Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Gusty winds and some clouds into Monday
2.  Scattered light rain on Sunday night/Monday morning. Maybe a few lightning strikes.
3.  Large storm system moves into region on Tuesday.  Thunderstorms?
4.  Much colder by Wednesday!  Winter isn’t over.

Well, our mild weekend has continued.  I have not heard anyone complain.  I did have a couple of winter fans ask me if winter was over.  Winter is not over.  Now, whether we pull off a few more snowstorms.  That is the real question.  You have to roll the dice several times to get the cold air to mix with a storm system.  It is always a bit of a gamble.

I would be surprised if we were finished with snow.  The charts do show quite a bit of cold air over the coming weeks.  Let’s keep watching the data.

I was thinking February and March would be winter for our region.  In actuality the middle of January produced quite a bit of cold and snow.

The big story over the coming days will be a large storm system that moved ashore in California today.  This system will move eastward over the next 24-48 hours.

A deep area of low pressure is forecast to move out of Kansas and Oklahoma and track into Missouri and Illinois on Tuesday.  This system will be responsible for a blizzard across parts of Kansas and Nebraska.  Heavy snow in Iowa, as well.  The winter weather will stay to our north.  But, we won’t escape the problems associated with this system.

Warm and moist air will stream northward on Monday night and Tuesday.  Straight out of the Gulf of Mexico.  This will set the stage for some scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as late Monday night.  Thunderstorm activity is forecast to increase on Tuesday as the cold front sweeps eastward into our local area.  Some of the thunderstorms on Tuesday could be on the heavy side.

Strong winds aloft will be of some concern.  Occasionally thunderstorms can tap into those wind fields.  When that occurs the winds can be transported downward to the surface of the Earth.  That is when we end up with damaging winds.

Instability is lacking on Tuesday.  However, knowing the level of instability is usually a question mark until the day of the event.  Limiting factors for instability could be ongoing cloud cover and precipitation.  But, any breaks in the clouds on Tuesday could  spell bad news.  That is when instability builds.  Sunshine is always bad news on a day where severe weather could occur.

Bottom line, let’s continue to monitor the weather forecast for Tuesday.  Some of the storms could be intense.  Severe weather risk is not zero.

I am expecting a line of storms to form along the cold front.   Some of the data suggest our western counties in southeast Missouri would have less of a concern than say southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  Western areas of southeast Missouri would include the Poplar Bluff, MO area northeast towards Farmington,  Missouri.

Either way, monitor updates as we move forward.

Cold air returns on Wednesday into next weekend.  Some guidance packages are showing some light snow flurries or snow showers Saturday night or Sunday.  But, that is in the long range and confidence is low.  I will dig a bit deeper into that subject once we get past our Tuesday event.

Let’s look at a couple of maps.

One element of this incoming storm system will be winds.  Gusty gusty winds on Tuesday.  I expect some gusts above 40 mph.  That would just be gradient winds.  Gradient winds are just your normal winds you have throughout the day.  They will be gusty because of the tight isobars associated with the area of low pressure moving to our north.

Here is the storm system for Tuesday.  Check out the snow on the north side.  Showers and storms for us.  No snow.

850 mb winds.  Winds at 5000 feet will be zipping along Tuesday morning and afternoon.  850 mb winds of 50-70 knots will be possible.  That is sufficient wind speeds to cause some concern for severe weather.  Again, if CAPE is available.

Very strong winds at the 500 mb level.  Strong jet stream.  500 mb is 18,000′ aloft.  This is one thing meteorologists look for when considering severe weather parameters.  The winds aloft.

This first image from wright-weather.com is Monday morning.  Watch the jet stream diving down over the southwest United States. That jet will be moving into our region on Tuesday.

This next image is for Tuesday evening.

Let’s look at CAPE.  These two images, from weatherbell.com, are from the GFS and NAM guidance models.  They both do show CAPE in our region.  This needs to be monitored.

This first image is the GFS.  The GFS has been going back and forth.  Some runs showing no CAPE.  Some runs showing more CAPE.

This would be enough CAPE to cause problems.  Again, CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms.

Here is the NAM.  The NAM shows quite a bit of CAPE.

NAM shows more CAPE than the GFS.  Something to monitor over the next 24-36 hours.

No winter weather anticipated.

No major adjustments in this forecast package update.

My main concern will be gusty winds on Tuesday and some thunderstorms along a strong cold front that will push into our region during the late morning and afternoon hours.  Some of the storms could be on the heavy side.

Yes, monitor updated forecasts for Tuesday.  Some heavy weather can’t be ruled out.

The wild card for this forecast will be the risk of severe weather on Tuesday.  Might a few of the storms produce damaging winds?  It is possible.  Let’s monitor updates.

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Some light rain is possible Sunday night and Monday.  Rainfall totals will be less than 0.20″.  Some areas may only pick up a trace or so.
A heavier rain event is possible on Monday night (late) and especially Tuesday.  Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in response to an area of low pressure moving out of Kansas and Oklahoma.  Some of the storms could be on the heavy side.

Here is a broad-brushed rainfall total map from NOAA.  Image is from weatherbell.com

This gives you a general idea of what rainfall totals might look.

Won’t be exact.  But, an idea.

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.