Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 4, 2016: Light rain. Chilly temperatures.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog…

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab).  Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts.  Your support is crucial.

The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  You will also find the password there.  The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.

The winter storm outlook has been updated (Wednesday, November 30th)  The next update will be Monday, December 5th

Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab

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December 3, 2016
Saturday Night: Cloudy.  Chilly light rain.  Perhaps a pellet of sleet at the beginning of the rain.  Light rain may mix with a few wet novelty snowflakes.  Small chances, overall for any frozen precipitation.
What impact is expected
Wet roadways.  I will monitor temperatures concerning rain/snow mix.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 32-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: 28-34 degrees.
Winds:  Northeast and east winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 90%.  IL ~ 90%.  KY ~ 90% .  TN ~ 90%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Becoming widespread overnight.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  I can’t rule out some wet snow mixed in with the rain. No accumulation anticipated.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:28 p.m.  Waxing Crescent

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December 4, 2016
Rainfall totals from Saturday night through Sunday morning should be 0.10″ to 0.30″.  Light event.
Sunday:  Cloudy.  A chance for morning showers.  Small chance for a wet novelty snowflake mixed in.  No accumulation.  Rain will push out of the region on Sunday afternoon.  Ending from west to east.  Damp day.  Cool temperatures.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.  Again, I will monitor temperatures.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:   High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 42-46  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Northeast at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 60% .  TN ~ 60% (early in the morning and ending from west to east through the day)
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Scattered to widespread (mainly during the morning hours)
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Most likely just rain.  Perhaps a few wet snowflakes mixed in.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Consider a plan B.  Damp weather.
Sunrise will be at 6:53 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  0-1

Moonrise
will be at 10:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:26 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Sunday Night:  Partly cloudy early.  Becoming cloudy overnight.  Chilly.
What impact is expected
None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 32-36 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Northeast 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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December 5, 2016
Monday:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain chances increasing through the day from south to north.  
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 46-52  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 40%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 40% (increasing chances during the afternoon hours)
Coverage of
precipitation?  
Scattered, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars after 12 pm
Sunrise
will be at 6:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 0-2

Moonrise
will be at 11:17 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:26 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Monday Night:  Cloudy. Widespread chilly rain.   A few thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 40-46 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Northeast and east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 80%.  IL ~ 80%.  KY ~ 90% .  TN ~ 90%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

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December 6, 2016
Rainfall totals for Monday and Tuesday could be greater than 0.30″.
Tuesday:  Cloudy. Breezy.  Rain should taper off during the morning.  Perhaps some clearing in the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.  Lightning possible.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 46-52  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West and northwest at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 40%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 40% (mainly early in the day)
Coverage of
precipitation?
 Scattered, but precipitation will end through the morning hours.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.  Morning rain possible.
Sunrise
will be at 6:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise
will be at 11:54 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:28 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday Night:  Partly to mostly cloudy. 
What impact is expected
? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  North and northwest 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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December 7, 2016
Wednesday:  Partly sunny early.  Becoming cloudy.  A chance for showers during the afternoon.  If the front arrives sooner than anticipated then falling temperatures are possible over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Much colder behind the front.  Showers could change to light snow.  Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.  Monitor updates concerning falling temperatures during the afternoon/evening hours.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 45-50  degree range.  Temperatures may fall late in the day behind a strong cold front.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Southwest turning northwest at 6-12 mph.  Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation? 
Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise
will be at 6:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 0-3

Moonrise
will be at 12:30 a.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m.  First Quarter
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Wednesday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Showers may change to snow showers.  Turning sharply colder.  Blustery conditions.
What impact is expected
Wet roadways.  I will be monitoring temperatures in case the rain changes over to frozen precipitation.  Flash freeze can’t be ruled out.  That is when moisture remains on roadways as temperatures quickly fall into the 20’s.  This can occasionally cause problems.  Monitor updates, as always.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 24-28 degree range.
Wind Chill: 18-22 degrees
Winds:  Northwest 6-12 mph with stronger gusts likely.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 40%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of
precipitation
Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars and updates.  Precipitation is possible on Wednesday night.

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December 8, 2016
Thursday:  Partly cloudy.  Breezy.  Much colder.  Precipitation likely ending before 9 am.  
What impact is expected? Monitor updates concerning precipitation changing to snow on Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  Low confidence.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 35-40  degree range.
Wind Chill: 20-30 degree
Winds:  West and northwest at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation? 
Precipitation should have come to an end by Thursday.  Monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be chilly
Sunrise
will be at 6:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2

Moonrise
will be at 1:06 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:31 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Night:  Mostly clear and cold.  Coldest temperatures of the season, thus far.
What impact is expected
?  Cold.  Low wind chill values possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 14-18 degree range.
Wind Chill: 10-15 degrees
Winds:  Northwest at 7-14 early and then 4-8  mph late
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold

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December 9, 2016
Friday:  Mostly sunny and cold.
What impact is expected?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 35-40 degree range
Wind Chill
Winds:  West and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise
will be at 6:57 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2

Moonrise
will be at 1:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:38 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Night:  Increasing clouds possible.
What impact is expected
?  None anticipated, at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 16-22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 10-15 degrees
Winds:  Northwest at 7-14 early and then 4-8  mph late
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.

