Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 2, 2016: Meteorological winter has arrived.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.

Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

Logo- Plain JPEG

.

2015-03-27_21-14-30

Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

.

2015-10-08_17-58-26

Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.  You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


BANNER OPTION 2
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.  . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.

.
.

2016-10-30_19-43-57

.

I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

2015-12-18_21-14-12

bottomlineitgif

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog…

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab).  Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts.  Your support is crucial.

The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  You will also find the password there.  The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.

The winter storm outlook has been updated (Wednesday, November 30th)  The next update will be Monday, December 5th

Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab

2016-11-26_12-47-34

..

.

Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and the blog for 25 days of Christmas giving!  I will be giving away weather radios and some other items!  There will be forty winners.  Contest begins now.

You may enter once each day!

.

December 1, 2016
Thursday Night:  Mostly clear and chilly.  
What impact is expected
None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 8:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:42 p.m.  Waxing Crescent

.

December 2, 2016
Friday:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Seasonably cool temperatures.
What impact is expected? None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 46-54  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 9:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:34 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
.

Friday Night:  Increasing clouds through the night.
What impact is expected
None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Northwest and west 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

.

A COMPLICATED weather forecast from Saturday afternoon into next week.  Monitor updates.  Changeable weather is likely.

December 3, 2016
Saturday:  Becoming cloudy.  A chance for light rain or sprinkles during the afternoon.  Rain chances will be higher near Poplar Bluff vs Carbondale. during the afternoon hours. 
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 45-50  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Variable at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor afternoon radars.
Sunrise
will be at 6:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 9:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:28 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
.

Saturday Night: Cloudy.  A chance for light rain showers.  Light rain may become mixed with snow.  Little or no accumulation anticipated.
What impact is expected
Wet roadways.  I will monitor temperatures concerning rain/snow mix.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 32-36 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 60% .  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  I can’t rule out some wet snow mixed in with the rain. Little or no accumulation anticipated.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

.

December 4, 2016
Rainfall totals from Saturday night through Sunday morning should be 0.10″ to 0.30″.  Light event.
Sunday:  Cloudy.  A chance for morning showers or snow showers.  Little or no accumulation anticipated.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.  Again, I will monitor temperatures.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:   Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 42-46  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Variable at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 60% .  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Scattered to widespread (mainly during the morning hours)
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Perhaps some wet snow.   Little or no accumulation.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Consider a plan B.  We might have to deal with rain.
Sunrise will be at 6:53 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  0-1

Moonrise
will be at 10:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:26 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
.

Sunday Night:  Partly cloudy.  Chilly.
What impact is expected
Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 32-36 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Variable 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Precipitation should have come to an end.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

.

December 5, 2016
Monday:  Mostly cloudy.  I will be monitoring rain chances moving back in from the southwest and south.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 48-54  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation?  
Scattered, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Sunrise
will be at 6:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 0-2

Moonrise
will be at 11:17 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:26 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
.

Monday Night:  Cloudy. A chance for rain.   Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Northeast and east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 50%.  KY ~ 50% .  TN ~ 50%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Possibly widespread.  Monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.

.

December 6, 2016
Rainfall totals for Monday and Tuesday could be greater than 0.30″.
Tuesday:  Cloudy. Rain should taper off.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.  Lightning possible.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 52-56  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation?
Monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise
will be at 6:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise
will be at 11:54 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:28 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
.

Tuesday Night:  Partly to mostly cloudy. 
What impact is expected
? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 40-44 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Northwest 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Most likely none.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

.

December 7, 2016
Wednesday:  Becoming cloudy.  A chance for showers (mainly during the afternoon).
What impact is expected? 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 45-50  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Southwest turning west at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation? 
Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise
will be at 6:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 0-3

Moonrise
will be at 12:30 a.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m.  First Quarter
.

Wednesday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Turning sharply colder.  Can’t rule out rain changing to a period of snow.  Low confidence this far out.
What impact is expected
Wet roadways.  I will be monitoring temperatures in case the rain changes over to frozen precipitation.  Low confidence on that happening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 24-28 degree range.
Wind Chill: 20-25 degrees
Winds:  Northwest 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

.

