.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

If a link is broken then please let me know. Beaudodson@usawx.com

1. 1. Go to storm tracking tools. Radars, lightning, & satellite
   2. Go to today’s forecast
   3. Go to the city-view graphic-casts
   4. Go to the severe weather outlook
   5. Go to the weather forecast discussion
   6. Go to the model future-cast radars
   7. Go to videos
   8. Go to weeks one, two, three, and four temperature & precipitation graphics
   9. Go to the winter outlook,
   10. Go to Weatherbrains
   11. View our community charity work. Your subscription dollars help support these causes.
   12. County maps. I made a page with county maps. Some of you requested this.

Do you have questions or suggestions? If so, please email me. Beaudodson@usawx.com

.

Quick Glance

.

.

Your seven-day outlook.

.

Not receiving app/text messages?

USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are slowing or stopping the text messages.

Make sure you have the correct app/text options turned on. Find those under the personal notification settings tab at www.weathertalk.com. Red is off. Green is on.

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Click here

.
County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any significant changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No

.

What changes might occur in the forecast?

I am monitoring light rain changing to flurries or light snow showers on Monday night and Tuesday.  For now, accumulation appears unlikely.  If there were to be accumulation it would be light.  The highest chance would be along the KY/TN border and then southward.  Monitor updates.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

** The new app is finished. Make sure you have the new one. If not, go to WeatherTalk in the app store. Download the new app. Notice the icon is no longer orange. It is a grey/dark color **

.

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

.

December 9, 2019
Monday’s Forecast:  Cloudy.  Mild.  Windy.  Scattered showers.  
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%   IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 60%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62°   SE MO 55° to 60°   South IL 55° to 60°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58°   West KY 56° to 60°   NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Strong and gusty winds.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1 Low
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
.
Monday night Forecast:  Colder.  Windy.  Scattered rain showers becoming mixed with snow flurries or a snow shower.  Little or no accumulation.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 60%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36°    SE MO 26° to 32°    South IL 28° to 34°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34°    West KY 30° to 34°    NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 3:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:10 AM

.

December 10, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Intervals of clouds.  Windy.  Colder.   Snow flurries or snow showers are possible over our far southern counties.  The greatest chance of snow showers will be along the MO/AR and KY/TN border and then southward.  In and near those areas.  It is possible (if not likely) that most of the snow remains south of my forecast area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 40%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Boothee 36° to 40°    SE MO 34° to 36°    South IL 34° to 36°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38°    West KY 36° to 38°    NW TN 36° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 15 to 25 mph before 2 PM.  North wind 10 to 20 mph after 2 PM.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.  Ending north to south.  Most of the precipitation will be over across the vast majority of the region before 11 am.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Watch AM bridges.  Temperatures will be near freezing.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
.
Tuesday night Forecast:  Clearing.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 24°    SE MO 22° to 24°    South IL 22° to 24°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 24°    West KY 23° to 26°    NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 3:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 5:12 AM

.

December 11, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny.   Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°    SE MO 42° to 46°    South IL 40° to 45°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44°    West KY 42° to 44°    NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind less than 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
.
Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26°    SE MO 23° to 26°    South IL 23° to 26°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26°    West KY 23° to 26°    NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 24°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 4:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Full
Moonset: 6:15 AM

.

December 12, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°    SE MO 44° to 48°    South IL 43° to 46°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46°    West KY 44° to 46°    NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
.
Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 20%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36°    SE MO 30° to 34°    South IL 30° to 34°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34°    West KY 30° to 34°    NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 5:16 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:18 AM

.

December 13, 2019
Friday’s Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°    SE MO 46° to 50°    South IL 45° to 50°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50°    West KY 46° to 50°    NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
.
Friday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of a few showers after 2 am.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~  10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38°    SE MO 33° to 36°    South IL 33° to 36°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36°     West KY 34° to 36°    NW TN 36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roadways.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 6:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 8:19 AM

.

December 14, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast:  Partly cloudy.   A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52°    SE MO 46° to 50°    South IL 46° to 40°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50°    West KY 46° to 50°    NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed:  West at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
.
Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0%     IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify:  Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34°    SE MO 30° to 35°    South IL 30° to 35°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 35°    West KY 30° to 35°    NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  Monitor updates.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 7:13 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:17 AM

.

December 15, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Colder north vs south in the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°     SE MO 42° to 45°    South IL 38° to 44°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46°   West KY 44° to 46°    NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:  Variable wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
.
Sunday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of rain showers.  A slight chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Low (20% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36°    SE MO 30° to 35°    South IL 30° to 35°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 35°    West KY 32° to 34°    NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 8:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:07 AM

.

.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

.

Wind forecast

Click to enlarge

.

School Bus Stop Forecast

.

.

1.  Rain showers on Monday.
2.  Rain may end as flurries or snow showers Monday night/Tuesday.
3.  Colder Monday night into Wednesday night.

