December 31, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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The live severe weather blog has been activated. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE LIVE BLOG. I WILL KEEP IT UPDATED THROUGH TOMORROW.

My severe weather outlook will vary from location to location.

Remember, I forecast for Mt Vernon, Illinois, south into northwest Tennessee.

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48-hour forecast

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Friday. Friday night. Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A risk of severe weather (area-wide) will arrive Friday night. Confidence in the Friday event is still rather low. There are differences in the different guidance packages as to where the area of low pressure tracks.

There will also be a severe weather risk Saturday. A conditional risk. Saturday’s event will depend on how much precipitation lingers in the region during the morning hours. If there are numerous showers and thunderstorms, in the region, then that would lower the severe weather risk.

The track of the low will also be key to the severe weather risk Saturday. If the low tracks further south then our severe weather risk will be low.

The live severe weather blog has been activated. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE LIVE BLOG. I WILL KEEP IT UPDATED THROUGH TOMORROW.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Flash flooding and general flooding will be possible. Bands of heavy rain will develop late Friday into Saturday. Some locations could receive two to three inches of rain. There remain questions on the exact placement of the heaviest rain totals. It appears somewhere along the Ohio River southward stands the best chance of heavy rain.

The latest WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast shows some big totals.

Double click image to enlarge it.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Possible. Saturday night and Sunday/Sunday night.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Low risk. Monitor updates. Light snow showers and freezing drizzle may develop Saturday night into Sunday. Warm ground temperatures and wet ground conditions will make it difficult for snow to accumulate.

6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

December 31, 2021
The live severe weather blog has been activated. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE LIVE BLOG. I WILL KEEP IT UPDATED THROUGH TOMORROW.
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain likely late tonight. A few storms could be strong over our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time (coverage increases late tonight)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 56° to 62°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy rain could cause flooding. Monitor the risk of a few intense storms after midnight.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the radars.
Moonrise: 4:49 AM
Moonset: 2:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

January 1, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain likely. A few storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Throughout most of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 52° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 56° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: South at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Wind becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy rain could cause flooding. A few severe storms possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower or snow shower. Snow showers may mix with light freezing drizzle. Watch for black ice on bridges and overpasses. Much colder. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor for black ice on bridges and overpasses.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 4:49 AM
Moonset: 2:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

January 2, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of light freezing drizzle or a snow shower. Much colder. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° / SE MO 26° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 32° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Northwest and north at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty. Cold wind chill values.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some black ice early in the morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a slight chance of light snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 16° to 20° / SE MO 14° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 18° / South IL 16° to 22° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 18° to 22° / West KY 18° to 22° / NW TN 18° to 20°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:17 AM
Moonset: 4:42 PM
The phase of the moon: New

January 3, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: Becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° / SE MO 23° to 26° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 23° to 26° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 24° to 28° / NW TN 24° to 28°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:17 AM
Moonset: 5:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 4, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° / South IL 44° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 46°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:08 AM
Moonset: 7:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 5, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Low confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° / SE MO 46° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 52° / South IL 52° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of rain or snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 28° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:49 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through January 6th: There is a risk of severe thunderstorms area-wide Friday night into Saturday. A strong cold front will push across the region bringing a chance of storms. Confidence in severe weather occurring is low.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms could also keep instability down. That means a lower severe weather risk.

The risk will be somewhat higher over Kentucky and Tennessee. Mainly along and south of the track of the area of low pressure.

The live severe weather blog has been activated. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE LIVE BLOG. I WILL KEEP IT UPDATED THROUGH TOMORROW.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. A few showers today. Warm and breezy.
2. Flooding risk from heavy rain late Friday night into Saturday.
3. A few intense storms can’t be ruled out late Friday night into Saturday afternoon.
4. Bitterly cold Saturday night into Monday.
5. Light freezing drizzle and snow showers possible late Saturday night into Sunday. Little or no accumulation.
6. Wind chill values below 10 degrees possible late Saturday night and again Sunday night.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

Friday:

A mild day ahead of us. There will be some clouds and a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. The bulk of the region will remain dry through the daylight hours.

The bulk of the rain will arrive Friday night and Saturday.

The live severe weather blog has been activated. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE LIVE BLOG. I WILL KEEP IT UPDATED THROUGH TOMORROW.

Friday night into Sunday:

Flash flood/flood risk. A few thunderstorms could be intense or severe.

An active time-frame for weather. Monitor updates.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region Friday night. The heaviest rain will likely arrive after midnight. See the future-cast radars below.

Locally heavy rain will be a concern. Some locations will receive one to three inches of rain.

Needless to say, this is going to cause some drainage issues. A flood watch has been issued for most of the region. That simply means some flooding will be possible with this event. Avoid flooded roadways.

PWAT values will be near or above record high levels (once again). This seems to be a theme over the last few years. Plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture.

Animation of PWAT values. These are big numbers and reflect how much moisture this system will have to work with.

WPC/NOAA has placed our region in a marginal and slight risk (level one and two risk) for excessive rainfall Friday night and a marginal to moderate risk Saturday.

Friday night excessive rainfall outlook

Saturday excessive rainfall outlook. Green is the lowest risk zone. Red is the highest risk zone.

The red band is where the heaviest rain should occur. Some flooding will be possible in our region.

The next question is severe weather.

A highly conditional risk of severe weather. What does conditional mean? It means that all ingredients are going to have to come together just right in order for severe thunderstorms to develop. There remain questions about this and that equals a low confidence forecast.

Certainly dew points will be high for late December and early January. Dew points values will likely top 60 degrees over the southern half of the region Friday and perhaps Saturday.

Dew point is one ingredient when considering the risk of severe thunderstorms.

The NAM model has record high dew points across some of our counties. It is, however, an outlier. Most models show the higher dew points across our southern counties vs northern counties.

If the NAM is correct then the risk of severe weather will be higher.

Let’s set the NAM model aside, for now. I believe it is too far north.

The other model guidance shows at least some risk of severe weather from the Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line southward. This does make more sense based on most guidance packages.

The next question will be cloud cover and ongoing showers and thunderstorms. As many of you know, widespread clouds and precipitation can keep instability down. Keeping instability down will help lower the risk of severe thunderstorms.

There are certainly questions above whether severe weather will be an issue with this event.

Heavy rain is likely. That seems to be a certainty with this event.

If severe weather does develop then the primary concern will be damaging wind gusts and short-lived tornadoes.

I would encourage you to monitor updates concerning this event.

This is NOT another December 10th type event. Of course, if a tornado hits your location then that is your December 10th. I understand that.

Long-tracked violent tornadoes are not in the forecast.

Bitterly cold air will pour in behind this system.

Check out this animation of temperatures Saturday into Sunday.

Wind chill values will be even lower. Wind chill is what the temperature feels like to your skin and is important when forecasting frost bite conditions.

This is bundle up weather.

9 AM Sunday

3 PM Sunday

9 AM Monday

Rain may change to freezing drizzle and light snow showers Saturday night over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Little or no accumulation. Perhaps a dusting on elevated surfaces.

Watch for puddles that freeze Saturday night, as well. Watch bridges and overpasses.

Accumulating snow on the warm ground conditions could be difficult.

Confidence in snow accumulating is low. Confidence in there being some snow in the air is medium. Monitor updates.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.