December 22, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours.

The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching for rain ending as snow showers or snow flurries Wednesday night/Thursday. For now, accumulation risk appears small.

2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated lightning Wednesday.

3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Yes. Late Wednesday night into Thursday night. Wind chill temperatures may dip into the single digits. Strong and gusty wind will accompany cold temperatures.

December 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 48° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 54° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 3 to 6 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds late. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° SE MO 35° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:35 PM
Moonset: 12:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Becoming cloud. Windy. Rain likely. An isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain. A thunderstorm possible early in the night. Rain may mix with snow showers late at night. Rain ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Diminishing late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 1:00 PM
Moonset: 12:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A snow flurry or snow shower possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Much colder. Low wind chill values will make it feel even colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 15° to 20° SE MO 15° to 20° South IL 15° to 20° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° West KY 14° to 18° NW TN 15° to 20°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold wind chill temperatures. Watch icy patches in the AM.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:25 PM
Moonset: 1:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° SE MO 18° to 22° South IL 18° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 24° West KY 20° to 24° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:52 PM
Moonset: 2:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 46° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:22 PM
Moonset: 3:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 52° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 46° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Snow showers are possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the chance of snow showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor.
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 4:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy the first half of the day. Some clearing possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 38° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:38 PM
Moonset: 5:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).

Please refer to the long range video until that time.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through December 31st: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated December 20th through December 27th

A strong cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday and Thursday. Cold air Thursday into Friday.

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Weather Discussion

1. Quiet weather through Tuesday night.
2. Strong cold front with rain Wednesday into Thursday morning.
3. Much colder and windy behind the front. Snow flurries or snow showers.

Quiet weather through Tuesday night. No concerns.

Today was fairly mild with above normal temperatures.

There will be some increase in clouds as we move through Tuesday night.

Our next weather maker is a strong cold front that will sweep through the central and eastern United States.

This will bring heavy snow to areas WELL to our north and northeast. Rain for us.

Warmer air ahead of the system will help push moisture into our region Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The front will then use this moisture to produce showers. The bulk of the rain chances will be Wednesday afternoon and night. Ending Thursday.

Rain totals of 0.20″ to 0.45″ will be the general rule. Some models show a tad heavier over Kentucky. Thunderstorms are currently not anticipated.

Strong and gusty southerly winds will develop ahead of the front and strong winds from the west/northwest behind the front. Winds may gust above 30 mph from time to time.

A flash freeze is possible Wednesday night.

That means rapidly falling temperatures. If there is moisture left on pavement, decks, parking lots, or other surfaces then there could be a few icy spots. Dry air and wind may help dry surfaces.

Black ice may form. That is simply rain water that doesn’t have time to dry off surfaces before temperatures fall into the 20s. The gusty wind may help dry everything fairly quickly.

The main concern for black ice would be late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Low risk, overall.

At this time, it appears the bulk of the rain will have ended by the time the colder air arrives.

The rain may mix with or change to light snow showers or flurries late Wednesday night and Thursday. Again, the bulk of the moisture will be gone by the time the colder air arrives. Thus, little or no accumulation is anticipated. Little or no means 0.00″ to 1.00″ of snow.

Highs Thursday and Friday should remain mostly in the 30s. Wind chill temperatures will fall into the teens and 20s. Brrr.

It will be a cold Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Southerly winds will return by the weekend. Perhaps a few showers Sunday. I have low-end chances.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.