Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

 

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

 

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St Louis, Missouri.  National Weather Service Briefing on a potential winter storm.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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Long Range Video Update

 

 

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast:  A windy advisory is in effect.  A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers.  Windy.  Temperatures may actually fall during the day from west to east.  Colder air will be moving into the region.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the morning hours.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction:  West 15 to 35 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:08 AM
Moonset: 5:30 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler. I can’t rule out some flurries Wednesday into Thursday night.  Mainly over our northern and northeastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Cold.  A few flurries possible over mainly our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:51 AM
Moonset: 6:40 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cool.  A chance of a few flurries over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest  wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cold.  A chance of snow showers over mainly our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  I will monitor the snow showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:28 AM
Moonset: 7:51 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Friday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A slight chance of morning flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~36° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction:   Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 25° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:58 AM
Moonset: 9:02 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Good morning, everyone.

Happy new year.  I hope you have a wonderful New Year’s Eve.  Stay safe if you must travel.

We are waking up to gusty winds.  They are about 10 mph faster than I expected.  We are experiencing some gusts above 40 mph.

A wind advisory has been issued.

The reason for the wind is tight isobars.

Isobars are equal lines of barometric pressure.   You can see this on the barometric pressure chart below.

Rapidly rising and rapidly falling pressure creates strong winds.

These winds will be with us through most of today.  Some gusty winds tonight, as well.  This will make it feel colder.

We did have showers and thunderstorms overnight.  Some of the thunderstorms even produced pea size hail.

Any remaining showers will continue to push off to the east.  Ending west to east as we move through the day.

Temperatures may actually peak this morning in many areas.  Falling as we move through the day.

This is the beginning of what will be several weeks of cold temperatures.  Mingled with on and off precipitation chances.

A few snow flurries are possible over the coming days.  Especially over our northern counties and northeastern counties.

At this time, we don’t expect the snow to be heavy enough to be impactful.  I can’t completely rule out a dusting of snow in some areas.  That would be near the I64 corridor in southern Illinois and perhaps into the Evansville area.

It will be cold over the coming days.  See the daily forecast above.  Some nights will dip into the teens and lower twenties.  Wind chill values will be even colder.

Potential Winter Weather Event

I continue to track a potential winter storm this weekend.

 

At this time, the primary time frame of concern appears to be Sunday into Monday.  If you have travel plans this weekend into early next week, then you will want to monitor updated forecasts.  Winter weather is possible somewhere in the Missouri and Ohio Valleys.  Perhaps even in the Tennessee Valley.

A lower chance of precipitation Saturday night.  The system continues to slow by several hours.

Here is the latest graphic from the Weather Prediction Center/NOAA

What is the probability of exceeding 0.25″ of melted frozen precipitation?  They have now added dark green.  Yesterday, it was light green.  That means probabilities are increasing for wintry precipitation in the green zone.

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Data does show quite a bit of precipitation with this event.  It it not moisture starved.

Double click images to enlarge them.  Here are the anticipated totals for the weekend event.

Keep in mind, this is melted totals.  One inch of rain equals ten inches of snow.

Some of this will be freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain.  A wide range of precipitation types.

I am showing you the amounts so that you can see there is plenty of moisture with the system.

It is important to remind you that this event is still five days away.  We won’t have a handle on the specifics until 24 to 72 hours before the storm arrives.

Typically, we have a better handle on it within 72 hours.  Then, we work out the final details the last 24 to 36 hours.  Even then, it can be tricky to get it right.

It is too early to know the storm track for that system.  The track of the area of low pressure will be key to who receives winter precipitation and who receives plan old rain.

It is too early to know if accumulating snow and ice will impact our region.

As of this morning, it does appear that chances  are increasing for an impactful winter storms in or near our region.  Significant amounts of freezing rain, sleet, and snow are being shown by the charts.  Rain, as well.

Most data even shows thunderstorms south and southeast of the area of low pressure.  That low will be key to what we experience.

Scroll down for the future-cast radars, as well.