December 8, 2016
Thursday:  Partly cloudy to cloudy.  Precipitation ending before 9 am.  Low confidence forecast.  Falling temperatures are possible during the day on Thursday.
What impact is expected? 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 36-44  degree range.  Falling temperatures are possible as a cold front moves through the area.
Wind Chill: 25-30 degrees
Winds:  West and northwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation? 
Precipitation should have come to an end by Thursday
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be chilly
Sunrise
will be at 6:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3

Moonrise
will be at 1:06 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:31 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous
.

Thursday Night:  Mostly clear and cold.
What impact is expected
?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 16-22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 10-15 degrees
Winds:  North at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold

More information on the UV index.  Click here

.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

 

fribusstop

Visit their website here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

friafternoonbus

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

.Banner Ad 3

Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties.  We look forward to representing YOU!  Follow us on Facebook, as well

2016-11-29_20-07-56
2016-11-29_20-08-16

2015-03-20_19-08-11
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1. Winter storm update has been posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab)  Be sure and sign up for the service in order to view the winter outlooks.  Remember, my monthly costs are around $700.00.
  2. BIG contest on Facebook!  I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)!  Subscriptions to the texting service!  A $100 gift card from Amazon.  The contest is open NOW!
  3. Dry and seasonably cool weather into Saturday morning
  4. Sprinkles Saturday afternoon with rain or rain/snow Saturday night and Sunday morning
  5. Another system to monitor on Monday afternoon
  6. Another system to monitor next Wednesday and Thursday.

I have some announcements for all of you weather fans!

I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio).  I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service.  I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!

You may enter once per day through Christmas.  The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day!  There will be FORTY winners!

Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.

You can find more information on the Beau  Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.

The contest will begin now.  You may enter once per day.  The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.

Click graphic to enter the contest.

2016-11-27_16-46-56

Also

I have updated the winter storm forecast.  I update the winter storm outlook twice per week.  It is updated more frequently during inclement weather.  There was quite a bit to talk about today.  See the graphic further down in the blog.  It has the instructions on how to view the outlook.  Remember, the password is NOT the same password you use to sign into your Weather Talk account.  The password can be viewed behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.  There, you will find the link that will take you to the winter storm outlook.

Weather synopsis:

Key items to remember:

A.  The pattern is going to be quite active over the coming two to three weeks.  That means I will be tracking storm systems every few days.  Changeable weather is ahead of us.  There could be dramatic swings in temperatures.  Typical for early December.

B.  I can’t completely rule out some frozen precipitation.  If a shift in one of the storm tracks occurs then it could completely change the overall forecast.  Keep that in mind.

C.  Check back frequently for updates.  Don’t leave with one forecast three days out.  Keep checking back for updates.  We are entering the time of year where the forecasts can change rather quickly.

Meteorological winter has arrived.  Meteorologists measure seasons a little bit differently than everyone else.  We consider winter to be December, January, and February.

Let’s break down the overall pattern.

Thursday night into Saturday morning will be dry and cool.  Seasonably cool temperatures.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50-51 degrees and normal lows are around 31-32 degrees.

A storm system will approach our region Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.  This system will be moving northward from Louisiana and Arkansas.  This system could spread sprinkles or light rain into the area late Saturday, but more likely Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Heaviest rainfall amounts should be near the Missouri and Arkansas line and then eastward along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.  North of there totals will be less.  Most likely we are talking about 0.10″ to 0.30″.  I will monitor our southern counties for higher totals.

Some of the guidance paints heavier totals (see the graphics further down in this blog update)

Of some interest is colder air that works into the region late Saturday night into the first part of  Sunday.  It might be cold enough to change the rain to a mixture of rain and snow or perhaps all snow.  It appears snowfall accumulations would be a dusting to none at all.  That is how it appears today.  Again, check back for updates.

Rain or rain/snow will come to an end on Sunday afternoon.  Dry weather is expected for Sunday night.

Here is the WRF guidance.  This is the Saturday into Sunday morning precipitation event.

