December 29, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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My severe weather outlook will vary from location to location.

Remember, I forecast for Mt Vernon, Illinois, south into northwest Tennessee.

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48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today. Tonight. Friday. Friday night. Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could become severe over the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee today and this evening. Another risk of severe weather (area-wide) will arrive Friday. Confidence in the Friday event is still rather low. There are differences in the different guidance packages as to where the area of low pressure tracks.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Some nuisance flooding will be possible. Streams will rise, creeks, small rivers, ditches may flood, and field flooding. I can’t rule out some area flood warnings.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Possible. Perhaps Saturday night and Sunday/Sunday night.

5. Is measurable snow in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates. Some snow showers are possible Saturday night and Sunday but ground temperatures will be warm. I can’t rule out some light dusting on elevated surfaces (if snow showers develop).

5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? Unlikely. Monitor. Some snow showers can’t be ruled out Saturday night and Sunday.

December 29, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. A wide range of temperatures across the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 50° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 54° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: East at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 68° Wide range.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms. Cooler north vs south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 36° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 48° to 50°
Winds will be from the: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 2:19 AM
Moonset: 1:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 30, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Becoming partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 64° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 60° to 65° / NW TN 60° to 65°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Cooler north vs south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 44° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 50° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:33 AM
Moonset: 1:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 31, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 65° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Winds will be from the: South at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of a few intense storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Turning colder north.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 42° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 43° to 46° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° / West KY 52° to 56° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Monitor the risk of a few intense storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 4:49 AM
Moonset: 2:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

January 1, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Temperatures may fall as a strong cold front pushes eastward.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Highest chances will be before 12 pm. Then, scattered after 12 pm.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Wind becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower or snow shower. Much colder. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 25° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 16° to 20° / South IL 18° to 24° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 24° / West KY 20° to 24° / NW TN 20° to 24°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 14°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor for black ice on bridges and overpasses.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 4:49 AM
Moonset: 2:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

January 2, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Snow showers possible. Much colder. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Northwest and north at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty. Cold wind chill values.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some black ice early in the morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Clearing. Cold. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Flurries, at best.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 15° to 20° / SE MO 16° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 16° to 18° / South IL 18° to 22° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 18° to 22° / West KY 18° to 22° / NW TN 18° to 22°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:17 AM
Moonset: 4:42 PM
The phase of the moon: New

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through January 5th: A few storms could be intense across the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee today and tonight. The primary concern will be high winds.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms area-wide Friday/Friday night. A strong cold front will push across the region bringing a chance of storms. Confidence in severe weather occurring is low. There are differing opinions as to where the primary center of low pressure will track and the associated warm front.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Changeable weather conditions. Monitor updates.
2. Rain today and tonight. It won’t rain all day.
3. Monitoring thunderstorms today/tonight over the Bootheel of Missouri and western Tennessee.
4. Locally heavy rain Friday/Friday night into Saturday morning.
5. Monitoring thunderstorm chances Friday/Friday night.
6. Bitterly cold behind the cold front Saturday night into Sunday night.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

A complex weather pattern over the coming days.

First, see the written forecast for the region (top of page). You can see the wide-range of temperatures over the next few days.

This temperature spread is because of a stalled front located across our region.

It will be cooler north of the front vs south.

For example, here are today’s high temperature forecast numbers.

Cooler north. Warmer south.

There will be showers and thunderstorms developing today across southern Missouri and Arkansas. The bulk of the rain, in our local area, will be during the afternoon hours. Scattered showers are possible at any given time. The bulk will be later today.

The Hrrr model shows the rain today. It is possible some locations don’t receive much in the way of rainfall.

Rain totals today will likely range from 0.1 to 0.4″. Locally higher totals are possible. That is especially true where thunderstorms occur.

Here is the WPC rainfall forecast for today and tonight.

Notice some locations don’t receive much in the way of measurable rainfall.

The rain will end tonight.

Thursday will be dry. Breezy, at times. Above average temperatures, once again.

The weather becomes more active as we move into Friday and Saturday.

A warm front will lift north into the region Friday and Friday night.

The position of this warm front will be key to where severe weather will or won’t occur.

The further north the warm front moves, the greater the risk of severe weather in our local region.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region in a marginal and slight risk of severe thunderstorms. That is a level one and two risk. The risk is a five point scale. Five being the highest.

There may be adjustments in this. Monitor updates.

Light green are general thunderstorms. Dark green is the marginal risk. Yellow is the slight risk.

The primary concern will be hail and high winds. A short-lived tornado will also be possible.

Again, monitor updates because I suspect there will be adjustments to this.

There are significant questions about where the area of low pressure will track.

The further north the low track the higher our risk of severe thunderstorms.

On the other hand, if the low tracks to our south then the risk of severe weather will be lower.

It is still too early to know the eventual track. Monitor updates.

Locally heavy rain will also be possible Friday into Saturday. Rain totals of one to two inches are likely across the region. Locally higher if thunderstorms train over the same areas.

The WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast shows that well.

The WPC has placed us in a risk of flash flooding today/tonight and again Friday/Friday night.

Today’s risk clips my forecast area. Green is a low level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk.

And Friday’s risk zone.

A powerful cold front will sweep across our region during this time period.

You can see the rapid temperature drop in this animation.

The colder air will arrive Saturday and Saturday night.

Let’s look at the wind chill map. Wind chill is what the temperature feels like on the human body. Wind chill is what can cause frost bite (as well as cold temperatures in general).

Sunday 9 AM wind chill values

Sunday 9 PM wind chill values

Monday 9 am wind chill values

A few snow showers are possible Saturday night into Sunday. Accumulation, if any, would be confined to elevated surfaces.

We should watch for black ice Saturday night/Sunday morning. Black ice forms when moisture is left on roadways after a rain event. If the wind can dry the surfaces then black ice won’t form.

Something to monitor moving forward.

No significant snow or ice storms in the current charts.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.