We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
.
.
.
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook has been updated (MONDAY, December 5th)
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also go towards the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.
Contest:
Twenty-Five days of Christmas giving! I will be giving away weather radios and some other items! There will be forty winners. Contest begins now.
Here is the link for the contest. Click here
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED!
The biweekly winter storm outlook has been updated (MONDAY, December 5th)
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Note: If you sign into Weather Talk and click the Daily Weather Summary you can view the winter storm outlook. I update it twice per week.
The password to view the page is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab. I accidently left one letter off the password. If you attempted to view it, but could not, then try again today. Sorry about that 🙂
Join me Thursday night at 7 pm! McCracken County Public Library. Hope to see you there.
December 6, 2016
Tuesday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chilly. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26 to 32 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:54 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:28 p.m. Waxing Crescent
..
December 7, 2016
Wednesday: Partly sunny early. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. A late day shower or snow shower possible. Chances would first arrive over southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways late in the afternoon. Lower than normal confidence. Will monitor snow chances.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 38-46 degree range. Temperatures may fall late in the day behind a strong cold front.
Wind Chill: 26-34 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? I can’t rule out some snow showers late in the day.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 0-2
Moonrise will be at 12:30 a.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m. First Quarter
.
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. A few spotty showers or snow showers possible. Turning colder.
What impact is expected? Most likely none, but monitor updates. If we had a little light snow or rain it could be an issue as temperatures fall.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 24-28 degree range.
Wind Chill: 18-22 degrees
Winds: North and northwest 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Flurries possible. Perhaps some snow showers. Unlikely that it would be anything of significance.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:30 a.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m. First Quarter
.
December 8, 2016
Thursday: Becoming sunny. Breezy. An early morning flurry possible. Much colder.
What impact is expected? Cold wind chills.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: 10-20 degree range
Winds: West and northwest at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Precipitation (if any at all) will be ending.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? A few flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly
Sunrise will be at 6:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 1:06 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:31 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Coldest temperatures of the season, thus far.
What impact is expected? Cold. Low wind chill values possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14-18 degree range.
Wind Chill: 8-16 degree range
Winds: Northwest at 6-12 early and then 3-6 mph late
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
.
December 9, 2016
Friday: Mostly sunny and cold.
What impact is expected? Cold start to the day
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 28-34 degree range
Wind Chill: 24-28 degrees
Winds: West and northwest becoming southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 6:57 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 1:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:38 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Friday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Perhaps some late night high clouds.
What impact is expected? None anticipated, at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14-18 degree range.
Wind Chill: 12-18 degrees
Winds: Variable at 5-10 early and then 2-6 mph late
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
.
December 10, 2016
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What impact is expected? None anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 38-42 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely. I will be monitoring a new system moving in from the west. Precipitation would most likely begin in the evening or overnight.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:58 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 2:23 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:45 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Saturday Night: Cloudy. Rain/snow or a wintry mix developing.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Possible
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
December 11, 2016
Sunday: Cloudy. Morning rain/snow/wintry mix possible. Temperatures rising above freezing. If frozen precipitation occurs then it should change to all rain during the morning hours. As always, monitor updates
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph. Winds may gust above 15 mph. Winds may become variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:58 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 3:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Sunday Night: Cloudy. Rain or snow possible.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered. A bit early for details.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
More information on the UV index. Click here
.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Cold blast
- Spotty rain or snow showers possible as the cold air arrives
- A new winter storm outlook has been posted. You can view the winter storm outlook on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab) Be sure and sign up for the service in order to view the winter outlooks. Remember, my monthly costs are around $700.00.
- BIG Christmas give-away contest continues. I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)! Subscriptions to the texting service! A $100 gift card from Amazon. The contest is open NOW! You must wait 24 hours before entering each day. See details below. There will be FORTY winners!
I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio). I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service. I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!
You may enter once per day through Christmas. You must wait 24 hours before re-entering. The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day! There will be FORTY winners!
Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.
You can find more information on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.
The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
Click graphic to enter the contest.
