Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Looking for a holiday gift for a loved one?

.

Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

48-hour forecast Graphics

.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

.

Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers likely.  Patchy drizzle and fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~  70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~  48° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction:  East southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
.

Tuesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. Showers likely.  Patchy drizzle and fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation:   Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast  at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:11 AM
Moonset: 12:23 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~  60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous during the morning.  Scattered during the afternoon.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.  Higher chances during the AM hours.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~  48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~  50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction:  East southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
.

Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly during the evening.  Lower chances late at night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:16 AM
Moonset: 12:53 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Thursday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~  30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  Higher chances in the PM hours.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction:  East southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
.

Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers likely.  A thunderstorm is possible.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 45° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 45° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:10 AM
Moonset: 1:21 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers likely.  A thunderstorm is possible.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~  60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
.

Friday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers likely.  A thunderstorm is possible.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40% to 50%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40% to 50%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40% to 50%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~  48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:12 AM
Moonset: 1:54 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.

We also have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you if your home is inside the warning polygon. If you are outside the polygon it will not disturb you.

More information on WeatherCall (see video below)

.
.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.

.

Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.   Above average temperatures into next week.  Periods of well above average temperatures (20+ degrees above average)
   2.   Damp.  Wet.  Unsettled.
   3.   A few non-severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Saturday.
   4.   Watching colder air the first two weeks of January.  Mingled with warm shots.  We will have to monitor the trends on how far south the cold extends.  Too early to know if snow or ice will be an issue.  Monitor updates.

.
Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Merry Christmas, everyone.  Santa will need his umbrella tonight!

We are waking up to clouds and showers.  Widespread showers in the region.

Here is what radar looked like at 7 am.  See the live local radar links farther down in this blog post.

We will be dealing with scattered showers, drizzle, clouds, and patchy fog into Wednesday night.

Rainfall totals won’t be excessive.  Here are the anticipated totals for the next 48 hours.

A bit more west.  Less east.

Double click on images to enlarge them.

No ice.  No snow.  No severe weather through next Tuesday.  That is the good news.

The bad news (for those tired of the rain) is that the pattern will remain active over the coming weeks.

We will have multiple rounds of showers and perhaps even some thunderstorms.

Locally moderate/heavy rain is possible with the Thursday night through Saturday system.

I am expecting a widespread one to two inches of rain.  I can’t rule out pockets of higher than two inches.

This could cause some nuisance flooding.  Commonly flooded roadways, ditches, and fields could have problems.

Temperatures will be well above average into next week.  At times, 20 to 30 degrees above seasonal averages!  That is quite impressive.

That will means some days with temperatures near 60 degrees.  Some nights with lows in the 50s!

Normal highs are around 48 degrees.  Normal lows are around 28 degrees.

Enjoy the mild air.

I am watching a couple of cold shots in early January.  One of those keeps showing up around January 3rd.  Another around January 8th.  Confidence this far out is low, of course.

Here is what the GFS model shows.

Check out these anomalies.

WELL above average temperatures Friday.

Well above average temperatures next Monday.

Then some colder air attempts to move in around the third of January.

Maybe a bigger shot of cold air around January 7th through 9th.  We will see.   The trend in the models is to show the cold air and then lose it or water it down (not as cold).

The EC model is bitterly cold as we move into the first and second week of January.

If the EC model is correct then we will likely have snow and/or ice.  Along with bitterly cold temperatures.

Whether we have snow or ice is still a question.  It is too far out for a real forecast.  I would be throwing darts if I told you it was going to snow!

I am watching trends in the guidance.

Data is mixed on just how cold it will be.  Data also shows several storm systems over the that time period.  That could mean rain and storms if the lows go to our north.  That could mean other types of precipitation if the cold air advances quicker.

Something to watch.

For now, let’s concentrate on the next seven days.  Milder than average.  Damp.  Patchy fog, at times.

Have a safe holiday.  Safe travels.

Merry Christmas

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

.

Here is the NAM model.

.

Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

.

EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

.

.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

.

..

.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

.

Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

.