Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Sunday night. I will monitor Monday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? YES. Temperatures will drop below freezing tonight, tomorrow, and Friday night.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES. Wind chill values Thursday morning, Thursday night, and Friday morning could drop below 10 degrees in areas with temperatures in the teens.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I will monitor the middle of next week.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I will monitor the middle of next week.
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Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Gusty southwest winds can be expected today, shifting to the northwest late today into tonight behind a cold front. Dispersion will be fair to good today with mixing heights from around 2000-3000 feet. Northwest to north winds will gradually decrease Thursday, dispersion will again be fair to good, and mixing heights will be in the 3000-3500 foot range.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
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48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Becoming windy. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Windy. Turning bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (east)
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:12 AM
Moonset: 7:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Thursday morning wind chill values will be bitterly cold. What it feels like to the skin.
Double click images to enlarge them.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 14°
Southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Southern Illinois ~13° to 16°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 14° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 14° to 18°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 13° to 16°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 18°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
Moonrise: 10:52 AM
Moonset: 8:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30° (coldest before 9 am)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 11:26 AM
Moonset: 10:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds. Not as cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 11:55 AM
Moonset: 11:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time, but more likely late at night
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars (link bottom of the page)
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 12:22 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Briefly warmer today.
- More cold air arrives tonight into Friday night.
- Cold for the kids at the bus stop this week. Tomorrow morning and Friday morning will feature wind chill values in the single digits and teens.
- Warming trend Sunday and Monday.
- Rain chances ramp up Sunday and Monday.
Beau’s Forecast Discussion
As a reminder.
Kids at the bus stop this week will need to be bundled up. It is going to be quite cold this week. Several mornings will deliver lows in the teens with wind chill values of 0 to 15 above.
The coldest mornings will be Thursday and Friday morning. That is when wind chill values will be in the single digits and teens.
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Good morning, everyone.
We are waking up to rising temperatures. A warm front has moved through the region.
Temperatures last night bottomed out in the 20s. They have risen into the 30s.
I have not received any reports of freezing drizzle. We did have a slight chance in the forecast last night over portions of the region.
No concerns this morning, thankfully.
Today will be warmer and windy. Highs will top out mostly in the 50s with gusty south southwest winds at 15 to 35 mph. A few reporting sites may top out in the upper 40s.
An arctic cold front will push through the region tonight. A small chance of a shower along the leading edge of the front. Mainly over our far eastern counties.
That front will bring northwest winds in the 15 to 30 mph range. Falling temperatures. Low wind chill values.
Most locations will be in the teens and lower 20s by tomorrow morning. Wind chill values of 5 to 15 above. Brrrr.
Thursday morning wind chill values
Thursday 12 PM wind chill values
Thursday will be a quiet weather day with cold temperatures. Bitterly cold Thursday night, as well.
Friday will remain cold. Below average temperatures.
Friday morning wind chill values
A slow moderating trend will begin Saturday with temperatures climbing to near seasonal levels by Sunday and Monday.
That will be ahead of our next storm system. That system will arrive Sunday and Monday with widespread rain.
Peak rain chances will be Sunday night and Monday. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible.
At this time, severe weather is not anticipated.
Some of the data shows another system right behind the Sunday/Monday one. For now, I am simply monitoring trends on that system. Confidence in a second system is low.
Sunday and Monday Rainfall Totals
Totals of 0.75″ to 1.50″ are anticipated. Here is the rainfall forecast map.
Butler County is clipped on this graphic. They are anticipating around 0.80 to 1.10″ of rain. Let’s monitor trends on this map. They are usually adjusted as we draw closer to the rain event. No snow or ice anticipated.
.Let’s look at the future-cast radars.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
The EC model shows those showers developing throughout today into tonight.
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
Here is the GFS model.
Cold weather reminders
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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