February 11th through February 16th, 2021. Winter Storm Updates.

A new winter storm blog post has been made for today through Thursday.

Here is that link

https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-16th-through-february-18th-2021-winter-storm-updates/

What you need to know.

Come on over to Facebook

LINK to the Facebook thread. I will be there throughout the event!
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

Key Points

A new winter storm blog post has been made for today through Thursday.

Here is that link

https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-16th-through-february-18th-2021-winter-storm-updates/

1: Icy road conditions into the weekend. Hazardous driving conditions redevelop Sunday into much of the new week.

2. Focus on impacts and not snow totals. The end result, no matter how much snow falls, will be hazardous travel conditions. Blowing and drifting snow will make conditions worse.

Sleet may mix in across portions of western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Mainly east of LBL. That would cut down on snow totals. Keep that in mind.

The system today into Monday evening will arrive in two waves. Mainly tonight into early Monday morning and then late morning into Monday evening. There may be lulls in-between snow bands. Keep that in mind. If you wake up tomorrow to one inch of snow, that is not all of the snow that is going to fall.

3: Plan on bitterly cold air over the coming week. Frostbite, busted pipes, problems for outdoor pets, and increased number of house fires are all a concern.

4: Another winter storm possible Tuesday night into Thursday night. Multiple waves of precipitation. Mostly snow and sleet. We will need to monitor the warm air aloft in case freezing rain develops.

5. I will have Facebook Q&A Threads throughout the weekend and into next week.
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

Certainties:

Cold air will be with us today through most of next week.

Widespread snow today into this evening. Ending late this afternoon and evening from southwest to northeast.

Typically, one inch of liquid equals ten inches of snow. The snow ratios with this system may be greater than 15:1. That will help enhance snow totals. If you want to learn more about snow ratios then I found this website.

Winter storm warning for the entire region.

Uncertainties:

None.

Call to action:

A new winter storm blog post has been made for today through Thursday.

Here is that link

https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-16th-through-february-18th-2021-winter-storm-updates/

Plan on not travelling tonight into Tuesday. Extremely hazardous road conditions will develop in some areas. Blowing and drifting snow will make it worse.

Take precautions against the bitterly cold air. Frostbite is likely with this type of weather. Outdoor animals will suffer, as well.

Historically, prolonged cold spells can cause expensive damage in our region.

Google how to keep your water pipes from freezing.

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app. Download it from the app store. It is under Weather Talk.

TURN ON YOUR BEAU DODSON WEATHER TALK APP. Make sure it is on. Make sure you have not accidentally logged out of the app.

For downloads: Apple users click here. Android users click here

Winter Weather Radars.

The local-city-view radars have a winterize button. Click it (once you are on the radar page).

Interactive city-view radars
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

A third backup radar
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Clickable watches and warnings can be viewed on the local city-view interactive radars (link above). Be sure and turn on the warnings above the local radars.

A new regional radar we offer. This also shows you precipitation type.
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Lightning data
https://wtalk.co/7QT7WHKU

February 15, 2021

A new winter storm blog post has been made for today through Thursday.

Here is that link

https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-16th-through-february-18th-2021-winter-storm-updates/

President’s Day Snowstorm

Update

3 PM

Heavy snow in bands across the area. Low visibility in the heavier bursts of snow.

2 PM

Focus on impact and not totals. Icy road conditions. Bitterly cold air. Wind chill values below zero. Blowing snow.

A WIDE range of snow totals across the region. So far, this is what has been reported. Widespread 3 to 4″ in NW TN. 1.5 to 6″ in western KY. Widespread 3 to 6″+ in SE MO. Widespread 3″ to 6″+ in southern IL.

Blizzard conditions have been reported in the heaviest snow bands with near impossible travel in some rural areas.

Sleet has cut snow totals in some counties.

There has also been lighter totals of portions of western KY. Some areas may end up with final totals of 1.5″ to 4″. Other portions of the region, where banding is occurring, will end up with 6 to 10″ of snow.

Nature of the beast with these winter storms. Snow is never uniform. Always a range. This is why we say to focus on impacts vs totals.

Snow will continue into this afternoon but slowly end from SW to NE.

It will be bitterly cold tonight with single digit lows (below zero in some counties). Wind chill temperatures tonight of -15 to 0. Perhaps colder in spots.

I continue to monitor the chance of additional snow TUE night into THU. Monitor updates.

Interactive-city-view radars. Winter weather radar. Click winterize to see precipitation type.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar

1 PM

Snow continues across the area. See radars.

Thanks for all the photos being sent in. I have posted many on Twitter.

Heavy snow bands currently over SE MO and south IL. This is where 1″ per hour rates are occurring.

Still some sleet over our eastern counties.

Snow totals will be less where sleet lingers.

