Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

Long Range Video Update

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  Mild. A slight chance of late afternoon showers over mainly our northwest counties.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 59°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty over southeast MO.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars late in the day.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers likely.  A slight chance of thunderstorms.  Coverage of precipitation will be higher north vs south.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:   Numerous north.  Isolated far south.
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:17 AM
Moonset: 4:23 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Tuesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers.  Breezy.  Temperatures may actually fall during the day from west to east.  Colder air will be moving into the region.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the morning hours.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction:  West 10 to 25 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:08 AM
Moonset: 5:30 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:51 AM
Moonset: 6:40 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.   Mild temperatures to continue through Tuesday.  Then, temperatures turn colder.
   2.   Wet weather Monday night.  Especially over our northern counties.
   3.   Snow showers possible Thursday night.  Accumulation, if any, would be light.
   4.   I am watching a potential winter storm Saturday and Sunday.  Monitor updates.
   5.   I am watching for the risk of bitterly cold air next week and the week after.  Monitor updates concerning this subject.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone.

I hope you had a nice weekend.  It seemed to pass quickly!

We have a lot of weather to cover.

Most of today will be dry.  By late this afternoon a few showers will push into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

That rain will increase in coverage tonight.  Rain chances will be higher north vs south.  You can see that on this graphic

Rain probabilities for tonight.

Rain totals won’t be all that impressive with this system.  Ranging from a trace far south to perhaps 0.25″ north.

Double click on graphics and animations to enlarge them.

Anticipated rain totals for tonight’s fast moving system.

That system will push off to the east by tomorrow morning.

Gusty winds will be with us today into tomorrow.

Temperatures today will be well above average in the mid to upper 50s.

The gusty winds will make it feel colder tonight into tomorrow.

Colder air will slowly filter into the region over the coming 24 hours.

Tuesday’s highs will be near seasonal levels.  That equals highs in the 40s.

Dry cool conditions are likely Wednesday into Thursday afternoon.

Wednesday morning wind chills.  Brrr.  Double click on the image to enlarge it.

A fast moving clipper system will push across the region Thursday night.  This could bring a dusting or so of snow.  For now, it appears the higher chances of light snow will be across northern portions of southeast Missouri, northern portions of southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.

I will keep a close eye on it.   It only takes a little bit of snow to cause issues.

Dry conditions are likely Friday into Saturday morning.  Colder.

Potential Winter Weather Event

A winter weather event will develop Saturday afternoon into  Monday.  This will bring rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the region.

It is too early to know the storm track for that system.  The track of the area of low pressure will be key to who receives winter precipitation and who receives plan old rain.

It is too early to know if accumulating snow and ice will impact our region.

Typically, snow occurs north of the area of low pressure.

So, if you want snow then you want the low to pass to our south.  See the future-cast radars below.  A wide range of ideas from model to model.

I will monitor trends in the guidance.

Bitterly cold air will follow that system.  Just how cold will depend on whether we have snow or ice on the ground.

A snowpack would make it colder.  Quite a bit colder.

The ensembles are showing a high risk for bitterly cold air next week.

These are the EC model maps.  The squares show temperature anomalies.

The more squares that agree with each other, the higher the probability of the outcome.

The blue and green colors represent below average temperatures.

When every square shows the same outcome, then you know the chances of it happening are high.

January 7th temperature anomalies

January 9th temperature anomalies

January 13th temperature anomalies

Next week and the week after should have a couple of rounds of bitterly cold air.

Now is the time prepare your home and property for bitterly cold air.  Perhaps pipe busting cold.  If you had problems in the past with your pipes freezing, then you could have problems with the cold air that is showing up in the forecast charts.

It will be harsh on farm animals (other animals, as well).

I will know more about the cold over the coming days.

If we have a snowpack, then temperatures in the single digits or colder will be possible.

Some charts show temperatures in the single digits even without snow on the ground.

This would make the third year in a row for a bitterly cold temperature event.

Monitor updates over the coming days.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

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Here is the NAM model.

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Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is ice.  Blue is snow.  Green and yellow represent rain.

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EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.
Red is ice.  Blue is snow.  Green and yellow represent rain.

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Canadian model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is ice.  Blue is snow.  Green and yellow represent rain.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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