Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Tuesday, December 5,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Tuesday Forecast:  Morning clouds.  Patchy morning fog.  Becoming partly sunny. Breezy.  A slight chance of an early morning shower our southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 AM.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~  52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction:  West northwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset:  12:43 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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Wednesday, December 6,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Wednesday Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 8 to 16 mph becoming southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 31° to 33°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 31° to 33°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:28 AM
Moonset:  1:04 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Thursday, December 7,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Thursday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~  56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction:  South 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:27 AM
Moonset:  1:26 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Friday, December 8,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Friday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Milder. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction:  South 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:25 AM
Moonset:  1:49 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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We are waking up to cloudy sky conditions across the bulk of the area.  There was some patchy clearing, as well.  A few light showers were drifting across southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

Patchy fog was an issue in some areas, as well.  Temperatures were in the 30s.  A few locations dipped right below 30 degrees.

Don’t forget, during the winter months, to watch bridges and overpasses in the event a few slick spots form due to freezing fog.  Fog can leave moisture on grass, surfaces, and cars.  That moisture can freeze.

The rest of today will deliver partly sunny sky conditions.  Where clouds are thicker, they should thin with time.

No weather concerns tonight through Friday afternoon.

We will have a windy week ahead of us.  Windy into the weekend.  You can expect widespread 10 to 20 mph into the weekend.  Occasionally, gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be an issue.

I can’t rule out higher than 30 mph wind gusts this weekend as the storm system moves across our region.

The next big weather story is the weekend cold front.

Models are coming into better agreement on the timing of the event.  It appears that the bulk of Friday will remain dry.  During the day.

Clouds will increase from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon and night.  With time, scattered showers and thunderstorms will push across the region Friday night into Saturday morning.

The precipitation will become widespread Saturday into Saturday night.

This is likely going to be an event that drops a widespread one inch of rain across the region.  We need it.  There should be pockets of one to two inches of rain.

The WPC/NOAA is fairly bullish on this rain event.  They are going with higher totals that a lot of the models are showing.

Here is what the WPC is forecasting for weekend rain totals.  Double click images to enlarge them.

The models are not quite as bullish.

Here is the ensemble mean from the GFS and EC model.  These ensembles are the same model but they run them over and over and over again.  Then, they come up with a mean.  They have been ran about 100 times.

GFS Ensemble Mean

What is the probability of one inch or more of rain Friday through Sunday?

EC Ensemble Mean

What is the probability of one inch or more of rain Friday through Sunday?

The EC is a bit more bullish on achieving one inch or more of rain.

Either way, this will be a widespread rain event.  Rainfall totals are an inch are possible.   Rainfall totals over an inch are certainly possible.

There will be a threat of severe weather with this event.

The Storm Prediction Center has stated that our region will likely be in a level one risk of damaging wind and tornadoes.

For now, the threat is higher to our south and southwest.

Here is where the level 2 or 3 risk will be placed.  Subject to adjustments.

This graphic does not show the level one risk, yet.    The level one risk will be added later this week.

There remain differences in the models as to the exact track of the area of low pressure and intensity.  This is important when trying to determine the extent of the severe weather threat.

At this time, parameters are there for at least a level one risk of severe weather.  The risk level goes up to five.  One being the lowest.  Five being the highest.

The models do show some CAPE.  If you remember, CAPE is basically energy that storms tap into.  During the winter months it does not take much CAPE to cause problems.  Even 100 to 500 joules can be enough for severe weather.

The EC paints numbers in the 100 to 600 range.  Thus, we should continue to monitor the severe threat.

As far as snow chances go…

The models do show snow on the backside of the weekend system.  Mostly to our north and west.

The EC model is the most bullish for rain ending as sleet and snow in our local area.  With that said, it is the outlier.  It has been persistent.

The GFS is a bit warmer and not as intense of a storm system.  It keeps the snow away from our region.

I like to look at ensembles when forecasting snow past day three or four.

Remember, ensembles are the same model ran over and over and over again.  Up to 100 times!

They begin the model with slightly different variables.  The more squares that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

If 90 out of 100 squares show us receiving heavy snow, then my confidence in snow is very high.  If only ten of the squares show snow, then my confidence in snow is low.

Let’s look at the ensemble snowfall totals for this event.

How many squares show the heavy snow over our area?  Perhaps four or five of the squares.   There are a total of 75 squares.

Not many.

The bulk show the heavy snow well away from my forecast counties.

Quite a few of the squares do show snow showers in our region.  I can’t rule out the rain ending as a brief wintry mix as the system pulls away.

Typically, rain ending as snow around here does not amount to much.  For now, don’t get too excited snow lovers.  Keep checking back for updates.

Adjustments to the forecast are always possible.  Esp this far out.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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High wind Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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This  animation is the EC Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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