Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible tonight through Saturday evening.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. A few of the thunderstorms Saturday PM/night could be severe with high winds. The tornado risk is low. The primary concern will be the Bootheel of MO into KY/TN.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOCALIZED ISSUES. Locally heavy rain tonight into the weekend. This could cause commonly flooded roadways to have issues. Ditch and stream flooding. Nuisance flooding.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO .
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Fire weather risk level.
Thursday: 2. Very low risk.
Thursday night: 2. Very low risk.
Friday: 2. Very low risk.
Friday night: 3. Very low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A series of disturbances will keep intermittent periods of rain and widespread cloud cover in the forecast through the end of the week. This will result in wet fuels, low mixing heights, and elevated RH values each day. The region will dry out a bit Sunday into Monday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered drizzle and light showers. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. A thunderstorm is possible. Mild. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 45° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. A bit gustier over the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Patch dense fog. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:10 AM
Moonset: 1:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. A thunderstorm is possible. Mild for late December. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mild for late December.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40% to 50%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40% to 50%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40% to 50%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:12 AM
Moonset: 1:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. A thunderstorm is possible. Mild for late December. Patchy fog possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. A thunderstorm is possible. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Higher chances before 12 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40 to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:16 AM
Moonset: 2:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a few showers. Especially over our eastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40 to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:18 AM
Moonset: 3:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 6:18 AM
Moonset: 3:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Mild temperatures for late December. This will continue through at least Monday.
- Damp. Wet weather.
- Thunderstorms are possible into Saturday. At this time, severe weather appears unlikely, but I am monitoring it.
- Watching colder air the first two weeks of January. Mingled with warm shots. We will have to monitor the trends on how far south the cold extends. Too early to know if snow or ice will be an issue. Monitor updates.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone.
An active pattern will continue into next week.
Check out these temperature anomaly maps into early next week.
The red colors represent above normal temperatures.
Normal highs for this time of the year are in the 40s. Normal lows are in the 20s.
These numbers represent how many degrees above average temperatures will be.
Double click on the image to enlarge it.
Friday anomalies.
Saturday anomalies.
Sunday anomalies.
Monday anomalies.
Tuesday (somewhat cooler by Tuesday and Wednesday).
We will have several rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the coming days.
Today will be mild for late December. Clouds will linger. Patchy drizzle and light showers will dot the radars, as well.
Another system will pull into the region tonight. Moving southwest to northeast. This system will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms.
At this time, it appears any severe weather concerns will remain in Arkansas. As always, I will monitor it.
Some moderate rain will be possible tonight into tomorrow.
Another system arrives Friday night into Saturday night. This system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some moderate rain will be possible.
The risk of severe weather will draw closer to our region Friday night and Saturday. For now, however, I do not have severe weather in our forecast. Some lightning possible.
I will monitor trends. I can not completely rule out a marginal risk of severe weather Friday night/Saturday across the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee. For now, however, the risk appears minimal.
Rainfall totals over the next three days will range from one to two inches. Locally heavier totals can’t be ruled out.
Double click images to enlarge them.
Here are the expected rainfall totals through Sunday morning. Totals will vary, of course. Take the general idea from this graphic.
Scattered showers will be possible Sunday into Tuesday, as well.
Temperatures will remain above average into a portion of next week.
Somewhat cooler (more seasonal) air will arrive Tuesday into Thursday. For now, that does not appear to be anything significant. Perhaps knocking us back down to what one would expect in late December.
I continue to watch for the potential of colder air around January 3rd and another stronger shot around January 7th to 10th.
For now, confidence in the magnitude of the cold air remains low. Confidence in snow and ice, remains low.
I am monitoring trends. That is past day seven, so confidence is always going to be lower when it comes to the finer details.
It does appears we will have some cold shots in January.
Models are all over the place.
Check out the difference between the GFS and EC model temperatures for around the 7th to 9th of January.
One has bitterly cold air in our region. The other is mild.
This is why I tell you not to trust models past day five or six. This is why I tell you to not trust people who post wild maps weeks out into the future.
GFS model temperatures for January 8th. Double click on images to enlarge them.
EC model temperatures for January 8th.
Ensembles are mixed.
The GFS ensembles, for that time period, are colder.
These maps show temperature anomalies. The blue and green colors are colder than normal. Orange and red are warmer than average.
Again, the more squares that agree, the higher the confidence in the final outcome.
The EC ensembles are mixed. Some frames show the cold. Others are mild.
Again, the more squares that agree, the higher the confidence in the final outcome.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
The Hrrr model
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
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Here is the NAM model.
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Let’s look farther out. The Monday and Wednesday systems.
GFS model
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
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EC model
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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