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Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook has been updated (MONDAY, December 5th)
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also go towards the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.
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Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and the blog for 25 days of Christmas giving! I will be giving away weather radios and some other items! There will be forty winners. Contest begins now.
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
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December 5, 2016
Guidance has trended south with the higher rain totals. See the graphics further down in the blog. Keep this in mind. Northern counties of southeast Missouri and northern counties of southern Illinois may not see much in the way of rainfall.
Monday Night: Rain developing from south to north. Lesser rain over northern counties near Farmington, Missouri over towards Mt Vernon, Illinois. The bigger rain totals will be over far southeast Missouri, southern seven counties of southern Illinois, western Kentucky/Tennessee. Small chance for lightning.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-46 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: East and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80% far southeast Missouri and 60% northern parts of southeast Missouri. IL ~ 70% for southern seven counties of southern Illinois and 50% for northern parts of southern Illinois (Mt Vernon area). KY ~ 100% . TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to widespread. Best coverage south vs north.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:17 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:26 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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The biweekly winter storm outlook has been updated (MONDAY, December 5th)
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
December 6, 2016
Rainfall totals for Monday and Tuesday should range from 0.40 to 0.80. Locally heavier totals possible.
Tuesday: Cloudy. Breezy. Rain should taper off during the morning. Perhaps some clearing in the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Lightning possible before 5 am.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West and northwest at 7-14 mph. Winds could gust to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60% (mainly early in the day)
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread before 9 am and then tapering through the day.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Morning rain possible.
Sunrise will be at 6:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 11:54 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:28 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chilly.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26 to 32 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 7, 2016
Wednesday: Partly sunny early. A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday afternoon. Becoming cloudy. Perhaps a few spotty showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Depending on the timing of the front we might have falling temperatures late in the day.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways late in the afternoon. Lower than normal confidence. Will monitor snow chances.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 44-46 degree range. Temperatures may fall late in the day behind a strong cold front.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Northeast winds 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Most likely not during the day.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 0-2
Moonrise will be at 12:30 a.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m. First Quarter
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Wednesday Night: Cloudy. A few spotty showers or snow showers possible. Turning sharply colder. Blustery conditions.
What impact is expected? Most likely none, but monitor updates. If we had a little light snow or rain it could be an issue as temperatures fall.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 24-28 degree range.
Wind Chill: 18-22 degrees
Winds: North and northwest 6-12 mph with stronger gusts likely.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? I can’t rule a few snow showers.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updates. Precipitation is possible on Wednesday night.
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December 8, 2016
Thursday: Becoming sunny. Breezy. Small chance for a morning flurry. Much colder.
What impact is expected? Cold wind chills.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: 10-20 degree range
Winds: West and northwest at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Precipitation should have come to an end by Thursday. Monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Possible
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly
Sunrise will be at 6:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 1:06 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:31 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Coldest temperatures of the season, thus far.
What impact is expected? Cold. Low wind chill values possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14-18 degree range.
Wind Chill: 8-16 degree range
Winds: Northwest at 7-14 early and then 4-8 mph late
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
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December 9, 2016
Friday: Mostly sunny and cold. A few afternoon clouds.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 28-34 degree range
Wind Chill: 24-28 degrees
Winds: West and northwest becoming southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 6:57 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 1:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:38 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Perhaps some late night high clouds.
What impact is expected? None anticipated, at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 16-22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 14-20 degrees
Winds: South at 7-14 early and then 4-8 mph late
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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December 10, 2016
Saturday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 38-42 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:58 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 2:23 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:45 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Cloudy. Perhaps some snow showers. Low confidence this far out.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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December 11, 2016
Sunday: Cloudy. Precipitation is possible, but still a bit early for details.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:58 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 3:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Cloudy. Some precipitation is possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Monday night and Tuesday morning rain. Perhaps some lightning. Highest rain totals over far SE MO, western KY, and TN.
- Monitoring rain shower and snow shower chances for Wednesday afternoon and night
- A new winter storm outlook has been posted. You can view the winter storm outlook on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab) Be sure and sign up for the service in order to view the winter outlooks. Remember, my monthly costs are around $700.00.
- BIG contest on Facebook! I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)! Subscriptions to the texting service! A $100 gift card from Amazon. The contest is open NOW! You must wait 24 hours before entering each day.
I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio). I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service. I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!
You may enter once per day through Christmas. You must wait 24 hours before re-entering. The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day! There will be FORTY winners!
Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.
You can find more information on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.
The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
Click graphic to enter the contest.
Also
I update the winter storm outlook twice per week. It is updated more frequently during inclement weather. See the graphic further down in the blog. It has the instructions on how to view the outlook. Remember, the password is NOT the same password you use to sign into your Weather Talk account. The password can be viewed behind the Daily Weather Summary tab. There, you will find the link that will take you to the winter storm outlook.