Overall, the forecast is on track.

This was my final forecast issued Sunday.

Let’s see how it goes. Probably on the lighter in for some.

I continue to watch light snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Then, another system Wednesday PM into Thursday.

Model guidance favors a southern track, but it is still early.

Let me show you some ensemble maps.

The EC model guidance. Wednesday into Thursday.

What are the chances of three or more inches of snow with the Wednesday into Thursday system?

Here is the GFS model’s idea.

Again, these are just models. Meteorologists have to make forecasts based on many models and guidance. Not just one.

I do note, most ensembles favor a southern track. But, confidence remains low.

12 PM update

Hrrr future-cast radar shows you the end of the system. Time-stamp upper left.

11 AM

February 15, 2021
11:15 AM Update

Widespread moderate to heavy snow and sleet now blankets the region.

The sleet will cut down snow totals. Keep that in mind. We will have to see how fast the sleet changes to snow.

The sleet is not going to help driving conditions. Sleet with snow on top.

There have been numerous reports of sleet across NW TN, western KY, and extreme southern IL. Mostly snow elsewhere.

The snowflakes, in some areas, have been very fine. Small grainy flakes. This could cut down on snow totals. We will have to see how it goes.

Larger flakes were reported over parts of southeast MO and southern IL.

Wind chill values across the region are 5 above to 15 below. Bitterly cold air.

Snow will continue into the afternoon and end southwest to northeast as we move into the late afternoon and evening hours.

My forecast was for a widespread 5 to 10 inches. Sleet will cut down totals. We will have to watch the grainy snow. That could hurt snow totals, as well.

Blowing snow is being reported in many areas. Blowing and drifting will be an issue into tonight.

Over the past hour, I have received reports of near zero visibility across parts of southern Illinois. This is making for difficult driving conditions.

I continue to watch Tuesday night for light snow. Another system possible Wednesday and Thursday. The track of that system will need to be monitored. Some models take it further south vs north. Stay tuned on that one.

Today’s social media links

Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather/posts/4242947232401419

Winter Storm Blog
https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-11th-through-february-16th-2021-winter-storm-updates/

Interactive-city-view radars. Winter weather radar. Click winterize to see precipitation type.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

9 AM update. Storm Prediction Center.

8:00 AM

Memphis, Tennessee, NWS forecast snow totals.

Paducah, Kentucky, NWS forecast snow totals forecast.

8 AM radar.

Snow is rapidly pushing into the area from the south. This will cause near blizzard conditions later today.

Road closures are possible at the peak of the storm.

8:00 AM

Future-cast snow totals. Watch the snow depth over the course of the day.

Models show banding possible. Banding is where you have heavier snow within the main snow area.

Banding can enhance snow totals.

Widespread snow will overspread the region today. The storm is on-track.

Overnight snow totals were spot on. A dusting to a couple of inches.

Heavier snow arrives today with the main winter storm.

Near blizzard conditions are possible during the peak of the storm with one inch or greater snow rates. Blowing and drifting snow, as well.

Wind will be in the 10 to 25 mph range with gusts above 25 mph.

Bitterly cold air today will produce wind chill values below zero.

Children will want to play in the snow. The bitterly cold air could cause frostbite. Make sure they are protected with gloves and other. It is rare to have this much snow with temperatures this cold.

A widespread 5 to 10 inches of snow is likely across the region. That is a RANGE. Some may end up with 5 and some with 10 inches. Don’t focus on the numbers. Focus on the impacts.

Another snow event is possible Tuesday night into Thursday night. Heavy snow is again possible. It is still early for details on that event.

Future-cast radar from the Hrrr model guidance.

Wind gust forecast for today.

Winter storm warnings blanket a huge chunk of the county.

Illinois video from the Bam Wx Video team. They help me with videos.

February 14, 2021

Valentine’s Day Snowstorm

Scroll down for future-cast radars and previous updates.

Click images and animations to enlarge them.

8 PM

Snow is overspreading the area. Some sleet mixed in.

There may not be much of a lull tomorrow morning before the next round arrives. That has been in a change in the guidance.

Bitterly cold temperatures. 8 PM temps are cold!

Radar shows the system is coming together. Everything is on track for widespread cold.

Let me show you the latest NAM model. Future-cast radar. What radar should look like.

Notice how fast the snow overspreads the region tonight and tomorrow.

Thunderstorm can’t be ruled out Monday. It is possible.

A widespread 5 to 10 inches of snow will be the end result. Could someone see higher totals? It is possible, yes.

Heavy snow can cause road closures. Avoid travel tomorrow during the peak of this system.

7 PM

Hrrr evening model. Future-cast radar.