Green and yellow represents showers and/or thunderstorms.

This first image is for 3 am on Saturday.  You can see rain to our south and west.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_39

This next image is for 9 am on Saturday.  The model is showing rain.  I think this might be virga.  Dry air at the surface might cause the rain to evaporate before reaching the ground.   This is common during the winter months.  It takes time to saturate the air.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_41

This next image is for 3 pm on Saturday.  Rain may start spreading into our local area.  The rain will first arrive in the Poplar Bluff, Missouri area and then east into western Tennessee.  Rain will then spread east/northeast.

The timing of the rain is a bit uncertain for Saturday afternoon.  As we move into late Saturday afternoon and evening the rain chances will certainly be on the increase.  The bulk of the precipitation will fall on Saturday night/Sunday morning.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_43

This next image is for 6 pm on Saturday.  Rain will likely be spreading into the region.

nam4km_ref_frzn_scus_44

Monday and Tuesday:

Another system arrives on Monday into Tuesday.  This system should be stronger than the previous one.  Showers and perhaps even thunderstorms will enter the forecast during this time frame.  Some of the guidance is painting locally heavy rain.  Strong thunderstorms are possible south and east of the area of low pressure.  Most likely Tennessee southward.  This needs to be monitored, as always.

If the low passes to our west then thunderstorm chances will increase.

Rainfall amounts with the Monday and Tuesday system could be greater than 0.30″.  Monitor updates.  I will monitor trends in the guidance on storm track and strength.

Another system is forecast to arrive on Wednesday/Thursday.  Guidance is flip flopping on how to handle that particular system.  Some models are showing heavy snow in our area.  Some models are showing rain and storms.  Some models show no storm at all.  Don’t you love meteorology!

The overall pattern favors an active week.

At this time, I believe there will be a storm system, but the details are not clear.  I will be closely monitoring the system and will update the forecast numbers accordingly.  I don’t like to put 50% or greater rain probabilities past day three or four.  I like to ramp up.  That means that a 30% or 40% chance for rain on day four, five, six, or seven is actually a fairly high number.

Let’s take a look at some weather maps.

This first set of maps is the Canadian GEM model guidance.  It has done fairly well over the past few weeks.

The problem with this pattern is that there are so many disturbances moving through the fast jet stream flow that the models have a hard time keying in on the details.  That includes the track of the area of low pressure and the strength.  You need to know both of those to produce an accurate forecast.

This first image is for Tuesday at 6 am.  You can see this model has an area of low pressure over southwest Kansas.  A large area of rain covers much of the Missouri Valley southward.

Blue represents snow.  Green represents rain.  Dark green/yellow represents moderate to heavy rain.

prateptype_cat-conus-2

This next image is for Tuesday at 6 pm.  You can see heavy snow over Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Rain over our region.  A low in the Texas Panhandle.

prateptype_cat-conus-3

This next image is for Wednesday at 6 pm.  A well organized cyclone/low pressure over northern Missouri.  Heavy wind driven snow across Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa.   Rain and storms would develop southward and eventually move into our region.

prateptype_cat-conus-4

This next image is for Thursday at 6 am.  Deep low over Wisconsin.  Snow to the north and west of the lows track.  Perhaps some showers in our local area.

prateptype_cat-conus-5

That was the Canadian model.

Let’s take a look at the American GFS model guidance.

This first image is the Monday system.  The GFS has a low well to our south.  Typically this would be a winter storm track for our local area.  Lack of cold air at the surface most likely means rain.  At this time, it appears the Monday and Monday night/Tuesday system would be rain.

The graphic shows rain spreading into our region.  This is the noon hour on Monday.  This is a well organized storm system.  A few days ago the data was showing a weak event.  This tells you how quickly the guidance can change in this type of pattern.

