December 30, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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My severe weather outlook will vary from location to location.

Remember, I forecast for Mt Vernon, Illinois, south into northwest Tennessee.

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48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Friday. Friday night. Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A risk of severe weather (area-wide) will arrive Friday evening and night. Confidence in the Friday event is still rather low. There are differences in the different guidance packages as to where the area of low pressure tracks.

There will also be a risk Saturday. A conditional risk. Saturday’s event will depend on how much precipitation lingers in the region during the morning hours. If there are numerous showers and thunderstorms, in the region, then that would lower the severe weather risk.

Confidence in severe weather Friday and Saturday remains rather low.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Rain totals are trending higher. Flash flooding and general flooding will be possible. Bands of heavy rain will develop late Friday into Saturday. Some locations could top three or four inches of rain. There remain questions on the exact placement of the heaviest rain totals. It appears somewhere along the Ohio River southward stands the best chance of heavy rain. Monitor updates in case the system trends further north.

The latest WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast shows some big totals. Again, there are some questions about the exact placement of the heaviest rain totals. Monitor updates.

Double click image to enlarge it.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Possible. Saturday night and Sunday/Sunday night.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Possible. Monitor updates. Snow may develop Sunday into Sunday night. The latest data indicates some accumulation will be possible. Warm ground temperatures and wet ground conditions may make it difficult for snow to accumulate.

6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

December 30, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Morning fog will mix out by mid-morning. Some patchy drizzle.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered drizzle
Timing of the rain: Mostly before 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 64° / SE MO 56° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Cooler north vs south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 44° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 50° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:33 AM
Moonset: 1:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 31, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain likely. A few storms could be strong over our southern counties. Turning colder north.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 54° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy rain could cause flooding. Monitor the risk of a few intense storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the radars.
Moonrise: 4:49 AM
Moonset: 2:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

January 1, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain likely. A few storms could be severe. Temperatures will fall as a strong cold front pushes eastward.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Throughout most of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 52° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 56° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Wind becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy rain could cause flooding. A few severe storms possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower or snow shower. Snow showers may mix with light freezing over mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Watch for black ice if this does develop. Much colder. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 25° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 16° to 20° / South IL 18° to 24° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 24° / West KY 20° to 24° / NW TN 20° to 24°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor for black ice on bridges and overpasses.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 4:49 AM
Moonset: 2:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

January 2, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Snow showers possible. Much colder. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° / SE MO 26° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 32° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Northwest and north at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty. Cold wind chill values.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some black ice early in the morning. Monitor the chance of snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 16° to 20° / SE MO 14° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 18° / South IL 16° to 22° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 18° to 22° / West KY 18° to 22° / NW TN 18° to 20°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:17 AM
Moonset: 4:42 PM
The phase of the moon: New

January 3, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 38° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: Becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 28° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° / West KY 24° to 28° / NW TN 24° to 28°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:17 AM
Moonset: 5:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 4, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:08 AM
Moonset: 7:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 5, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Low confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of rain or snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:49 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through January 6th: There is a risk of severe thunderstorms area-wide Friday evening into Saturday. A strong cold front will push across the region bringing a chance of storms. Confidence in severe weather occurring is low. There are differing opinions as to where the primary center of low pressure will track and the associated warm front.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms could also keep instability down. That means a lower severe weather risk.

All in all, confidence in severe weather remains low.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Dry today and tonight.
2. Dry most of Friday with rain developing Friday night/Saturday.
3. Flash flooding from heavy rain.
4. A few intense storms can’t be ruled out.
5. Bitterly cold Saturday night into Monday.
6. Snow possible Sunday/Sunday night.
7. Wind chill values below 10 degrees possible late Saturday night and again Sunday night.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

A tornado siren test will be help in Mayfield today (Thursday). The test will be held at 12 PM. There are NO concerns today for severe thunderstorms or tornadoes. This will be a test.

