Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? MONITOR. I will monitor Monday through Wednesday. I am monitoring several systems between Wednesday and January 1st. Some of those could produce lightning. It is an active pattern. Monitor updates.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. I am watching several systems after Christmas. A very active pattern, overall. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I will keep an eye on rain totals next week into the following week. There could be some locally heavy rain.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? YES. Tonight and Sunday night.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? LOW CHANCE. A low chance tonight.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO .
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Fire weather risk level.
Saturday: 4. Low risk.
Saturday night: 4. Low risk.
Sunday: 3. Very low risk.
Sunday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Light and variable winds over the weekend remain expected to result in poor dispersion through the weekend. Afternoon RH values will be 38-45%. Temperatures will warm up next week with rain chances Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Additional rain events are expected later in the week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° during the morning. In the twenties during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~24° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:17 PM
Moonset: 11:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° during the morning. In the twenties and thirties during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 11:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30° during the morning. In the thirties and forties during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 12:14 AM
Moonset: 12:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:11 AM
Moonset: 12:23 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: East at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:16 AM
Moonset: 12:53 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Cold temperatures today and tomorrow.
- Warming trend begins Monday into much of next week.
- A very active weather pattern into January.
- Watching a cold snap early January.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Welcome to the weekend before Christmas and the first day of winter!
It will feel like winter today and tomorrow with below average temperatures. No snow or ice, thankfully.
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I continue to monitor rain chances next week. A tricky forecast when it comes to rain probabilities across our area.
Umbrella weather next week.
A very active weather pattern is shaping up. The GFS model and other models have no less than five systems to track between Monday and January 1st. A hyper-active storm track.
I am struggling with Monday’s forecast. Overall, the first rain system has slowed by about 12 hours.
I expect the bulk of the first rain event to occur Tuesday into Wednesday. Perhaps centered on Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM.
That does not mean there won’t be showers on radar Monday and Monday night into Tuesday morning. There will be. Coverage, however, will be scattered.
Key advice.
If you have outdoor events Monday through Wednesday, then monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather radars. Expect showers to dot radar through that time-frame.
Again, peak chances will arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rainfall totals Monday through Wednesday night will look something like this.
Double click to enlarge the graphic.
It won’t be exact, but take the general idea from it.
Heavier totals over Arkansas, Missouri, and southwest Illinois. Lighter totals as you push towards our eastern and northeastern counties.
The good news!
No severe thunderstorms or tornadoes Monday through Thursday.
No snow or ice Monday through Thursday.
Just some good ole fashion winter rain showers.
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Long-Range
Data indicates a series of low pressure systems and cold fronts will push across our region next week into the following. See the future-cast radars below.
This means numerous rain chances.
I know there is a lot of chatter about severe weather online, but for now I am simply monitoring the trends in the guidance.
It also can’t be ruled out. The signals, however, are not consistent enough to start posting about it (and scaring people).
I am on top of it. I am watching each system. If the threat of severe weather becomes a concern, then I will let you know.
For now, we watch trends in the guidance.
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For you snow lovers…
I am watching a shot of cold arctic air towards the first week of January. That is in the long long range portion of the forecast. You know the drill. We don’t get too caught up in the data past day five or six. Models don’t handle this pattern very well. They can’t be trusted for details.
With that said, there are a number of strong signals for a blast of cold air. Will that blast of cold air be dry or snowy? That will need to be monitored.
You may have noticed that we warm up and it rains. We cool down and it is dry. That is the story of our regions weather.
Occasionally, a system will tap into the cold air and we end up with snow and ice. I will be watching it.
Models do show snow potential, but it is too far out for an actual forecast.
Here are the ensembles (GFS and EC models).
These are temperature anomaly maps. The cold colors mean below average temperatures (blue/green).
The more squares that show the same colors, the higher the probability of that outcome.
Strong signals for a blast of cold air the first week of January.
Double click images to enlarge them.
The GFS temperature map shows that, as well. This animation shows temperatures as we move into the first week of January.
A decent dump of arctic air from Canada. Let’s watch trends on this. Perhaps the beginning of January will actually feel like January.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
The Hrrr model
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
Nothing of importance in the short range.
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Here is the NAM model.
Nothing of importance in the short range.
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Let’s look farther out. The Monday and Wednesday systems.
GFS model
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
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EC model
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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