Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.
Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
.
.
Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely Friday night into Saturday. Perhaps into Saturday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Severe weather is possible Saturday. At this time, it appears to be a low level damaging wind and tornado threat. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely. Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday night. I can’t rule out some issues in commonly flooded locations. Esp if leaves are blocking drains. Widespread flash flooding is not expected.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates concerning a weekend storm system. A few models show snow and ice. Chances appear limited, for now. I am watching it, as well.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates concerning a weekend storm system. A few models show snow and ice. Chances appear limited, for now. I am watching it, as well.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
.
Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Expect chilly conditions and decreasing clouds today. With winds shifting back to the south late today into this evening, it will be significantly warmer Thursday through Saturday. It will be breezy both Thursday and Friday. A slow moving storm system will move through our region over the weekend. Rain will spread across the area Friday night, with widespread rain and some thunderstorms expected Saturday into Saturday night. Rain will taper off from west to east Sunday into Sunday evening as much cooler air returns.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
.
.
Wednesday, December 6, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Morning clouds. Clearing from west to east through the day. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph becoming southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
.
Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:28 AM
Moonset: 1:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
Thursday, December 7, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
.
Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:27 AM
Moonset: 1:26 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
Friday, December 8, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Milder. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
.
Friday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:25 AM
Moonset: 1:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
-
- Breezy conditions into the weekend.
- Slow warming trends.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
.Forecast Discussion
No weather concerns today. There are still clouds in the region. Those will push off to the east as we move through the day. It will remain cool with highs only in the 40s. A few degrees below average.
Gusty winds are likely over the coming days. Numerous time periods with 10 to 20 mph wind gusts. There will be occasional gusts above 30 mph.
No rain concerns today through Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will slowly moderate into the weekend ahead of our next storm system.
The big weather story continues to be a weekend storm system that could bring locally heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.
There remain some questions about the track of the area of low pressure and its intensity.
We will likely be on the south and east side of the low. That places us in the warm sector. That is where thunderstorms occur.
Here is the Saturday weather map. See the red L? That is the low pressure center.
The next question becomes moisture. Dew points.
I typically, during the winter months, watch for dew points of 58 degrees or above. That is a signal for severe thunderstorms.
Here is the GFS model and the EC model. You can see the dew points rising ahead of the cold front.
The blue shading is 60 and above.
Models are showing dew points in the middle to upper 50s. Perhaps hitting 60 over the Missouri Bootheel northeast along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
Wind shear will be strong, as well.
CAPE is always in question during the winter months. CAPE is energy that storms tap into. It does not take much CAPE. Even 100 to 600 joules can be enough for severe weather concerns.
Models are showing 100 to 500 joules. Occasionally showing more than that. We probably won’t have a handle on CAPE until Friday or even Saturday morning.
Here is the GFS model. It is showing some CAPE in our region ahead of the cold front.
Ensembles are showing some potential for CAPE.
Ensembles are the same model but they run over and over again with slightly different beginning variables.
The more squares that agree, the higher the chance of that solution verifying. Numerous squares show at least a little CAPE in our region. Many shows 300 to 600 joules.
What does all of that mean for you?
Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to ramp up Friday evening and night. Becoming numerous during the overnight hours.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday.
The cold front will advance from west to east across the region Saturday late morning into the afternoon hours. Likely clearing our region by Saturday night.
Peak severe chances will occur right along the cold front or just ahead of it. My concern is damaging wind and short-lived QLCS tornadoes.
QLCS tornadoes are common in our region. They typically last a few minutes and travel hundreds of yards and occasionally a mile or two. They tend to be EF0 and EF1 and occasionally EF2.
The BIG tornado in 2021 was a supercell thunderstorm tornado. Supercells tend to produce long tracked and violent tornadoes.
This is NOT that kind of set up for our region. This is a common winter type severe weather.
There remain uncertainties about how far north and east to draw the severe weather risk.
The SPC will likely place most of our region in a marginal risk of severe weather Saturday.
They will issue that tomorrow.
They already have a level two or higher risk across portions of our region. The Missouri Bootheel. Again, I suspect more of our region will be added to the risk zone in future updates.
This is the current SPC outlook for Saturday. The yellow zone is a level 2 or 3 risk. The SPC has stated they are going to draw a level one risk farther north and east. We don’t know how far, yet.
Some of the analog computer learning models are showing the threat of severe weather into our region. Here is one of those.
This is a models forecast for Saturday’s severe threat.
Let me show you a couple more graphics.
What is the chance of 60 mph winds within 25 miles of any given point. This would be Saturday afternoon and evening.
You can see some dark green in our area. That would be 10 to 20% chance.
I will keep an eye on trends.
Rainfall totals of an inch are likely with this system. It is possible that many areas pick up greater than an inch of rain.
Here is the official WPC rainfall outlook. Take the general idea from this.
Colder air will push into the region Saturday night and Sunday. Lingering rain showers will be possible. If enough cold air filters into the region, then the rain may mix with sleet or snow. At this time, impacts are not anticipated.
Dry conditions next Monday through Wednesday.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
.
Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
.
Tornado Probability Outlook
.
Large Hail Probability Outlook
.
High wind Probability Outlook
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
.
.
The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
_______________________________________
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
.
This animation is the EC Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the GFS Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
