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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours.
The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.
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Monday to Monday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Wednesday night into Friday. Rain could mix with or change to freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Confidence in accumulating snow is currently low. The most likely time frame would be late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Warmer air then pushes northward Thursday changing everything to rain.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated lightning Wednesday into Thursday night.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time, but monitor updates. I am watching Thursday afternoon and night. A few strong storms can’t be ruled out. This will depend on the track of the area of low pressure.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. There will be locally heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday night. I can’t rule out some sharp rises in streams. Monitor.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Unlikely.
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December 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 26° West KY 24° to 26° NW TN 26° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 16° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:38 PM
Moonset: 5:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds from southwest to northeast.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph. Wind becoming east/southeast.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of late night showers over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° SE MO 34° to 36° South IL 34° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 39° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast becoming south southeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the area. A stray shower after midnight over southeast Missouri
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:26 PM
Moonset: 6:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy. Rain chances increasing from west to east. Coverage will be greater over Missouri and Illinois. Temperatures falling late in the day over northern portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° SE MO 46° to 54° South IL 46° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast becoming south southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous over Missouri and Illinois. Increasing coverage through the day west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. Locally heavy rain. A chance of thunderstorms. Rain may mix with or change to freezing rain, sleet, and snow over southeast Missouri and portions of southern Illinois late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° SE MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the chance of snow and ice (mainly MO/IL). Icy roads where temperatures fall into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. Ice on elevated surfaces will be possible in those areas, as well. Mainly Missouri/Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 5:21 PM
Moonset: 7:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. Breezy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain. Changing to all rain. The chance of frozen precipitation will be greatest over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° SE MO 36° to 40° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the chance of a wintry mix.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 38° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 8:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° SE MO 26° to 32° South IL 26° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 30° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: West 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:27 PM
Moonset: 9:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 25° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:33 PM
Moonset: 9:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 26° to 32° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:40 PM
Moonset: 10:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 38° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:47 PM
Moonset: 11:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 42° to 46° South IL 42° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 46° West KY 42° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 38° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:55 PM
Moonset: 11:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through December 31st: I will be monitoring a storm system that pushes northward from the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday into Thursday night. For now, I have a few storms in the forecast. Monitor updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
There is a chance of locally heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday.
There is a chance of a wintry mix late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. That would then change to rain Thursday late morning into the evening hours.
Monitor updates moving forward.
Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Showers late Tuesday night with increasing coverage Wednesday.
- Locally heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday night.
- Some thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
- A chance of a wintry mix late Wednesday night into Thursday AM and perhaps late Thursday night.
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Tonight through Wednesday
A quiet night is anticipated. No weather concerns.
We will see an increase in clouds Tuesday and Tuesday night.
At this time, I have Tuesday dry and perhaps Tuesday night. I can’t completely rule out a stray shower late Tuesday night over southeast Missouri.
Rain chances will ramp up Wednesday into Wednesday night.
This will be in response to an area of low pressure that will push off to our west and north. That keeps us on the warm side of the cyclone.
That means rain. There is not a lot of instability Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thus, the chance of lightning will be low. Perhaps not zero.
Widespread rain will blanket the region by Wednesday afternoon and night.
We will warm up a tad Wednesday. Ahead of the system on southerly winds. Expect highs mostly in the 50s.
Wednesday night into Friday
A complex weather pattern develops late Wednesday night into Friday. This will be in response to a second area of low pressure that will develop over Texas and then move north/northeast into the Gulf of Mexico states.
This system is forecast to move almost due north Thursday and Thursday night. That means we will remain more on the warm side than cold.
With that said, it will be cold enough late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning for the possibility of a freezing rain, sleet, and snow mix across at least southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Perhaps into western Kentucky, although conidence in that happening is currently rather low.
I can’t rule out some accumulation of freezing rain over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Perhaps in the 0.05″ to 0.15″ range.
This is HIGHLY conditional on temperatures. There remain questions about how low temperatures will fall Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
This system has not been fully sampled by the models. Thus, confidence won’t increase until tomorrow’s data becomes available.
It does appear that freezing rain and sleet would be more likely than snow.
Otherwise, widespread rain will develop Thursday into Thursday night from south to north.
Locally heavy rain is likely. I am monitoring the chance of severe thunderstorms, as well.
Rain totals between Wednesday and Friday will range from 1.50″ to 2.50″ with pockets of greater than 2.50″ likely.
The heaviest rain will likely fall across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
There could be some water issues. Mainly sharp rises on area streams.
Monitor updates moving forward.
Here is the primary area of concern. It is too early to say just how much ice might accumulate. For now, totals over most of our area will be small.
I will need to watch the Missouri Ozarks northward.
As far as ice probabilities.
Here is what the WPC is showing. Again, the highest risk of ice will be across the Missouri Ozarks. Then, tapering chances across the rest of the area. This is mainly a Missouri/Illinois threat.
What is the chance of 0.10″ or greater of freezing rain?
What is the chance of 0.25″ or greater of freezing rain?
What is the chance of 0.50″ or greater of freezing rain?
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 29th through January 4th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers January 5th through January 11th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 24 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers January 12th through January 25th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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