UPDATED outlook has been posted! Issued on Monday, December 5th
Be sure and join me at the McCracken County Public Library on December 8th. The program will begin at 7 pm. I will be talking about weather (what else)!
More information at this link – Click Here
Weather synopsis:
Key items to remember:
A. Rain and storms Monday night/Tuesday morning
B. Strong cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rain and snow chances.
C. Changeable forecasts are likely. We are now in the active time of the year for winter storms and precipitation events. Check back often.
D. Always monitor updated forecasts. If you leave in the morning with one forecast it may not be enough. Check back. Winter systems are notoriously difficult to forecast.
A busy ten days ahead of us. Systems will pass through the region every 2-3 days. This will keep precipitation chances going. We need the rain, so I am not complaining. The real question will be snow. Can one of these systems produce accumulating snow?
We have an area of low pressure moving north and northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico. This would normally be a great track for snow. There is not enough cold air to work with and the intensity of the low is not strong enough to produce a winter storm. It is close, but just not close enough.
We typically have snow chances from December through the middle of March. We are one week into winter storm season. Still many weeks ahead of us. I know some of you like snow and some of you hate snow. I will go into more detail on the winter storm outlook (updated twice per each). That can be viewed over on the Weather Talk website.
Rain will spread into our region Monday evening and night. The track of the area of low pressure has shifted further south and southeast. This has caused some changes in the rainfall totals. I have updated the graphic. Here it is.
What is the % chance for X amount of rain falling.
I lowered the probabilities just a bit.
Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar from the WRF model guidance. This is what radar might look like Monday evening into Tuesday. The rain should end from west to east on Tuesday late morning into the afternoon hours.
Here is the 6 pm future-cast radar (Monday)
Green represents rain. Dark green is moderate rain. The yellow, orange, and red colors are moderate to heavy rain/storms.
This next image is for 12 am on Tuesday. Quite a bit of rain in the area. Notice the lack of rain over our far northwest and northern counties.
This is the 3 am future-cast radar. Again, notice the lack of rain to the northwest and north. Greatest coverage is over far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This next image is for 6 am on Tuesday. Rain continues over much of the area.
This next image is for 9 am on Tuesday. Rain will pull away during the mid to late morning hours. Ending from west to east.
This next image is the lunch hour on Tuesday.
Wednesday and Thursday:
A strong cold front arrives on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. There will not be much moisture to work with. At this time, it appears some spotty showers may develop Wednesday into Wednesday night. As the cold air filters into the region some of the showers might turn to snow showers. No significant accumulation is anticipated, at this time. As always, monitor updates for changes.
Bitterly cold air arrives Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Gusty winds, as well. Wind chills will dip into the 10-20 degree range late Wednesday night into Thursday. It will be a ‘bundle the kids up’ type of day. Especially for the bus stop on Thursday and Friday morning. Brrr
Thursday morning might deliver a flurry or two, but we should see clearing sky conditions. Cold.
Thursday night/Friday morning will deliver clear sky conditions and cold temperatures. Lows on Friday morning will dip into the teens. Highs will remain in the 30’s on both Thursday and Friday.
Saturday morning will deliver temperatures in the upper teens and lower 20’s. Highs on Saturday might remain in the 30’s to lower 40’s. Cold.
Saturday night and Sunday:
A new weather system will approach our region on Saturday night into Sunday night. Model guidance is all over the place with how to handle that system. Some of the guidance shows no rain or snow. Other guidance shows both rain and snow.
At this time, I believe we will be dealing with at least a chance for precipitation on Saturday night or Sunday. Way too early for details. Keep it in mind.
The active pattern should continue into next week.
WINTER STORM UPDATE:
New update has been posted (as of Monday afternoon)
You can still read the previous update on the weather talk web-site.
You can view the forecast by following these instructions. Remember, the winter storm outlook is behind the paywall. It is $3 a month. A typical months worth of expenses is $700.00 or more. This helps offset the costs.
Posts are updated more often when necessary.
To sign up for the text messages you can visit www.beaudodsonweather.com
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Find me on Twitter, as well!
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
I already showed you rainfall totals for Saturday night through Tuesday morning.
This image is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast graphic.
These are totals from now through Wednesday morning.
Let me zoom in on our region. Again, click images to enlarge (that goes for all graphics on this page)
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.Temperature Outlook
Tuesday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Wednesday morning low temperatures
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Wednesday afternoon high temperatures
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Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday night through Tuesday morning: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday night through next Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Fine tuning the Wednesday/Thursday outlook.
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Lightning possible Monday night. Let’s keep an eye on the Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night forecast. Bitterly cold by Thursday/Friday.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
