Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

December 3rd through December 9th.

Current risk:  NONE

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments:    

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  NO.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.     

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.    

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  POSSIBLE.  Some counties will fall below twenty degrees tonight and tomorrow night.

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  POSSIBLE.  Late tonight and tomorrow morning over the northern portions of southeast Missouri and the northern half of southern Illinois.  Wind chill values may briefly drop below ten degrees.

7.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  LOW RISK/MONITOR.   There is a low risk of a wintry mix tonight, tomorrow night, Friday morning, and on Sunday night.  For the time being, these appear to be low chances with little or no impact.  Monitor updates.  If anything changes, then I will send out an alert.

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Here is the short-range concern meter.

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Here is the extended concern meter.

No severe weather concerns.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast

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This afternoon

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Forecast discussion

•   Cold weather to continue into next week.
•   Several fast-moving weak systems to monitor.  For now, the chance of a wintry mix remains low.  I am closely monitoring it.
•   If it appears that accumulating precipitation will develop, then I will send out an alert to the app.  For now, confidence is too low for that.

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We are waking up to chilly temperatures.

We still have quite a few clouds in the area.  This has prevented widespread freezing fog.  There is some patchy freezing fog.  If you are in a foggy area, then use a bit more care this morning.  The bulk of the fog reports have been across southeast Missouri and a portion of southwest Illinois.

It can be tricky to move clouds during the winter months.  We were supposed to have some sun yesterday.  That did not happen and it was several degrees colder because of it.

We will see how today goes.  It is possible the clouds hold tight across the area or portions of the area.  Hopefully, we do get some sun.  If that happens then some reporting stations will pop into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

A fast-moving system will move to our north and south tonight.  This will bring a slight chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the area.

At this time, we don’t expect enough precipitation to cause problems.   I will carefully monitor it.  If anything changes, then I will send out an alert.

Chances are currently around 10% to 20%.

Here are the chances from 6 PM tonight until 6 AM Thursday morning.

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Here are the chances from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM Friday

As you can see, the chances are a little bit higher over our far southern counties tomorrow night.  I will monitor it.

For most of the area, the chances are 10% to 20%.  Southern counties, however, might pop into the 30% to 40% range.  I will be monitoring it.

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6 AM Friday to 6 PM Friday

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It would be cold enough for this to be freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  There is a warm layer of air aloft.  That is why, even though it will be well below freezing, there could be freezing rain.  That warm layer would melt the snowflakes, turning them into water droplets.  Those droplets would then freeze upon contact with surfaces.

Again, for now, I am not forecasting enough precipitation for there to be impacts.  I will closely monitor today’s data, especially for Thursday night.

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Saturday through Tuesday

Saturday through Tuesday will remain cold.  Below-average temperatures.

Another fast-moving system will push across the region on Sunday and Monday.  Perhaps centered on Sunday night.

At this time, one model (the GFS) shows this producing accumulating snow.  The rest of the data, at this time, does not support that.

For now, we will go with low-end wintry mix chances centered on Sunday night.  I will monitor the trends in the guidance over the next few days.  If it appears that accumulating precipitation will be a concern, then I will send out a winter weather alert to the app.

Sunday 6 AM to Sunday 6 PM precipitation chances

6 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC model 

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink, red, and purple are freezing rain and sleet.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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