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December 10, 2016
Saturday:  Increasing clouds.  Cold. I am monitoring yet another system for the weekend.  Low confidence.
What impact is expected? 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill
Winds:  West and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
Sunrise
will be at 6:58 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2

Moonrise
will be at 2:23 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:45 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night:  Cloudy.
What impact is expected
?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 26-34 degree range.
Wind Chill
Winds:  N
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
: 
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1. Active pattern.
  2. Coldest air of the season
  3. Winter storm update has been posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab)  Be sure and sign up for the service in order to view the winter outlooks.  Remember, my monthly costs are around $700.00.
  4. BIG contest on Facebook!  I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)!  Subscriptions to the texting service!  A $100 gift card from Amazon.  The contest is open NOW!  You must wait 24 hours before entering each day.

I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio).  I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service.  I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!

You may enter once per day through Christmas.  You must wait 24 hours before re-entering.  The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day!  There will be FORTY winners!

Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.

You can find more information on the Beau  Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.

The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.

You may enter once each day!  You have to wait 24 hours before each entry.  For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.

Click graphic to enter the contest.

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Also

I have updated the winter storm forecast.  I update the winter storm outlook twice per week.  It is updated more frequently during inclement weather.  There was quite a bit to talk about today.  See the graphic further down in the blog.  It has the instructions on how to view the outlook.  Remember, the password is NOT the same password you use to sign into your Weather Talk account.  The password can be viewed behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.  There, you will find the link that will take you to the winter storm outlook.

The next update will be issued on Monday.

Weather synopsis:

Key items to remember:

A.  I am tracking four precipitation events

B.  Changeable forecasts are likely.  We are now in the active time of the year for winter storms and precipitation events.  Check back often.

C.  Always monitor updated forecasts.  If you leave in the morning with one forecast it may not be enough.  Check back.  Winter systems are notoriously difficult to forecast.

D.  The overall pattern, over the next few weeks, favors snow in the Missouri and Ohio Valley.  The potential is there.  Potential does not always equal reality.

Be sure and join me at the McCracken County Public Library on December 8th.  The program will begin at 7 pm.  I will be talking about weather (what else)!

More information at this link – Click Here

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A busy time of the year for meteorologists.  Winter is actually busier than spring!  Hard to imagine.

Fast moving weather over the coming weeks.  Active storm track.

247bh84

Case in point, I am tracking several precipitation events over the coming ten days.

Let’s break it down.

The first system is already arriving in the area (as of late Saturday afternoon/evening).  This system will be a light rain event.  Temperatures tonight will dip into the 30’s.  Cold rain.  I can’t completely rule out a few novelty sleet pellets or wet snowflakes, but no accumulation is anticipated.

Here is my snow forecast for tonight’s system (Saturday night/Sunday)

updated1

Rainfall amounts will be fairly light.  Some areas may only pick up 0.05″ to 0.10″.  Southern Missouri into western Kentucky and Tennessee will see the largest totals.  Those totals should range from 0.20″ to 0.30″.  A few spots could pick up a tad more.

Not a big rain event.  We will take what we can get.  We are still in drought.

Here is my updated rainfall probability chart.  What is the % odds of X amount of rain falling?

As you can see, odds favor light totals.

updated2

Here is what the GFS is forecasting for rainfall totals Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Not much.

qpf_048h-wxt_ov

The WRF/NAM model shows heavier totals just to our south.  Again, this is for Saturday night and Sunday

qpf_048h-wxt_ov-2

Here is the WRF model guidance future-cast radar.  The colors represent precipitation.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is moderate snow.  Green is rain.  Dark green is moderate rain.  Yellow and red colors are heavier showers and thunderstorms.

This first image is for 6 pm Saturday evening.  Some of this may not be reaching the ground.  Virga.  Dry air at the surface caused the rain drops to evaporate before hitting the ground.  It can sometimes take several hours to moisten up the atmospheric column.  What is an atmosphere column?  That would be from the ground up into the clouds.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_12

This net image is 12 am Sunday morning.  Light rain should be occurring over most of our area.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_18

This next image is for 6 am on Sunday.  The snow is knocking on our northern doorsteps.  Again, I can’t rule out some wet snowflakes.  That would mainly be over our northern counties.  No accumulation.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_24

This next image is for 12 pm on Sunday.  Rain will taper off as the day wears on.  Check out the light to moderate snow from central Illinois into northern Illinois.  The first accumulating snow of the season will occur tonight and tomorrow.  This will be important for what happens as we move towards the middle and end of the week.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_30

This last image is for 6 pm on Sunday.  Rain should be over by that time.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_36

MONDAY AND TUESDAY

Another system will quickly follow on the heels of system one.  I promised you an active pattern.  An active pattern you will have.

