Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of light rain.  Mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction:  South 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30° during the morning.  In the thirties and forties during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 12:14 AM
Moonset: 12:09 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~  70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~  48° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction:  East southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. Showers likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation:   Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast  at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:11 AM
Moonset: 12:23 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~  40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.  Higher chances during the AM hours.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~  48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~  50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction:  East southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:16 AM
Moonset: 12:53 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Thursday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  Higher chances in the PM hours.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction:  East southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 45° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 45° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:10 AM
Moonset: 1:21 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Friday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~  60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40% to 50%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40% to 50%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40% to 50%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40% to 50%
Southern Illinois ~ 40% to 50%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40% to 50%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40% to 50%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40% to 50%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40% to 50%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~  48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:12 AM
Moonset: 1:54 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.   Above average temperatures this week (overall)
   2.   Damp.  Wet.  Unsettled.
   3.   A few storms later this week.  For now, the severe risk appears small.  I am watching it closely.
   4.   Watching an early January cold snap  (or two).

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning, everyone!

Merry Christmas.  I hope you and your family have a nice week.

We have an unsettled week of weather ahead of us.  Multiple chances of rain.  Some thunderstorms, as well.

The good news is that I currently do not have severe weather in the forecast.

I am watching Thursday through Saturday for lightning, but it not appear that damaging wind or tornadoes will be a concern.

I know some of you have sent me social media posts showing us in a severe threat.  For now, I do not have severe weather in my forecast.

If that changes, then I will send out app messages.

Temperatures will remain above average through Sunday.  Some locations could hit 60 degrees this week!

Clouds will thicken today.  A few sprinkles will be possible over Missouri and Illinois.  Nothing of significance.  It will be cool, but temperatures should be mostly above average.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the 40s.  Average lows are in the 20s.

A few showers are possible tonight.  Patchy fog, as well.

Rain coverage will increase tomorrow, tomorrow night, and Wednesday.  Peak chances will be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

This first round of showers will not be a heavy rain event.

Here are the anticipated rainfall totals through Wednesday night.

Not much, but enough to be a nuisance.  Enough to wet the roadways.  Totals will be heavier the farther west you travel.  Lighter east.

Double click this image to enlarge it.

The pattern will remain unsettled Thursday through at least Saturday.   See the future-cast radars below.

Multiple systems will impact the region with showers and even a few thunderstorms.

Rainfall totals for the week.  This covers today through Sunday night.  Seven days.

There could be some nuisance flooding issues if these rainfall totals verify.  Mainly commonly flooded roadways, fields, and ditches.

 

What about winter cold?

I have been watching a couple of cold shots the first two weeks of January.

Models are all over the place with this idea.  They are not in agreement.  This raises questions, of course about timing and cold intensity.

The GFS model backed off the cold air in this morning’s runs.  I will be monitoring trends.

Ensembles are mixed on the idea.

Some squares are warm (red colors).  Some squares are blue (colder than average).

There was better agreement over the last few days compared to the new updates.

The EC model shows a cold snap around the third.  Nothing extreme, just normal January cold.

The GEFS shows some cold air, as well.  Nothing extreme, at this point.

I do believe we will see a shot or two of colder air the first half of January.  Whether that is an arctic front or not, remains to be seen.

An arctic front would mean colder air (bitterly cold).

Whether that means snow or ice is also questionable.  Occasionally, the data shows some risk of that, but not an overwhelming amount of data.  Thus, confidence in snow or ice is low, for now.

Our pattern is that we warm up and it rains.  We cool down and it is mostly dry.

 

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

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Here is the NAM model.

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Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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