The colors represent 6 hour rainfall totals.  For example, this map would be from 6 am to 12 pm on Monday.   Scale is on the right side of the image.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17

This next image is from 12 pm to 6 pm on Monday.  Plenty of rain in our region.  Perhaps a chilly rain.  Low is still well to our south.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18

This next image is for 6 pm on Monday through 12 am on Tuesday.  Large shield of rain over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley.  A little bit colder and this would be snow.  This is a decent track for the area of low pressure.  Normally, during the winter months, this would be a snow event for our local area.  As it stands, it appears it will be rain.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19

This next image is for 12 am through 6 am on Tuesday.  The low is pulling through Tennessee and into Kentucky.  Rain continues in our area.  The freezing line located near northwest Missouri.  The Monday/Tuesday event should be rain.

If the low tracks further west and north then thunderstorms will need to be introduced into the forecast.  As always, monitor updates.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20

I want to show you the GFS model guidance for the Wednesday/Thursday evening event.

The GFS, during the Thursday morning run, has lost the system.  It no longer shows a well organized event.  The GFS is keying in on the Monday and Tuesday system and then another one Friday and Saturday.

This is a dramatic flip from previous forecasts.  This raises questions as to whether the GFS is on to something or if it just is not handling the pattern very well.

We still have several days to monitor trends.  I will keep an eye on it.

The GFS at noon on Wednesday indicates rain and snow in our local area.  Blue represents snow.  Green represents rain.

The low is in Canada.  A cold front would be moving through our region.

prateptype_cat-conus-7

By 6 pm on Wednesday the GFS has snow in our local area.  Again, let’s keep an eye on it.

prateptype_cat-conus-8

 

WINTER STORM UPDATE:  

UPDATED TODAY!  Wednesday, November 30th 

I have updated the winter storm outlook.  The third of the season.  The winter storm outlook will be posted twice a week.

You can view the forecast by following these instructions.  Remember, the winter storm outlook is behind the paywall.  It is $3 a month.  A typical months worth of expenses is $700.00 or more.  This helps offset the costs.

The next winter storm update will be posted on Monday, December 5th.  Posts are made more frequently when necessary (when winter weather is forecast).

To sign up for the text messages you can visit www.beaudodsonweather.com

2016-11-25_19-48-51

Find me on Twitter, as well!

.2016-11-19_11-50-24

.

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Dry weather is anticipated through Saturday morning.  I will be tracking another system Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon/evening.  I will be monitoring a potential system December 5th/6th and yet another one for December 7th through the 9th.

Here are the rainfall totals for the Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning event.  WIDE range of opinions on the models.  I do not believe this will be a substantial rain event.  A couple of models spit out higher totals.

There could be some snow mixed in on Saturday night/Sunday morning.  At this time, significant accumulations are not anticipated.

This first image is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast graphic.

wpc_total_precip_ky_14

Here are two models.  The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.

This is for the Saturday/Sunday rain event.

GFS model guidance.

Click image to enlarge

qpf_048h-wxt_ov

GEM model rainfall totals

Click image to enlarge

qpf_048h-wxt_ov-1

NAM model rainfall totals

Click image to enlarge
.
qpf_048h-wxt_ov-1
.

.

Temperature Outlook

Friday morning low temperatures

..sfctmin_006h-wxt_ov-2

.
Friday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
.
sfctmax_006h-wxt_ov-2
.
Saturday 
morning low temperatures

.
.sfctmin_006h-wxt_ov-3
.

Saturday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
.
.sfctmax_006h-wxt_ov-3

Sunday morning low temperatures
.
sfctmin_006h-wxt_ov-4
.
Sunday afternoon high temperatures
.
sfctmax_006h-wxt_ov-4
.

Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
.
.
12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

.

2014-11-03_15-49-30

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

2014-11-24_13-38-04

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday night through Monday morning:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Monday afternoon into Tuesday night:  I will be closely monitoring an area of low pressure that is forecast to pass near our region.

I will be monitoring a storm system December 7th through the 8th.  Too early to know whether thunderstorms will be a concern.
.

.2014-11-03_7-32-16

No major adjustments in this forecast package.
.

whatamiconcered
.
No major concerns for Thursday night into Friday night.  Perhaps some fog at night.


.

..2014-12-21_20-26-42

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
.


.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
.

.

.

2015-05-28_13-49-52

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

Comments are closed.