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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours.
The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.
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Monday through Monday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching for rain ending as snow showers or snow flurries Wednesday night/Thursday. For now, accumulation risk appears small.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Yes. Late Wednesday night into Thursday night. Wind chill temperatures may dip into the single digits. Strong and gusty wind will accompany cold temperatures.
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December 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: AM clouds. Clearing as the day wears on. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 54° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 46° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: A few clouds. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:44 AM
Moonset: 11:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. Becoming mostly sunny. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 5 to 10 mph early becoming 0 to 5 mph late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:10 PM
Moonset: 6:00 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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December 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 0 to 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds late. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° SE MO 35° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:35 PM
Moonset: 12:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Becoming cloud. Windy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain. Rain may mix with snow late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and monitor updates
Moonrise: 1:00 PM
Moonset: 12:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Rain may mix with snow or become snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° SE MO 30° to 35° South IL 30° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 6 to 12 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Much colder. Low wind chill values will make it feel even colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 18° to 22° SE MO 15° to 20° South IL 15° to 20° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° West KY 16° to 22° NW TN 18° to 22°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold wind chill temperatures.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:25 PM
Moonset: 1:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° SE MO 29° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Clearing. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 16° to 24°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:52 PM
Moonset: 2:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:22 PM
Moonset: 3:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : AM
Moonset: : PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through December 31st: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated December 20th through December 27th
A strong cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday and Thursday. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the front. Flash freeze possible.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Quiet weather through Tuesday night.
- Strong cold front with rain Wednesday into Thursday morning.
- Much colder and windy behind the front. Snow flurries or snow showers.
Calm weather through Tuesday night. No weather concerns. A warming trend will make it feel nicer outside. Especially with some sunshine.
Our next big weather story arrives Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A strong cold front will sweep across the region. This will bring gusty winds, rain, falling temperatures, and perhaps even some snow showers.
Southerly winds will develop Monday into Wednesday. This will help spread moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico.
This will occur ahead of our cold front.
Warmer temperatures will also spread northward.
The cold front will begin to interact with this moisture by Wednesday afternoon and night.
First, we will see an increase in clouds as early as Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Clouds will thicken through Wednesday.
A few showers will begin to form in Missouri and Arkansas by Wednesday morning and early afternoon. These showers will then spread eastward into the rest of our region Wednesday afternoon and night.
This does not appear to be a heavy rain event, but some areas could top 0.50″. That will partially depend on the speed of the cold front.
The rain band will push west to east and diminish by Thursday morning.
Rapidly falling temperatures will occur immediately behind the cold front.
This could cause a flash freeze. A flash freeze occurs when moisture left-over from previous rains freezes on surfaces. Puddles of water freeze in parking lots. Decks can become icy, as well.
I will be monitoring the timing of the cold front and how much moisture remains behind the front.
I can’t rule out the rain ending as snow showers or snow flurries late Wednesday night and Thursday.
For now, the chance of accumulation appears low. Perhaps a dusting for some. Still working that part of the forecast out. Monitor updates in case there are adjustments.
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be cold. Low wind chill values will make it feel even colder.
Let me show you the GFS model animation for temperatures and wind chills for Wednesday/Thursday.
Temperatures
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Wind chill temperatures (what it feels like)
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
None
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
None
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 21st through December 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 28th through January 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers January 1st through January 14th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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