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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday night – Clear and cool
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 26 to 32 degrees over the region.
Winds: Northeast winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Mostly sunny and cool
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Northeast/east winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Clear and chilly
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 26 to 32 degrees
Winds: Northeast winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Just a few clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Clear and chilly
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 50s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Mostly cloudy sky conditions. Small chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly cloudy. A small chance for a sprinkle or shower before 7 am.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways
Monday night – Clearing sky conditions. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: Northeast/east winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm weather
2. Above normal temperatures expected for much of the coming 8-14 day period.
3. Small precipitation chances
Our calm weather continues. The first half of December will not be remembered for weather.
I am not tracking any significant storm systems. There is a weak system showing up in the charts for Sunday night and Monday. Small shower chances will be associated with this system. Otherwise, dry weather should rule into much of next week.
Here is that weak system on the GFS guidance package. GFS is one of many computer models that meteorologists can look at when tracking systems. You can see a sliver of green over our local counties on Monday morning. That represents a few showers between midnight and 6 am. Chances don’t appear all that great.
Along with the dry weather you can expect normal to above normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50-52 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 32 degrees.
Odds favor above normal temperatures over the coming 1-2 weeks. Let’s look at the probability maps.
Remember, December was expected to bring above normal temperatures. There was a time when I was thinking below normal temperatures. Then I switched sides on that forecast. The above normal temperatures are the more likely scenario. This should be a back weighted winter.
Here is the official 6-10 day temperature outlook. This takes us from Tuesday, December 8th through Saturday, December 12th.
The red colors mean that odds favor above normal temperatures.
Here is the 8-14 day temperature outlook. This takes us through the middle of the month.
No snow anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No significant changes to this forecast package.
No major concerns. Still some rises on area rivers and streams.
No. Calm weather to continue.
The wild card in this update will be whether or not a couple of light showers develop Sunday night and Monday. Low chance.
Frost possible Friday – Sunday mornings. Freeze possible Friday and Saturday morning.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain in the forecast through Saturday
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Thursday through next Thursday
.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