Today and tonight:

Dry conditions. Some morning dense fog. Use care if driving. It will be cool today, but still above seasonal averages.

Friday:

Most of Friday may end up dry with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances late Friday afternoon or evening.

It will be mild and breezy Friday with wind gusts above 30 mph possible across the region.

Friday wind gust map. Winds will begin to pick up in the morning and peak during the evening/overnight hours.

Friday night into Sunday:

Flash flood/flood risk. A conditional severe weather risk.

A very active time-frame for weather. Monitor updates moving forward.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region Friday evening and night.

Locally heavy rain will be a concern. Some locations will receive one to three inches of rain. There are some models that show pockets of three to four inches of rain. Either way, too much rain in a short amount of time.

Needless to say, this is going to cause some drainage issues. Expect a flood or flash flood watch to be issued for some of my forecast counties. The most likely location for that watch will be near the Ohio River southward.

The National Weather Service wants to see today’s data before issuing the watch outline.

The NAM model guidance is showing the heaviest rain band across our central and northern counties. That, for now, is an outlier and is being dismissed.

With that said, there remain questions about the exact track of the area of low pressure. If the low does track further north then the risk of heavy rain would also shift northward. Monitor updates and let’s see what the National Weather Service does.

PWAT values will be near or above record high levels (once again). This seems to be a theme over the last few years. Plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture.

Animation of PWAT values. These are big numbers and reflect how much moisture this system will have to work with.

NOAA has placed our region in a marginal and slight risk (level one and two risk) for excessive rainfall Friday night and again Saturday.

Friday night excessive rainfall outlook

Saturday excessive rainfall outlook.

The next question is severe weather.

A highly conditional risk of severe weather. What does conditional mean? It means that all ingredients are going to have to come together just right in order for severe thunderstorms to develop. There remain questions about this and that equals a low confidence forecast.

Certainly dew points will be high for late December and early January. Dew points values will likely top 60 degrees over the southern half of the region Friday and perhaps Saturday.

Dew point is one ingredient when considering the risk of severe thunderstorms.

The NAM model has record high dew points across some of our counties. It is, however, an outlier. Most models show the higher dew points across our southern counties vs norther counties.

If the NAM is correct then the risk of severe weather will be higher.

Let’s set the NAM model aside, for now.

The other model guidance shows at least some risk of severe weather from the Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line southward. This does make more sense based on most guidance packages.

The next question will be cloud cover and ongoing showers and thunderstorms. As many of you know, widespread clouds and precipitation can keep instability down. Keeping instability down will help lower the risk of severe thunderstorms.

There are certainly questions above whether severe weather will be an issue with this event.

Heavy rain is likely. That seems to be a certainty with this event.

If severe weather does develop then the primary concern will be damaging wind gusts and short-lived tornadoes.

I would encourage you to monitor updates concerning this event. Adjustments in the forecast remain a possibility.

This is NOT another December 10th type event. Of course, if a tornado hits your location then that is your December 10th. I understand that.

Long-tracked violent tornadoes are not in the forecast.

Bitterly cold air will pour in behind this system.

Check out this animation of temperatures Saturday into Sunday.

Wind chill values will be even lower. Wind chill is what the temperature feels like to your skin and is important when forecasting frost bite conditions.

This is bundle up weather.

9 AM Sunday

3 PM Sunday

9 AM Monday

Rain may change to freezing rain and snow Saturday night over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Little or no accumulation is anticipated. Perhaps a dusting on elevated surfaces.

Watch for puddles that freeze Saturday night, as well. Watch bridges and overpasses.

Snow may develop Sunday/Sunday night area-wide. A secondary system may develop. That would bring snow to our region.

Accumulating snow on the warm ground conditions could be difficult. If the snow were to fall heavy enough then some accumulation would be possible.

Confidence in snow accumulating is low. Confidence in there being some snow in the air is medium. Monitor updates.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.