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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours.
The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.
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Tuesday night to Tuesday night
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No. At this time, it appears that the chance of accumulating snow is low. Monitor updates.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. A cold front will sweep across the region Friday/Saturday. Lightning is possible.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. At this time, the threat of severe weather appears minimal. I will keep a close eye on Friday/Friday night/Saturday morning. A cold front will move across the region. Some storms will be possible. The richness of low-level moisture is in question. Thus, the threat of severe weather appears low.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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December 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday night Forecast: A few passing clouds. More clouds over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky vs the rest of the area.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Light south southwest wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset: 12:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Patchy AM fog. Mostly sunny. Some mid level clouds possible. Milder.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:58AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 32° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:56 AM
Moonset: 1:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Patchy AM fog. Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Some increase in clouds overnight. Not as cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 40° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:05 AM
Moonset: 1:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Increasing from the west moving east and northeast.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 58° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 64° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly afternoon)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty. Wind becoming west/southwest.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 3:17 AM
Moonset: 2:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 34° West KY 28° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:30 AM
Moonset: 3:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Chilly. A slight chance of flurries or a sprinkle.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of flurries. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:46 AM
Moonset: 3:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:59 AM
Moonset: 4:46 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through December 15th: At this time, severe weather appears unlikely. I will monitor an incoming cold front Friday and Friday night/Saturday morning. I can’t rule out storms. For now, confidence in severe weather occurring is low. Monitor updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated December 8th and 9th
No significant weather concerns through Thursday night.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Weekend cold front.
- Warmer ahead of the front and colder behind it!
No major weather concerns through Thursday night.
We will have more sunshine Wednesday and Thursday and it will be warmer! Highs into the upper 50s to middle 60s. I think we can handle that. It will feel nice with a bit of sunshine.
Clouds were slow to leave on Tuesday. They lingered over our eastern counties a bit more than everywhere else. Although, as you can see from this satellite grab, there were clouds elsewhere, as well.
Tuesday afternoon satellite view.
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So, the good news is that we have quiet weather through Thursday night. Enjoy the nicer temperatures Wednesday into Friday.
A strong cold front will accompany a deepening area of low pressure Friday into Sunday. That will sweep across our region with a band of showers and perhaps even a few thunderstorms.
A few showers may develop as early as Friday morning over southeast Missouri. Chances of precipitation will increase as we move through Friday afternoon and night.
It will be moving west to east/northeast. That means rain will overspread the region ahead of the cold front late Friday into Saturday. Rain will end west to east Saturday afternoon and evening.
Strong and gusty wind will accompany the area of low pressure. A tight pressure gradient will develop. That will mean gusty wind.
The good news is that the threat of severe weather appears low. It may not be zero, but for now it is close to zero. I will continue to monitor.
If we had a bit more moisture/higher dew points then I would be worried about damaging wind and tornadoes.
For now, this looks to be a rain event with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms.
Snow will develop to our north. If you plan on traveling to central and northern Illinois then you will want to monitor road conditions. Especially northern Illinois.
There remains some debate about the exact track of the area of low pressure. If the track is further south then the snow will fall further south.
Either way, snow is not in our forecast. Maybe a flurry or two. Nothing significant.
Models continue to struggle with the Sunday through Tuesday time-frame. Some of the models want to develop a second area of low pressure to our south. That would mean more clouds and perhaps even precipitation.
For now, confidence in that happening is rather low. Models do not agree. I have been keeping an eye on it.
I left a small chance of showers or flurries in the Sunday/Sunday night forecast.
It will turn colder behind the front. That would occur Saturday afternoon into early next week.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precipitation through Thursday night.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
No precipitation through Thursday night.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Canadian Model Guidance
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 9th through December 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 16th through December 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 22th through January 4th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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Apple users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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