Also
I update the winter storm outlook twice per week. It is updated more frequently during inclement weather. See the graphic further down in the blog. It has the instructions on how to view the outlook. Remember, the password is NOT the same password you use to sign into your Weather Talk account. The password can be viewed behind the Daily Weather Summary tab. There, you will find the link that will take you to the winter storm outlook.
UPDATED outlook has been posted! Issued on Monday, December 5th
Be sure and join me at the McCracken County Public Library on December 8th. The program will begin at 7 pm. I will be talking about weather (what else)!
More information at this link – Click Here
Weather synopsis:
Key items to remember:
A. Coldest air of the season arrives Thursday and Friday morning
B. A few rain or snow showers as the cold air moves into the region.
C. Weekend system could bring another chance for rain or wintry mix.
Wednesday and Thursday:
Cold air is arriving already arriving in the region. Cold air will continue to filter into the region on Wednesday into Thursday. By Thursday morning temperatures will dip into the 20’s. I can’t rule out some upper teens on Thursday morning. Either way, cold air.
I have a chance for some spotty rain or rain/snow showers. Low confidence. I realize this is within the short range, but there are limiting factors for precipitation to develop. Dry air at the surface and lack of moisture return are the two primary concerns. It does not seem that there is enough moisture for widespread accumulating rain or snow.
I will leave rain and snow showers in the forecast. Perhaps some precipitation will develop.
Temperatures on Wednesday night will quickly fall into the 20’s. IF there is any moisture on roadways then rapidly falling temperatures could cause some slick spots. Again, low confidence there would actually be any issues. Use care, as always.
Let’s look at the WRF model guidance. This is the future-cast radar. Again, one models opinion.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Keep in mind, temperatures will likely be falling IF and when precipitation occurs. I would not focus too much on the blue or green color.
This first image is for 6 pm on Wednesday
This next image is for 9 pm on Wednesday
This next image is for 12 am on Thursday
This next image is for 3 am on Thursday
Again, don’t focus too much on the colors. This would probably be snow (if precipitation even occurs)
A few snow showers or flurries are possible.
Here is the high resolution WRF model from Tuesday afternoon. It pops a bit more in the way of precipitation.
Here is the updated snow probabilities for Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Slim pickings.
Saturday night and Sunday:
I am monitoring a cold front and area of low pressure this coming weekend. The model guidance is not in agreement on the strength of the low or the moisture return. For now, I have precipitation chances for Saturday night into Sunday night. Low confidence on timing and precipitation type. We might have enough cold air that the precipitation could begin as a rain/snow or wintry mix. Monitor updates, as always. The details will become clear as we move forward.
New update has been posted (as of Monday afternoon)
You can still read the previous update on the weather talk web-site.
You can view the forecast by following these instructions. Remember, the winter storm outlook is behind the paywall. It is $3 a month. A typical months worth of expenses is $700.00 or more. This helps offset the costs.
Posts are updated more often when necessary.
To sign up for the text messages you can visit www.beaudodsonweather.com
.
Find me on Twitter, as well!
.
.
How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Small chance for light precipitation on Wednesday afternoon and night. Another system this weekend.
This image is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast graphic.
These are totals from now through Thursday morning. Not much. Perhaps trace amounts.
Pulling into the weekend. Another precipitation system may impact the area. Preliminary totals forecast
Low confidence on weekend totals. Keep checking back.
.
Temperature Outlook
Wednesday morning low temperatures
Temperatures might be a few degrees colder than shown on this forecast map
.
.
Wednesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
.
.
Thursday morning low temperatures
Temperatures
.
.
.
Thursday afternoon high temperatures
.
.
Regional Radar
.
.
.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday night through next Tuesday morning: Severe weather is not anticipated.
.
.
.
No significant changes in this update.
.
.Bitterly cold air arrives over the coming days. Small chance for rain/snow showers Wednesday afternoon and evening. If the roads become wet then use caution on bridges/overpasses. Temperatures will fall into the 20’s on Wednesday night. Any remaining moisture could free.
.
..
.
.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
.
..
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
