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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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I am looking for donations and sponsorships.
You can buy a table at this link and/or donate (you don’t need to buy a table to donate).
More information at this link. CLICK HERE
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
February 10th through February 16th
Current risk: No concerns.
Current confidence level: High confidence.
Comments: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? ISOLATED. There is a small chance of lightning today along the cold front. I will monitor Saturday.
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? NO.
6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? NO.
7. Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- Mild today. Falling temperatures late today over our northern counties.
- Scattered showers late today and tonight. Isolated chances on Wednesday morning (far south southeast counties). Mostly light totals. If a thunderstorm forms, then higher totals in those areas.
- I am watching additional rain chances late this week into the weekend.
- Peak rain chances will be on Saturday and Sunday.
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What is the primary weather concern?
We have patchy dense fog in the region this morning. Use care in those areas.
No significant weather concerns through Friday.
Light rain is likely late this afternoon and tonight. Mainly across the southern half of the region (see maps below).
A few thunderstorms are possible, as well. We are not anticipating severe weather. If a few storms form, then that would enhance rain totals in those areas.
I am watching another system this weekend. Additional rain chances will accompany it.
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This morning and today
A rather odd morning temperature map.
Check out Paducah to Murray and Mt. Vernon to Evansville.
These are the 5 am temperatures.
There is a warm front draped across the region. Some areas have fog and clouds. There is also a temperature inversion.
All of this is causing significant temperature swings.
Some areas have experienced a ten-degree temperature swing within an hour.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
Rain chances today over our northern counties will be less than 20%. Rain chances across our southern counties will be higher.
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A mild day ahead of us. Today will be the warmest day of the week.
The temperature map varies, and a cold front will push across the region later today. This will bring falling temperatures to our northern counties this afternoon.
You can see that on this temperature animation map.
Double-click on the animation to enlarge it.
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Today will be mild.
Tuesday’s high temperatures. Keep in mind, temperatures will fall later this afternoon from north to south.
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Wednesday will deliver above-average temperatures, but a bit cooler behind the cold front.
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Light rain is likely across portions of the region late this afternoon and especially tonight.
Northern counties may receive little or no rainfall. Keep that in mind.
There is a small chance of lightning this afternoon and evening across the Missouri Bootheel and along the KY/TN border southward.
Here is the future-cast radar from the Hrrr model. What radar might look like later today and tonight.
The time-stamp is on the upper left and is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am.
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Here are the projected rainfall totals through early Wednesday morning. A small chance of a lingering shower tomorrow morning (early).
Rain totals today through Wednesday morning will be light. Ranging from none far north to perhaps as much as 0.15″ far south.
A few thunderstorms are possible, as well. We are not anticipating severe weather. If a few storms form, it would increase rainfall totals in those areas.
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The bulk of Wednesday and Wednesday night will be dry.
Let me show you the rainfall probabilities for today, tonight, and tomorrow.
Notice the sharp difference from north to south.
This is for this afternoon.
Double-click on the two graphics to enlarge them.
This is for tonight. Notice the sharp cut-off across our northern counties.
.Another system will approach the region later this week.
Peak chances will be Friday night into Sunday. Lower rain probabilities before that time.
This will be a rain event. It is just a matter of how much rain.
If the storm tracks too far south, then rain totals will be lower. This will need to be monitored. The system is still out over the Pacific Ocean.
The models show varying intensities for the system.
Although the primary models differ, I can see the ensembles are converging on a storm track to our south.
That means the primary area of low pressure will track south of us.
That keeps us on the cool wet side of the system. Typically, in the winter months, this would be a snow track for our region.
We just don’t have enough cold air for a snow event.
Here are the GEFS model ensembles. The L’s are the area of low pressure.
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Here are the EC ensembles. A different model. Note that the L’s are clustered to our south.
Typically, in February, this would be a heavy snow event for our region. We just don’t have the cold air for that.
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There are sharp differences in rainfall totals.
Let me show you the GEFS and EC ensembles.
What is the probability of one inch or more of rain?
GEFS
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What about the EC ensembles?
The EC guidance is a tad farther south than the GEFS.
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That storm track would likely keep thunder out of our forecast this weekend.
If the track were to our north, then storms would be possible. We are not expecting severe weather. The only concern would be lightning and thunder with a more northerly storm track.
Bottom line: rain chances will increase later this week and into the weekend. Rain totals will need to be monitored. Adjustments are likely as confidence in the eventual storm track increases.
Rainfall for both the Tuesday PM event and the weekend event. This has been shifting southward and may continue to shift southward depending on the storm’s eventual track.
Confidence in these current rainfall projections remains low. I will know more tomorrow and Thursday.
Double-click the graphic to enlarge it.
The WPC is starting out fairly high with these numbers.
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Data shows a couple more systems to monitor next week and the week after.
Perhaps we can pick up some much-needed rainfall.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow.
GFS Model
Long range
This is the Tuesday PM system
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is locally heavy rain. Blue is snow.
EC model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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