Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Good morning, everyone.

Welcome to Sunday!  I hope you had a nice Saturday!

I am experimenting with simplifying the daily blog.  Send me comments at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Bottom Line Up Front.

1.  Mostly dry today.  Increasing clouds.  Chilly temperatures.  A slight chance of late afternoon showers over southeast Missouri.
2.  Rain (south) and snow (north) tonight ending tomorrow west to east.  It is possible that our far northern counties receive very little precipitation with this first event.
3.  Rain likely Wednesday/Wednesday night.  It may begin as freezing rain over portions of SE MO/south IL.
4.  Rain likely Friday night into Saturday night.  For now, this looks to be mostly a rain event.

Here are the expected snowfall totals.  Most of this would fall tonight into Tuesday morning/afternoon.

An active weather pattern today into the weekend.  Multiple rounds of precipitation.

Two precipitation events between Monday and Thursday.  A third arrives Friday night into Saturday.

Watches and warnings

The National Weather Service held off on issuing a winter weather advisory and instead went with a special weather statement for tonight and tomorrow for portions of the region.  If confidence increases that slightly higher snow totals may materialize, then they can always upgrade it to a winter weather advisory.

Temperatures

Again, temperatures are going to be marginal for snow and sleet tonight into Tuesday.

With that said, it will be cold enough for some accumulation across  portions of the region.  Treated roadways should be okay.  Untreated roadways could be slick. Monday night into Tuesday.  As always, use care.
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If temperatures were slightly colder, this would be a bigger event.  Marginal temperatures will cut down on snow totals.

The Wednesday system appears warmer.  It could still begin as freezing rain and sleet across portions of the region.  It would then change to rain.

If you have travel plans in the region (or northward) then monitor updates over the coming days.  Some wintry precipitation is likely to develop.

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System one (Monday/Tuesday)

We have increasing chances of precipitation area-wide this evening  into Tuesday. Ending over western Kentucky Tuesday afternoon.  See the future-cast radars below.

It appears the battle-zone between snow and rain will be draped across southeast Missouri eastward along/near the Ohio River in southern Illinois/west Kentucky and then eastward from there.

Not much has changed over the last 48 hours.  My initial forecast holds.

Southern counties should be mostly rain with no travel impacts (wet roadways).

Bottom line on the Monday/Tuesday system
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Here is where I drew the rain vs snow line.  The battle-ground zone in the middle could go back and forth.   It would be a wet slushy snow.

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Bottom line on the Wednesday/Thursday system

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The Wednesday and Wednesday night system

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Here is the probability of 0.10″ of freezing rain with the Wednesday system.

I will monitor southeast Missouri and portions of southern Illinois.  With time, it would change to rain.

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Here is the probability of 0.01″ trace amounts of freezing rain.  Don’t focus on the lower probabilities.  The main concern would be across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The blue colors are the primary concern.  Perhaps the dark green zone, as well.

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Future-cast Radars.  What radar might look like with these events.

Here is the NAM model future-cast radar for the Monday and Tuesday event.  The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.

Blue is snow.  Pink is ice.  Green and yellow represent plain old rain.

As you can see the region is split in half.  The NAM is slightly warmer and has the rain/snow line about one county north of other data.

Double click on animations to enlarge them.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

As mentioned above, another system is likely to bring rain to the region Friday night into Saturday.  That system looks warm with showers and perhaps even some rumbles of thunder.

I will closely monitor temperatures at the beginning and end.  I can’t rule out a brief wintry mix.

Here is what that looks like on the GFS model.  The time-stamp is located in the upper left.

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Here are two videos.

Here is my seven day video update

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The St Louis, MO NWS posted this one (this covers my far northwest counties).  They don’t really cover the rest of my forecast area.

This covers my northwest counties.

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The latest eight to fourteen day temperature outlook looks chilly.  Blue represents below average temperatures.

We will just have to see if precipitation accompanies these colder temperatures.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.