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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.
No graphic today because each area has a variety of forecast details. Scroll down to the written forecast.
All of Beau’s Facebook Q&A Thread
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather
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Wednesday to Wednesday
I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. See the winter storm blog. Another snowstorm possible early next week.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? N0.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Yes. Intervals of cold this weekend into the weekend. Monitor the wind chill value forecast.
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I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.
All of Beau’s Facebook Q&A Thread
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather
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February 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Most of the region will be at or below freezing. That means mostly freezing rain and sleet. Areas near LBL eastward might be above freezing the first part of the day. Watch northwest Tennessee temperatures, as well.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 28° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of a wintry mix.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 5:30 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Monitor updates. The precipitation chances will be higher as you travel southward. Keep that in mind.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% north and 90% south IL ~ 30% north and 60% south KY ~ 90% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° SE MO 18° to 22° South IL 18° to 22° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 25° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads and surfaces. Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 6:24 AM
Moonset: 4:23 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a freezing rain and sleet over the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee. As you travel north the chances of precipitation will be lower. Snow will be possible further north vs south. Light. Primary concern will be the ice zone.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% north and 70% far south IL ~ 30% north and 50% far south KY ~ 70% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 28° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous over the southern half of the region. Widely scattered north.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy surfaces. Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 5:31 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Cold. Snow showers are possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 18° to 22° SE MO 10° to 15° South IL 10° to 15° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 15° West KY 14° to 16° NW TN 18° to 22°
Wind direction and speed: North 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold. Frost b ite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 7:05 AM
Moonset: 5:29 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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February 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of a flurry.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 5:32 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Snow flurries possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 18° SE MO 8° to 12° South IL 10° to 15° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 15° West KY 12° to 16° NW TN 14° to 18°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 5°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be bitterly cold.
Moonrise: 7:40 AM
Moonset: 6:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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February 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 5:33 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cold. Flurries possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 4° to 8° SE MO -2° to 5° South IL -2° to 6° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 4° to 8° West KY 6° to 12° NW TN 8° to 12°
Wind direction and speed: North 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 5°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be bitterly cold.
Moonrise: 8:10 AM
Moonset: 7:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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February 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 15° to 20° SE MO 12° to 15° South IL 12° to 15° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 12° to 15° West KY 12° to 15° NW TN 14° to 18°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 5:35 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 4° to 8° SE MO -2° to 5° South IL -4° to 5° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 3° to 6° West KY 3° to 6° NW TN 4° to 8°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 5°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be bitterly cold. Frostbite.
Moonrise: 8:30 AM
Moonset: 8:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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February 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 18° SE MO 13° to 16° South IL 13° to 16° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 13° to 16° West KY 14° to 18° NW TN 14° to 18°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Monitor snow chances. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 5:36 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy. Snow likely. Some accumulation possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 8° to 12° SE MO 8° to 10° South IL 5° to 10° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 8° to 12° West KY 8° to 12° NW TN 8° to 14°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Snow accumulation. Frostbite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:02 AM
Moonset: 9:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through February 15th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible Monday into Thursday night.
Some accumulation of frozen precipitation is likely to occur. That includes freezing rain. Monitor the Winter Storm Blog that I have posted for this event.
I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.
Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
Key Points
1: Multiple rounds of precipitation into Thursday. Coverage tonight and Thursday will be higher over southern counties vs north.
2. Periods of bitterly cold air.
3. Accumulating freezing rain is the primary concern. Bitterly cold air is the second concern.
4. We need to monitor the potential of enough freezing rain to cause problems.
5. All of Beau’s Facebook Q&A Thread
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather
Winter Weather Radars. The local-city-view radars have a winterize button. Click it (once you are on the radar page).
Interactive city-view radars
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
A third backup radar
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Clickable watches and warnings can be viewed on the local city-view interactive radars (link above). Be sure and turn on the warnings above the local radars.
A new regional radar we offer
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
Lightning data
https://wtalk.co/7QT7WHKU
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Call to action.
Monitor updated weather forecasts.
Make sure you are using the Weather Talk app. Download it from the app store. It is under Weather Talk.
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Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk. Apple users click here. Android users click here
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February 10, 2021
First, some of you have asked. There is another winter storm potential early next week.
Models show all types of precipitation. It is WAY early to know the details on that. We do well within the 24 hour window to put out an accurate winter storm forecast. Let alone days in advance.
I have a Facebook post going. You can ask questions there. You can find those posts here. Click here.
I deleted previous posts to free up space on the page (and so it would load faster for you).
Widespread light freezing rain, freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow fell overnight. A few of our far southern counties remained all rain (mostly east of LBL).
Totals overnight were not great, but they were enough to cause problems.
Untreated roadways and surfaces are ice covered. I have already heard of several people falling on what appeared to be a wet surface. It was ice.
Numerous wrecks have been reported by local officials. A glaze of ice makes travel difficult, at best.
Treated roadways have not be as slick as untreated.
Use care out there.
Waves of precipitation will push across the region today into tonight. It will continue into Thursday for some counties, as well.
Precipitation totals over the northern half of the region will remain light. Light doesn’t matter when it comes to a glaze of ice. Ice is ice. It will be slick. Thus, avoid travel on these ice covered roadways.
Precipitation amounts will vary considerably across the region.
The heaviest precipitation is forecast to fall across the ice storm warning zone.
Perhaps higher from the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee. Totals may be higher along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line.
Models STILL do not agree on the forecast late tonight into tomorrow.
About half the models push the system so far south that most of our precipitation comes to an end. The other half shows widespread frozen precipitation across the ice storm warning southward.
Confidence in the final solution is not all that great. Our best hope is we avoid the large slug of precipitation late tonight and tomorrow. That could cut down on ice totals.
For now, the forecast remains on track with no significant adjustments.
Here are the winter weather advisories and ice storm warnings. Notice that Henry County Tennessee has been upgraded to an ice storm warning, as well.
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Here is the latest precipitation totals forecast. We will see how this goes. Again, there remain questions about late tonight into tomorrow.
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Bitterly cold air arrives over the coming days and will continue into next week.
Here is the GFS model showing low temperatures over the coming days.
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What does freezing rain look like? It looks like this. Sleet would be tiny ice pellets. Freezing rain is rain that freezes upon contact.
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Sleet looks like this. Graupel is an icy snow pellet. Similar to sleet.
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What determines whether we receive rain, freezing rain, sleet, or snow?
The depth of the cold air aloft is what determines that. Click on the images and animations to enlarge them.
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Future-cast radars.
Again, keep in mind that models are not going to handle the cold air all that well. I will need to closely monitor trends.
Small movements of the warm front will mean large forecast adjustments. Everything from rain to freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink is sleet and freezing rain.
This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink is sleet and freezing rain.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink is sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink is sleet and freezing rain.
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.This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink is sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink is sleet and freezing rain.
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WPC ice totals forecast. I like this placement. It matches my thinking of the southward trend we talked about yesterday.
What are the chances of 0.10″ of freezing rain?
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What are the chances of 0.25″ of freezing rain?
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What are the chances of 0.50″ of freezing rain?
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What are the chances of 1.00″ of freezing rain?
What do freezing rain totals look like?
Here are some examples.
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Even a small amount of freezing rain can cause problems.
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Give room
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Weather Discussion
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- A complicated forecast for the week ahead.
- Multiple chances of precipitation.
For the current discussion see the Winter Storm Blog link.
I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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I have a special Winter Storm Blog Post that will be updated throughout the week. Winter Storm Blog. Active Updates. Link.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 10th through February 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers February 19th through February 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers February 23rd through March 8th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperatures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary March outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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Apple users click here
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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