#tristatewx #winterstorm #snow #WxTwitter #TwitterWx #ohiovalley 2/14/21 Evening Hrrr model guidance. Future-cast radar. What radar might look like tonight/tomorrow. Time-stamp upper left. pic.twitter.com/v5X33vfN8U

— Beau Dodson (@BeauDodson) February 15, 2021

6 PM NWS Video Conference

4 PM

NWS Memphis, Tennessee, video update

2 PM

NAM future-cast radar

#tristatewx #winterstorm #snow #WxTwitter #TwitterWx #ohiovalley 2/14/21 Afternoon NAM model guidance. Future-cast radar. What radar might look like tonight/tomorrow. Time-stamp upper left. pic.twitter.com/kycPMApkcf

— Beau Dodson (@BeauDodson) February 14, 2021

Afternoon update. I raised totals.

The NWS has raised their snow totals forecast.

I raised my numbers.

This is for the Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.

I raised my numbers.

This is for the rest of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Morning update 10:15 AM.

Future-cast radar shows another system Tuesday night into Thursday.

Here is the GFS model Thursday at 12 AM. Widespread snow and ice in our region.

We need to watch this one, as well. Still early for snow forecasts.

GFS future-cast radar for the mid-week system. Blue is snow. Pink and red represents ice. Purple would be sleet. Green is rain.

10 AM radar shows the snow forming to our west and southwest.

Morning update 10 AM.

Frost quakes are being reported in the area. This can cause shaking.

#quake #frostquake #weather #Tristatewx #Wxtwitter #TwitterWx 2/14/21 Frost quakes have been reported in the region. Similar to an earthquake, frost quakes create loud bangs that sound like an explosion or gunfire. pic.twitter.com/4KrIQX2mWy

— Beau Dodson (@BeauDodson) February 14, 2021

I have never witnessed three winter storms back to back. If this happens then it is a rare event.

The late 1970’s were drawn out over a period of weeks. Not days.

We are witnessing history.

Those storms were also not as far south as the current series of events.

These maps show Illinois snowfall totals in the 1978 storms. Notice the dates.

There were some serious winter storms. They were drawn out over time.

Murray, KY. This morning. Roads are slick from ongoing light snow.

#tristatewx #kywx #ice #snow #NWSPaducah Time Watkins Sr. took this photograph. 9 AM Murray, KY. A fresh blanket of snow on area roads. Icy. Use care, as always. pic.twitter.com/eUakbdAfdX

— Beau Dodson (@BeauDodson) February 14, 2021

Murray, KY. Light snow this morning has caused the roads to become slick and hazardous.

#tristatewx #kywx #murray #NWSPaducah 2/14/21 Light snow has already begun across portions of the area. Some areas are reporting more than 0.25". Fresh blanket on roads. Use care.
Gregory Hayden-Vuichard took this photo from Murray, KY. pic.twitter.com/B5Hx8QVjsQ

— Beau Dodson (@BeauDodson) February 14, 2021

Morning Update

The BAMwx Weather Video Team has updated the Ohio Valley video and the Missouri Valley video

Ohio Valley video

Missouri Valley Video
.

The Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Excluding the Bootheel.

A LARGE area of the nation is under winter weather warnings. I have never seen a map like this.

Large winter storms.

Our region is under a winter storm warning. A couple of counties are under a winter weather advisory.

.Here is the latest NAM model future-cast radar.

You can see the two waves of snow. Read more about that in the previous update below.

This system will come in two waves.

The NAM model shows what it believes will happen as far as accumulation.

The higher totals are highly dependent on the second wave of snow. That arrives late Monday morning into Monday night.

By 9 AM you can see snow totals per the NAM model.

The lower area to our southeast is because of sleet. If there is no sleet then snow totals there will equal what is seen on this map, as well.

Sleet per the NAM model. Again, by 9 AM Monday.

Then wave two hits. These are the final NAM model snow totals. This is not a forecast. I am just showing you what this particular model is showing.

Models show higher totals because they believe the snow will be even fluffier than our going forecast. Keep that in mind.

Let’s look at the Hrrr future-cast radar Another high-resolution model.

Hrrr model snow totals. This is not a forecast. I am just showing you what this particular model is showing.

Here is the latest Paducah, Kentucky, NWS graphic.

The end result of this will be hazardous driving conditions Sunday night into Tuesday.

Blowing and drifting snow will be possible, as well.

Plan accordingly.

The Memphis, Tennessee, NWS snowfall forecast

St Louis, Missouri, NWS snow totals.

Another winter storm may impact the region Tuesday night into Thursday night.

All types of frozen precipitation will be possible. The type of precipitation will depend on the eventual storm track.

WPC is already putting out maps concerning that event.

This shows you where their confidence in winter precipitation is high.

February 13, 2021

I deleted some of the old information in order to free up space on the page.

