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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Missouri and Illinois
Any accumulation would be light and patchy. Mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. A dusting to an inch or two on mainly grassy surfaces and elevated surfaces. Let’s keep an eye on temperatures. Remember, bridges and overpasses can freeze quickly once temperatures drop below 32 degrees.
Any issues with this event will be limited and we are not forecasting an impactful event. Meaning widespread travel impacts.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Possible. Rain and snow showers are possible this week. During the overnight hours, temperatures may dip below freezing, that could lead to light snow accumulation. Monitor updates in case this upper level low brings some surprises. That is not uncommon with these type of systems. The primary concern will be icy bridges and overpasses. See the daily forecast below for details on when and where.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
Thursday: 3. Very low risk.
Thursday night: 3. Very low risk.
Friday: 3. Very low risk.
Friday night: 3. Very low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A secondary surge of moisture will bring a rain to snow transition late today into Friday. Warm enough surface temperatures will keep snow accumulations limited to grassy and other cooler surfaces. Precipitation amounts of a quarter inch up to a half inch along Interstate 64 in Southern Illinois are possible. Dry weather returns this weekend, continuing into early next week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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- Rain and snow showers.
- Some light accumulation possible on mainly grassy and elevated surfaces.
- Chilly temperatures into next week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Forecast Discussion
Confidence in the overall forecast? Medium.
What? Scattered showers and snow showers. Sleet may also mix in.
When? Today through Friday evening. Peak precipitation coverage will be late tonight into Friday.
Where? Area-wide.
Snow totals? Many areas will receive no snow accumulation. Depending on the intensity and timing of the snow band late tonight and tomorrow morning, some locations could pick up a solid dusting to an inch or two of snow.
Impacts? Minimal impacts are anticipated from this event. I encourage you to monitor air temperatures late at night and during the morning hours. If they dip below freezing then be careful on bridges, overpasses, decks, and porches. Elevated surfaces could briefly freeze. Road temperatures are fairly warm. This will help prevent impacts. The road department, in some areas, will be salting, as well.
Well, our sloppy weather will continue today into tomorrow evening. On and off rain showers will dot the radar. There will also be snow and sleet showers mixed in.
We did have rain and snow yesterday and last night. Sleet was also mixed in from time to time. There was a brief dusting in some areas. Mostly across Missouri and Illinois. Nothing to write home about. Just a reminder that it is winter.
It is going to be chilly into the weekend and early next week. The coldest night appears to be Monday night when lower 20s are possible.
Accumulation of snow will be difficult to come by because of wet ground conditions, warm ground conditions, and fairly light precipitation rates.
There will be pockets of slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces. Elevated surfaces, as well. That would most likely occur during the overnight hours and early morning hours when temperatures are colder.
As always, watch bridges and overpasses. They freeze before everything else.
Precipitation today will be scattered. We will have increasing coverage again tonight and tomorrow as a lobe of energy pivots into the region from the north.
This could produce some pockets of heavier precipitation. This would enhance the chance for a brief dusting to an inch/two of snow. That would occur tonight and tomorrow.
All in all, this is a light precipitation event. Watch elevated surfaces like decks, porches, and bridges/overpasses.
Rain totals will range from a trace to 0.25″ Not much. Not enough to break our drought.
Dry conditions are likely late Friday night into at least Tuesday.
I have been watching a weak fast moving southern system Sunday night and Monday. It now appears that will track too far south to impact our region. If it were to shift northward, then we would have to worry about snow and sleet Sunday night/Monday morning.
The overnight GFS actually did bring rain or a rain snow mix into the region Monday. It is the outlier, for now. I will watch the data today.
This is the GFS model. Late Sunday night/Monday morning. You can see it has the southern system nipping the area.
For now, however, I don’t have any concerns.
The systems next week have basically disappeared from the data. At least in our area. They have trended farther south and east.
I will continue to monitor.
Models show another system around January 8th to 11th, but that is just too far out.
Models don’t do well past day five or six during a fast jet stream pattern. They just can’t be trusted. But hey, they did show 40 inches of snow for St Louis around January 10th. I think we can safely assume that is fantasy! But, as always, I will keep watching.
Have a great day!
For now, however, I don’t have any concerns.
The systems next week have basically disappeared from the data. At least in our area. They have trended farther south and east.
I will continue to monitor.
Models show another system around January 8th to 11th, but that is just too far out.
Models don’t do well past day five or six during a fast jet stream pattern. They just can’t be trusted. But hey, they did show 40 inches of snow for St Louis around January 10th. I think we can safely assume that is fantasy! But, as always, I will keep watching.
Have a great day!
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99 Our new Zoom radar with storm chases . .
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College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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