This will be a stronger system. An organized area of low pressure will develop in Texas and Louisiana.  This low will move north and northeast on Monday into Monday night.  Severe weather is likely to occur in the warm sector of the storm.  That would include areas like southern Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.  Areas that were hit hard earlier this week.

Rain will spread into our region on Monday afternoon and evening.  Moderate rain is possible on Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Lightning is also possible.  Severe weather will remain to our south.

Rainfall totals will system number two will be heavier.  Expect widespread 0.50″ to 1.00″.  Pockets of higher totals possible.

Here is my latest rainfall probability chart for the Monday afternoon into Monday night event.

montueevent

Here is what the GFS model is forecasting for the Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning event.  Pockets of heavier totals are a possibility.  Part of this will depend on the track of the area of low pressure.  Notice the heavier rain over eastern Tennessee.  So thankful to see this rainfall.

qpf_048h-wxt_ov-3

The Canadian GEM model has pockets of heavier totals.  The placement is different.  This is because the GEM tracks the low just a little bit different.

qpf_048h-wxt_ov-4

Here is the NAM.  This model is the heaviest.  This is for Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.

qpf_048h-wxt_ov-5

Let’s check out the WRF NAM model guidance.  This is future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Dark green is moderate rain.  The yellow and red colors are heavier downpours.

This first image is for 9 am on Monday.  You can see the rain is to our south.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_41

This next image is for 6 pm on Monday.  Rain has completely overspread the region.  Some moderate downpours.  You can see the surface low pressure is situated over southern Arkansas and Louisiana.  If colder temperature were present then this would be a winter storm for our region.  As it stands, it won’t be cold enough for snow.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_44

Rain will continue into Monday night and Tuesday morning.  Rain will end on Tuesday.

Tuesday night will be dry.

Wednesday and Thursday:

A fast moving cold front will push into the region on Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will quickly fall behind the front.  A flash freeze is possible.  A flash freeze occurs when rain falls ahead of a cold front.  Temperatures then quickly drop into the 20’s.  Road surfaces are fairly warm, but if temperatures fall fast enough we might have slick spots on bridges and overpasses.

SNOW:

Will it snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning?  It is possible.  If this system had a better organized area of low pressure then moderate to heavy snow would fall in the cold sector of the cyclone.  Right now the models are not handling the setup very well.  There is quite a bit of doubt about how much precipitation will fall Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.  There remain questions on precipitation type, as well.  Monitor updates.  This system is still several days away.

BITTERLY COLD:

The coldest air of the season arrives on Wednesday night into Saturday.  You can expect highs in the 30’s on Thursday and Friday.  Overnight lows into the 20’s on Thursday morning, teens on Friday morning, teens on Saturday morning.  Wind chills will be even colder on Thursday.

Here are some temperature forecast maps.

Thursday morning temperatures

Click image to enlarge

sfctmin_006h-wxt_ov-2

Friday morning low temperatures.  Brrrr

It is possible that temperatures will be colder than shown.

sfctmin_006h-wxt_ov-3

Guys, these weather app’s you are using to monitor snow totals…they are worthless.  They change their forecast every few hours.  Why?  Because it isn’t a human being.  It is a computer generated forecast.

Click to enlarge.  I like this graphic.

plincolongrangemodels

 

WINTER STORM UPDATE:  

UPDATED on Wednesday, November 30th.   The next update will be Monday.

I have updated the winter storm outlook.  The third of the season.  The winter storm outlook will be posted twice a week.

You can view the forecast by following these instructions.  Remember, the winter storm outlook is behind the paywall.  It is $3 a month.  A typical months worth of expenses is $700.00 or more.  This helps offset the costs.

The next winter storm update will be posted on Monday, December 5th.  Posts are made more frequently when necessary (when winter weather is forecast).

To sign up for the text messages you can visit www.beaudodsonweather.com

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Find me on Twitter, as well!

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

I already showed you rainfall totals for Saturday night through Tuesday morning.

This image is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast graphic.

These are totals from now through Wednesday morning.

wpc_total_precip_ky_14

Let me zoom in on our region.  Again, click images to enlarge (that goes for all graphics on this page)

wpc_total_precip_nashville_14

wpc_total_precip_stlouis_14

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Temperature Outlook

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Sunday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Monday morning low temperatures
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Monday afternoon high temperatures
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Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Saturday night through Monday morning:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Monday afternoon into Tuesday night:  I will be closely monitoring an area of low pressure that is forecast to pass near our region.  Perhaps some lightning.  At this time it appears the severe weather threat will remain to our south and east.

I will be monitoring a storm system December 7th through the 8th.  Thunderstorms are unlikely.  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Updated rain probabilities for the weekend.
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No major concerns.  Rain tonight into Sunday morning.  Rain Monday afternoon into Monday night/Tuesday morning.  Bitterly cold air by Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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