Could the second wave miss portions of the region? Yes.

If that happens, then you snow event will be over after the first wave.

The area of concern, for this happening, would be the northern half of southeast Missouri and the northern half of southern Illinois.

IF it trends even further southeast then snow totals will be lowered elsewhere, as well. Let’s keep an eye on it.

I am monitoring this portion of the forecast.

Check this out.

The NAM models miss portions of the region with the second wave.

This is HIGHLY dependent on the track of the upper-level system.

This definitely raises forecast questions on snow totals.

NAM 3K model

NAM model.

The GFS misses portions of the region, as well.

If it keeps trending southeast then a large portion of the region would miss the second round of snow.

12 PM Monday

3 PM Monday

Highest totals should be from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.

Still time for adjustments. This is my second call for snow totals. It is not the final call.

I deleted some of the old information to free up room on the page.

What determines precipitation type? Temperatures aloft!

A winter storm watch has been issued for Sunday night into Monday night.

A winter storm watch covers the entire area for Sunday night into Monday night.

Significant accumulation of snow and sleet are possible.

Morning model data shows quite a bit of snow for our region Sunday night into Monday night. Ending late Monday night.

Bitterly cold air, as well.

Blowing and drifting snow.

Monday 6 PM temperatures. Bitterly cold. Gusty wind.

Tuesday 9 AM temperatures

Highs Saturday

Lows Saturday night

Highs Sunday

Lows Sunday night

Wind chill values over the weekend into early next week will be even colder.

A sampling.

Saturday morning wind chill values.

Sunday morning wind chill values (church goers)

Monday wind chill values. Bitterly cold.

Precipitation Chances

Patchy freezing drizzle or snow showers will be possible into Sunday. Little or no accumulation. Keep in mind, it does not take much freezing drizzle for icy road conditions to develop.

There is some disagreement in the guidance about Sunday’s weather.

The NAM model keeps showing snow showers developing during the day with a dusting.

Clouds will thicken Sunday afternoon and evening as our next winter storm approaches from the southwest.

Snow will begin over southeast Missouri Sunday evening and then spread northeast into the rest of the region.

Several inches of snow will be possible. There may be some sleet mixing in, at times, over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. The predominant precipitation type should be snow.

The end result will be snow covered roadways. Blowing snow will make conditions worse.

There should be a lull on Monday morning with a second wave of snow quickly moving in Monday afternoon.

That wave may miss portions of my forecast area. It is looking like that is more likely to happen.

The snow will end late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

Snow ratios will be high with this event. I am forecasting at least 14:1 to 18:1.

Snow ratios are the amount of liquid moisture in the snow.

My BUFKIT took shows up to 20:1 snow ratios possible. That is double our normal snow ratios. Snow ratios determine how much snow will fall. A fluffy snow has a higher snow ratio. A 10:1 ratio might produce 2 to 4 inches but a 20:1 would double that.

The higher the snow ratio, the fluffier the snow. Dry snow, in other words.

Pockets of heavy snow are likely with this event. We may see snow rates exceed an inch of snow per hour, at times. This will cause low visibility.

The snow may help temperatures drop below zero next week, as well. This will need to be watched.

Typically, a heavy snow layer does help support bitterly cold in our region.

The snow will taper by Tuesday and that will leave Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon dry.

Let me show you some ensemble data.

Ensembles are when one model is run multiple times with small adjustments at the beginning. The theory is that the more ensembles that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast.

This is NOT the final snowfall forecast. I am just showing you the model guidance.

EC ensemble data for snow totals Sunday into Tuesday

The GFS ensemble data for snow totals Sunday into Tuesday

What is the probability of three or more inches of snow Sunday into Tuesday?

The GFS ensembles chance of six or more inches of snow

The NWS blend of models is showing this.

Missouri view.

The National Weather Service posted these graphics.

Their snow totals forecast. They expect higher totals over Kentucky and Tennessee. This is still a low confidence snow totals forecast.

Wednesday into Friday.

The late week winter storm, that many are talking about on social media, is muddled, at best.

The EC model shows less snow. Some of its ensemble members even keep our region dry.

The GFS is the most bullish with that system. It shows several days of on and off heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Even rain over Tennessee.

Needless to say, the details on the later-week system are going to have to be monitored and worked out.

If you have travel plans, then you may need to adjust them.

One thing about the next seven days is that a large portion of the United States is going to have to deal with precipitation. Some of it in the form of snow and ice.

This may cause significant travel headaches at airports and with the road system.

Plan accordingly and monitor updated forecast.

Let me show you some future-cast radars.

Keep in mind, these are subject to significant adjustments as new data becomes available.

To make a forecast we use a blend of models and not just one.

Future-cast radars

This next animation is the lower-resolution Hrrr American Model.