severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Icy road conditions. Icy sidewalks. Use care. Bitterly cold air this weekend into next week. Frostbite is a concern. Snow or snow/ice is possible Sunday night into Monday night. More wintry weather possible mid to late week.

I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.

Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

Weather Discussion

1. The regular blog will return tomorrow.
2. Two winter storms to track next week.

For the current discussion see the Winter Storm Blog link.

I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.

Key Points

1: Icy road conditions into the weekend.

2. There may be some thawing Friday with temperatures in the lower 30s.

3: Plan on bitterly cold air over the coming week. Frostbite, busted pipes, problems for outdoor pets, and increased number of house fires are all a concern.

4. A small chance of light flurries or freezing drizzle Friday night and Saturday. That would mainly be across the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

5: There are two winter storms to track. Some models show snow Sunday during the day (low confidence in that). Another system Sunday night into Monday night and then Wednesday into Friday. Monitor updates.

6. I will have Facebook Q&A Threads throughout the weekend and into next week.
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

Certanties:

Cold air will be with us today through most of next week.

It will snow Sunday night into Monday night. Some accumulation likely. A widespread one to four inches appears possible. Perhaps more. Snow ratios may be higher than normal.

Typically, one inch of liquid equals ten inches of snow. The snow ratios with this system may be greater than 15:1. That could help enhance snow totals.

Winter storm watches and/or winter weather advisories will be necessary Sunday night into Monday night. The NWS will issue those.

Uncertainties:

Questions remain about the amount of snow that will fall between Sunday and Friday.

The key to snowfall totals will be the track of each system. There are also questions about sleet mixing in Sunday night into Monday night.

There are questions about the Wednesday night into Friday time-frame, as well. Some models show enough warm air for freezing rain and sleet over portions of the region.

The EC model shows the late-week system nearing missing us.

Needless to say, there is enough uncertainty in the forecast to prevent confidence in precipitation amounts to be all that high.

Call to action:

Monitor updates. If you have travel plans over the coming week, then you will want to keep abreast of the latest changes in the forecast.

Take precautions against the bitterly cold air. Frostbite is likely with this type of weather. Outdoor animals will suffer, as well.

Historically, prolonged cold spells can cause expensive damage in our region.

Google how to keep your water pipes from freezing.

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app. Download it from the app store. It is under Weather Talk.

TURN ON YOUR BEAU DODSON WEATHER TALK APP. Make sure it is on. Make sure you have not accidentally logged out of the app.

For downloads: Apple users click here. Android users click here

Winter Weather Radars.

The local-city-view radars have a winterize button. Click it (once you are on the radar page).

Interactive city-view radars
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

A third backup radar
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Clickable watches and warnings can be viewed on the local city-view interactive radars (link above). Be sure and turn on the warnings above the local radars.

A new regional radar we offer. This also shows you precipitation type.
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Lightning data
https://wtalk.co/7QT7WHKU

February 12, 2021

I will keep this area updated. You can check back throughout the day and night for fresh information.

At times, I may delete the old information to free up space on the page. That way it loads faster.

Forecast Discussion:

A busy weather pattern is underway.

First, we continue to have widespread icy road conditions across the four-state area. Some freezing drizzle fell overnight. Use care when you step outside. There have been numerous reports of people falling on the ice and breaking bones.

It will be cold today but not extremely cold. Highs will pop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Areas with a bit more snow/sleet on the ground may stay a tad colder.

It will become bitterly cold tonight into next week. Wind chill values will dip into the single digits to below zero. Actual air temperatures will dip into the single digits and teens tonight. Coldest over northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Not quite as cold over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.

Highs Friday

Click on the images to enlarge them.

Lows Friday night

Highs Saturday

Lows Saturday night

Highs Sunday

Lows Sunday night

Wind chill values over the weekend into early next week will be even colder.

A sampling.

Saturday morning wind chill values.

Sunday morning wind chill values (church goers)

Monday wind chill values. Bitterly cold.

Precipitation Chances

There may be some patchy freezing drizzle this morning in the region (Friday). Use care.

Model guidance shows a southern system clipping our region Friday night into Saturday.

There is a dry layer aloft that should prevent widespread precipitation from occurring.

With that said, our far southeast counties may have a little freezing drizzle or snow flurries. That would include the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. East of the Land Between the Lakes in western Kentucky.

There is some disagreement in the guidance about Sunday’s weather.

The NAM model keeps showing snow showers developing during the day with a dusting to a couple of inches.

For now, this model is the outlier. So, we will dismiss it and keep an eye on trends.

Clouds will thicken Sunday afternoon and evening as our next weather maker approaches from the southwest.

This system will spread snow back into the area. Several inches of snow will be possible. The snow may mix with sleet, at times.

The end result will be icy road conditions.

The snow will end Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

Depending on the exact track of the upper level support, there could be heavy snow with this event.

I am anticipating winter storm watches being issued for the entire area or winter weather advisories.

Either way, icy roads are going to continue to be an issue for our region into most of next week.

The snow may help temperatures drop below zero next week, as well. This will need to be watched.

Typically, a heavy snow layer does help support bitterly cold in our region.

Winds with the system will gust above 20 mph. There could be some blowing and drifting snow, as well.

The snow will taper by Tuesday and that will leave Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon dry.

Wednesday into Friday.

The late week winter storm, that many are talking about on social media, is muddled, at best.

The EC model shows less snow. Some of its ensemble members even keep our region dry.

The GFS is the most bullish with that system. It shows several days of on and off heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Even rain over Tennesssee.

Needless to say, the details on the later-week system are going to have to be monitored and worked out.

If you have travel plans, then you may need to adjust them.

One thing about the next seven days is that a large portion of the United States is going to have to deal with precipitation. Some of it in the form of snow and ice.

This may cause significant travel headaches at airports and with the road system.

Plan accordingly and monitor updated forecast.

Let me show you some future-cast radars.

Keep in mind, these are subject to significant adjustments as new data becomes available.

To make a forecast we use a blend of models and not just one.

Future-cast radars

.This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM 3K American Model.