December 8, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

Severe Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon/Friday night. Monitor updates via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

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48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Friday, and Friday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Friday and Friday night. Monitor updates.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Friday/Friday night. Heavy rain is likely in some locations. This could cause ponding of water, ditches to flood, creeks to rise. Monitor updates.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

December 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Becoming partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:18 AM
Moonset: 9:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Patchy dense fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Dense fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 11:54 AM
Moonset: 10:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Increasing clouds. Very warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe late in the day. Monitor updates. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time but more likely in the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Patchy fog. Large hail. Damaging wind. Tornadoes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars and updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Large hail. Damaging wind. Tornadoes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 12:23 PM
Moonset: 11:46 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

December 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: A chance of early morning showers. Falling temperatures northwest to southeast as a cold front moves through the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 50° / South IL 46° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° / West KY 46° to 50° / NW TN 46° to 50°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 25° to 30° / NW TN 30° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph. Winds calming overnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:50 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 26° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:15 PM
Moonset: 12:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

This is an average for the region.

Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through December 12th: Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday and Friday night. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Milder today into Friday.
2. A few light showers possible Thursday night.
3. Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up Friday and Friday night. Ending Saturday morning.
4. Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain possible Friday/Friday night.
5. No snow or ice in the current forecast.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

We experienced our first snowfall last night. Portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois received flurries and light snow. There was a light accumulation of snow in some counties. A hint of snow on cars and decks. A few roads and bridges became slick near the I64 corridor.

Here are a couple of photos from Dan Robinson. These were taken in Jefferson County, Illinois.

It will be milder today with highs around 50 degrees. Cool, but not as cold as yesterday.

It will be dry today into Thursday.

A few showers may develop Thursday night. Light rain/drizzle/patchy fog. Don’t expect much in the way of measurable rainfall.

It will be windy Thursday with winds gusting above 25 mph. Highest winds will likely be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Gusty winds will last into Friday/Friday night, as well. Some gusts above 30 mph. Gradient winds because of the deep area of low pressure to our north/northwest.

Thunderstorms winds could be even higher.

Wind gust animation. Time and date at the top of the image. This is Zulu time. 12z = 6 am. 18z= 12 PM and so on.

A strong cold front will barrel into the region Friday and Friday night.

Parameters are coming together for the risk of damaging wind, hail, and even tornadoes. Monitor your Beau Dodson WeatherTalk app.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our area for a level one and two severe weather risk. The levels go up to five. Five being the highest.

You can see the dark green and yellow region. Dark green is level one. Yellow is level two.

There is also a marginal risk of flash flooding Friday/Friday night.

The chance of severe weather is higher during the evening and overnight hours.

A strong low level jet will develop. There will be plenty of warm and moist air streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

You can see the low on this map. The red L is the area of low pressure. Remember, low pressure usually brings rain and storms. Precipitation.

The position of this low is favorable for severe thunderstorms in our area.

You can see those winds here on the 850 mb wind map. Several thousand feet aloft.

Thunderstorms can tap into these winds. The chart shows 50 to 70 knots. Typically, thunderstorms tap into the 850 mb wind field and that could mean surface winds (in the most intense thunderstorms) could top 60 mph. Similar to our last event.

The 500 m b wind map is impressive, as well. See that pink/purple streak that moves across our region? Those are very high winds aloft. This is one ingredient when it comes to forecasting severe thunderstorms.

We are also in the perfect location, with these wind fields, for upward growth of thunderstorms.

Wind shear is one ingredient in severe weather. Wind speed increases with height. We call that speed shear.

You can see the 500 mb map winds are stronger than the graphic above (the 850 mb wind field map).

Let’s look at storm motion. Storms will likely move east/northeast at speeds above 50 mph. That means there won’t be a lot of time to seek shelter if a tornado develops. This is similar to what happened Sunday when some storms were moving faster than 60 mph.

You can see on the animation, from the NAM model, that there is plenty of moisture and lift with this system.

See those bright colors that form over our region? That indicates rapid upward growth of thunderstorms. You can see it begins in southeast Missouri and then quickly becomes a long line of thunderstorms. Some severe.

Click images to enlarge them.

We have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday. Then, widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday night. There is a lot of moisture for this system to work with.

Locally heavy rain is likely. Some locations will pick up one to three inches of rain. This could cause some minor flooding in a few locations. This is especially true of areas that had locally heavy rain Sunday night. Monitor updates.

Here is the broad-brushed rainfall forecast for Thursday night through early Saturday morning. Some locations will exceed these numbers.

One again, this event is centered more across our southeast counties vs northwest. There will be a wide range of rain totals from northwest to southeast.

PWAT values will at the top of the chart with this event. That means plenty of moisture to work with.

PWAT animation map. Watch the wave of higher PWAT values sweep through our region Friday and Friday night. Lot of moisture.

Dew points will be high, as well. This is a concern for severe thunderstorms.

Typically, I look for dew points of 58 degrees and above when considering severe weather. The record high dew point in Paducah is around sixty-six. We may approach that. Again, plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.

Click animations to enlarge them.

Dew points will rapidly rise Friday/Friday night. Perhaps to near record high December dew points. The record high dew point in Paducah is 66 degrees (for December).

Temperatures Friday will be near record warmth. Expect 70s. The high temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover and precipitation. If we have more clouds and rain, than anticipated, then that will shave a few degrees off the thermometer.

These numbers are unusual for the Month of December.

A few showers may remain in the region early Saturday morning, but we should be drying out west to east.

Dry conditions are likely Saturday afternoon and that will continue through at least Monday.

Monitor updates concerning the Friday/Friday night system. I can’t rule out more severe thunderstorms and even tornadoes.

Still a few days to monitor trends.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.