Agriculture Forecast
Spray forecast will return next spring.

.

Precipitation Dates.

These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is very low confidence. Do not make plans based on this forecast.

The icon can mean rain or snow.

Click to enlarge these graphics.

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

.

Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

.

Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

.

Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

.

Monday through next Sunday:  No severe thunderstorms.

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

.

Severe Weather Risk Graphic (this is not for regular sub-severe thunderstorms. This graphic is for severe thunderstorms)

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

.

Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
.

.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

.
72-hour precipitation outlook.
.

.

Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

1.   Rain on Monday and Monday night.
2.   Rain may end as snow flurries or a snow shower on Monday night into Tuesday evening (southern counties).
3.   Turning colder Monday night through Thursday.

 

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

.

Weather
.
Advice:

Monitor updated forecasts concerning the rain ending as snow on Monday night into Tuesday.  The greatest chance of this happening would be along the MO/AR and KY/TN border.  Then, southward from there.

.

Weather Forecast Analysis

.

A bit unsettled over the coming 15 to 20 days.  Several chances of clouds and precipitation.  A typical roller-coaster ride in the temperature department.

We had some light rain showers overnight.  Most areas picked up less than 0.10″ of rain.  Nothing extreme or major.

Fairly mild temperatures today with a big drop tonight and tomorrow.  That will occur as a strong cold front sweeps through the region.

This is the temperature anomaly graphic.  How many degrees above or below average will temperatures be over the next couple of days?

Warmer than average today.  We then drop below average behind the cold front.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees

.

This cold front moving through the region will bring an end to the rain showers by tomorrow.

A weak wave tonight will bring some additional light rain showers.  Perhaps even a novelty snow flurry or snow shower.

A southern system will bring snow to Arkansas and Tennessee tomorrow.  This will mostly occur south of my forecast counties.  There could be some snow showers or snow flurries along the MO/AR and KY/TN border tonight and tomorrow.  Again, the bulk will remain south.

This is likely to be a non-accumulating snow event.   If there were to be accumulation it would be a dusting, at best.  Again, near the MO/AR and KY/TN border and then southward.

Dry Tuesday night into Friday.

I am watching two systems from Friday night to Tuesday.  Those systems should bring some rain showers back into the region.  I am going to have to fine-tune the time period with the highest precipitation chances.

The GFS actually brings snow to the region this coming weekend.  The GFS has been a horrible model this year.  For now, I will keep an eye on the system.  I have rain in the forecast.

Here is the GFS

Here is the EC model (EC shows rain)

This is for the Sunday/Monday system.

.

SNOW OUTLOOK:

I am tracking some potential snow systems.  Just a matter of storm track.  Like always.

I have been watching the 23rd through the 26th for about seven weeks now.  I continue to watch that time-frame.

You can see that system on the GFS model.

The GFS has not done well over the past few months.  What it does well is sniff out the potential of systems.

I will continue to monitor the days around Christmas for a precipitation event.

.You

.

.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

.

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″

Yellow and orange are above average. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue is below average. Green to purple is much below average.

This outlook covers December 6th through December 12th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

.

.

.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
.
This outlook covers December 16th through December 22nd

Click on the image to expand it.

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

.

.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.90″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers December 20th through January 2nd

Click on the image to expand it.

.

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.
Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
.

December

Click on the image to expand it.

January

February

March

 

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page..

BAMwx has released its winter forecast. Keep in mind, what you really want to know is not covered in a general winter outlook. What you want to know is how much snow or ice will fall. That is not possible to predict.

The best long-range forecasters can do is to tell you above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

This initial winter outlook indicates odds favor above-normal temperatures when everything is averaged out from November into March. That does not mean we won’t have cold weather. It just means when you average all of those months together we could end up above normal.

They indicate above-normal snowfall, as well.

Winter analogs. BAMwx found years that have a pattern similar to what we are currently experiencing. Those are called analogs. We can compare previous years with the present.

Their analogs indicate colder than normal across portions of the central and northern United States. They indicate above normal temperatures along the West Coast south and east into Texas.

Blue and purple are below normal (bright green, as well). Yellow and orange are above normal.

Winter Temperature Outlook

Winter Precipitation

Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge.

Looking back at last year. None of the models handled last year all that well.

Upper air pattern.

Here is the BAMwx temperature forecast. This covers all of winter. They have us in the above normal temperature zone. Near normal just to our north. For now, they have this marked as a low confidence forecast.

Additional winter forecasts will be posted over the next couple of months. This is the preliminary outlook.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

.

.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

.

.

WeatherBrains Episode 724

.

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the manager of a field station in the Tahoe National Forest in California. Jeffrey Brown, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

• Weather community loses storm chaser Mike Wilhem
• The future of weather radio
• Smart TV/streaming services and severe weather warnings
• National Weather Round-Up
• The Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
• and more!

.

.

Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

.

Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects? Not a subscriber? Becoming one at www.weathertalk.com

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.