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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours.
The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. A wintry mix will be possible Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The area of concern is mainly across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Kentucky counties along the Ohio River, as well. Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible. Ice accumulation of less than 0.10″ and little or no snow accumulation is anticipated. This may cause elevated surfaces to be icy. There is a small risk of freezing rain Thursday night over northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois before changing to all rain. No accumulation.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Thursday night and Friday.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor updates. I am watching Thursday night into Friday. A few strong storms can’t be ruled out.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. There will be locally heavy rain Wednesday into Friday. I can’t rule out some sharp rises in streams. Monitor.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Unlikely.
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December 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy. Rain chances increasing from west to east. Temperatures falling late in the day over northern portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 48° north to 58° far south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast becoming south southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: There may be quite a bit of dry air moving in from the north. If that happens then there won’t hardly be any wintry precipitation. Keep that in mind. Cloudy. Rain likely. Locally heavy rain. Rain may mix with or change to freezing rain, sleet, and snow over southeast Missouri and portions of southern Illinois late at night. Areas along the Ohio River in Kentucky may also experience a brief period of wintry mix. Ice accumulation of less than 0.10″ and little or no snow accumulation is anticipated.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° SE MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 35° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Where temperatures fall below freezing there could be some ice on elevated surfaces.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 5:21 PM
Moonset: 7:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. Breezy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain. Changing to all rain. The chance of frozen precipitation will be greatest over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Perhaps along the Ohio River, as well. Rain chances will be highest before noon and then again late in the day. There will be some dry periods.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the chance of a wintry mix early in the day over Missouri and Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 38° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 8:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly the first half of the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 55° to 62° NW TN 58° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East wind 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the day. Ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 30° to 35° South IL 30° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 15 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:27 PM
Moonset: 9:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a light rain or snow shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a light rain or snow shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 28° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A few wet roadways. I will monitor the temperatures in case we do have some light precipitation.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:33 PM
Moonset: 9:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Some morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 26° to 32° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:40 PM
Moonset: 10:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 52° NW TN 46° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 38° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:47 PM
Moonset: 11:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 42° to 46° South IL 42° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 46° West KY 42° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 38° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:55 PM
Moonset: 11:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
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Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through January 3rd: A few storms could be intense Thursday night into Friday. Monitor updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
There is a chance of locally heavy rain Wednesday into Friday.
There is a chance of a wintry mix late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Perhaps along the Ohio River, as well.
A few intense storms are possible Thursday night and Friday.
Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Showers late Tuesday night with increasing coverage Wednesday.
- Locally heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday night.
- Some thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
- A chance of a wintry mix late Wednesday night into Thursday AM
Tonight through Wednesday
Rain will push into the region late tonight and especially on Wednesday.
You can expect the rain to push west to east and cover most of our local area before noon.
Some locally heavy downpours will be possible. This is more of a steady rain event than anything (through Wednesday afternoon).
A strong cold front will then push across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will result in falling temperatures.
Highs over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will likely occur during the first half of the day. Then, slowly falling temperatures the second half of the day.
Wednesday night into Friday
There may be quite a bit of dry air moving in from the north. If that happens then there won’t hardly be any wintry precipitation. Keep that in mind.
Rain will continue into Wednesday night over most of the area. With time, it will shift further south. As a matter of fact, the rain may come to an end over much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois as drier air pushes in from the north.
This will occur as temperatures all below freezing. Drier air will also be pushing southward across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
There should be some overrunning precipitation behind the cold front.
That means a wintry mix of mainly sleet and freezing rain may develop over a sliver of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Patchy wintry mix will be possible over western Kentucky, as well.
The main question is how much precipitation will fall. This appears to be a light event. Ice accumulating may occur on elevated surfaces. Roads may not have as many issues since it has been warm the last few days.
Bridges, overpasses, decks, power lines, and trees will have ice. At this time, ice accumulation of 0.01″ to 0.10″ is the going forecast. A dusting of snow. Again, mainly over Missouri and Illinois. Chances decrease as you move further south and east.
There is the possibility that the drier air wins out. If that happens then there will not be much in the way of accumulating wintry mix.
Either way, for now this appears to be a small winter event mainly across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Nipping at Kentucky.
The front will hang up over the Tennessee Valley and will push back northward as a warm front Thursday and Thursday night.
This will occur as a deepening area of low pressure moves out of Texas and Louisiana and moves almost due north into the Missouri Valley.
That means more rain Thursday and Thursday night. Locally heavy rain is likely.
This will continue into Friday morning. The cold front should pass through the area by Friday afternoon.
Thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector. As a matter of fact, I will be keeping an eye on western Kentucky and western Tennessee in case a few of the thunderstorms become severe.
Monitor updates Thursday evening into the first half of Friday.
Notice on the EC model how temperatures warm beneath that warm front Thursday night and Friday. A surge of warmer temperatures.
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Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. When monitoring for severe thunderstorms I like to watch for upper 50s into the 60s. Upper 50s usually will suffice during the winter months.
The EC model is a bit more aggressive in bringing these higher dew points into our local area. Some of the other models are not showing quite as much moisture.
Monitor updates.
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The system will push off to our north and northeast Friday afternoon and evening. That means this is a rain event for our region. A snowstorm will occur well to our north and northwest.
Seems we can’t find much snow in our local forecast. Thus far, at least.
Rainfall totals of one to two inches are likely across the region between now and Friday. Local amounts may exceed two inches. Especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
A few showers may remain into Friday.
Dry weather is forecast Friday night into Sunday.
A fast moving weak system will need to be monitored. I may have to add a mention of light rain or a mix Saturday night. For now, this does not appear to be a big deal.
Here is where a little bit of sleet and freezing rain may occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Again, this is a light event and mainly on elevated surfaces.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers January 6th through January 12th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 24 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers January 12th through January 25th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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