Typically, snow occurs north of the area of low pressure.

So, if you want snow then you want the low to pass to our south.  See the future-cast radars below.  A wide range of ideas from model to model.

I will monitor trends in the guidance.

Let me show you just how much of a headache forecasting a winter storm can be.

It is still six days out.  Long time in what I call model-land.

The winter storm system has not even been sampled yet, by the models.  It is still out over the Pacific Ocean.

Once it moves  ashore, over the coming days, then models will begin to push towards a final solution in the guidance.

Here are all the different models and their idea for Sunday’s precipitation type.

What actually determines precipitation type?

Temperatures aloft determine what falls to the ground.  If there is a warm layer of air aloft, then it will melt the snowflake.  Once a snowflake melts, it can never become a snowflake again.  It will fall as freezing rain, sleet, or plain old rain.

Here is a slide showing you what determines precipitation type.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

The GFS American Model.  Monday 12 AM.

The EC European model.  Sunday afternoon.

The GDPS Canadian Model.  Monday 6 AM.

The UKMET model. Sunday afternoon.

The ICON model.  Sunday 12 pm.

Keep in mind that is just one snapshot of one hour of the storm system.

It will be moving along.

Wrap around snow is likely, as well.

That means you could have a wide variety of precipitation at your location.  Starting out as frozen and then turning to rain (for some).  Then, ending as a wintry mix or snow.

Again, it will depend on the track of the area of low pressure.

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Bitterly Cold Temperatures Are Likely Next Week 

Bitterly cold air will follow that system.  Just how cold will depend on whether we have snow or ice on the ground.

A snowpack would make it colder.  Perhaps quite a bit colder.

At times, wind chill values could dip below zero degrees.

Double click images to enlarge them.

I posted some info graphics at the top of the page.

Here is the GFS model.  It shows temperature anomalies.

The red colors equal above average temperatures.  The blue and purple/pink colors are below to well below average temperatures.

You can see several rounds of cold air in the charts.  Double click the animation to enlarge it.

The time stamp is in the middle.  This takes us out to January 16th.

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Now is the time prepare your home and property for bitterly cold air.  Perhaps pipe busting cold.  If you had problems in the past with your pipes freezing, then you could have problems with the cold air that is showing up in the forecast charts.

Good time to remind people not to use extension chords with space heaters.  Every year we have severe cold our region has house fires because of this.  Space heaters are linked to more than 25,000+ house fires every year, resulting in more than 300 deaths in the United States.

Besides being three feet from anything that can catch fire, you need to make sure your space heater is plugged into the wall outlet. Don’t use an extension cord or a power strip, even if it’s a heavy-duty one.

Extension cords and strips are not designed to handle the high electric current of a space heater. The heater is too powerful for them and can start a fire or melt them.

The extended period of cold temperatures will be harsh on farm animals (other animals, as well).

I will know more about the cold over the coming days.

If we have a snowpack, then temperatures in the single digits or colder will be possible.

Some charts show temperatures in the single digits even without snow on the ground.

This would make the fourth year in a row for a bitterly cold temperature event.

Let me show you some ensemble model data.

Ensembles are the same model but they run it over and over again with slightly different beginning variables.

The general idea is that ensembles do better at forecasting than looking at one model run.

These are high and low temperatures.

I chose three local cities.

Keep in mind, these are averages from all the ensembles.  Thus, it could be quite a bit colder than shown here.  I just wanted to give you an idea on the timing of the cold.

I chose Mount Vernon, IL.  Paducah, KY.  Poplar Bluff, MO.

You can see how cold the ensembles are showing.  The cold air will likely linger past these dates, as well.

You can see the dates from left to right.  You can see the top number is the ensemble model forecast high temperature.  The bottom number is the low temperatures.

Again, as mentioned above, it could be quite a bit colder than what is shown.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Mount Vernon, Illinois.

 

Paducah, Kentucky

 

Poplar Bluff, Missouri

 

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

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Here is the NAM model.

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Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

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EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.
Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

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Canadian model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

 

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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