Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day.  Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours. 

The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.

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3.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.

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December 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny AM.  Some increase in clouds will be possible as the day wears on.  More clouds over southeast Missouri late in the day vs elsewhere.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55°    SE MO 48° to  54°    South IL  48° to 54°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  50° to 54°    West KY 48° to 54°    NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:36 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Thickening clouds. A chance of rain and snow showers developing from the west/southwest.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34°     SE MO  28° to 34°     South IL  28° to 34°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32°    West KY 32° to 34°     NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered (mainly SE MO).  Less coverage as you move north and east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.  Monitor updates in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Moonrise: 6:32 PM
Moonset:  8:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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December 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds. A chance of scattered rain and snow showers.  Snow showers would be early AM hours.  Chilly temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°    SE MO 43° to  46°    South IL  43° to 46°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  43° to 46°    West KY 43° to 46°    NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast wind becoming south at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.  Monitor early AM hours in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A few rain and rain/snow showers (mainly the southeast half of the region, which would be Kentucky and Tennessee).  Ending as the night wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34°     SE MO  28° to 32°     South IL  28° to 32°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32°    West KY 32° to 34°     NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Monitor in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 7:28 PM
Moonset:  9:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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December 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Isolated rain or rain/snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°    SE MO 43° to  46°    South IL  43° to 46°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  43° to 46°    West KY 43° to 46°    NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Light northwest wind 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  An isolated rain or snow shower possible over our eastern counties.  That would mostly be Evansville, Indiana southward to Hopkinsville, Kentucky.  Near that area o eastward.  Monitor southern Illinois and elsewhere.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32°     SE MO  26° to 30°     South IL  26° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32°    West KY 30° to 32°     NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 8:29 PM
Moonset:  10:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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December 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy.  An isolated rain or snow shower possible over our eastern counties.  That would mostly be Evansville, Indiana southward to Hopkinsville, Kentucky.  Near that area o eastward.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48°    SE MO 43° to  46°    South IL  44° to 46°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 46°    West KY 44° to 46°    NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways (eastern counties).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34°     SE MO  28° to 30°     South IL  28° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30°    West KY 28° to 34°     NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: West wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:34 PM
Moonset:  11:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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December 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°    SE MO 44° to  48°    South IL  44° to 48°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 48°    West KY 44° to 48°    NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32°     SE  MO  25° to 30°     South IL  25° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30°    West KY 26° to 30°     NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:40 PM
Moonset:  11:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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December 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  A few AM clouds. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48°    SE MO 43° to  46°    South IL  44° to 46°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 46°    West KY 44° to 46°    NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest wind 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.   Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32°     SE  MO  25° to 30°     South IL  25° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30°    West KY 25° to 30°     NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 23° to 26°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:48 PM
Moonset:  12:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

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December 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  A few AM clouds. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°    SE MO 44° to  48°    South IL  44° to 48°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 48°    West KY 44° to 48°    NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest wind 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.   Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32°     SE  MO  25° to 30°     South IL  25° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30°    West KY 25° to 30°     NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 23° to 26°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset:  12:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns). 

Please refer to the long range video until that time.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through December 10th:   No severe thunderstorms.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated December 1st and 2nd.

No significant weather concerns.  A light rain rain/snow event is possible Wednesday night into Friday night.  Little or no accumulation expected.

Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

1. 1.   Cold air for early December.  Chilly.
   2.   Monitoring precipitation chances Wednesday night into Friday.  Nothing major.

Well, the cold air has certainly arrived.

Check out these temperatures as of 2 PM Tuesday.

Click image to enlarge it.

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The cold air will linger into the weekend.  The good news is that it won’t be quite as cold as today.

High pressure dominates our regions weather.  Thus, the sunshine today.

It will be chilly tonight (Tuesday night) with lows in the 20s.  Calm wind.  There could be some patchy fog, as well.

Dry weather will be with us tonight and Wednesday.

Clouds will begin to increase late Wednesday into Wednesday night as our next weather maker arrives.

A series of weak disturbances will push across the region Wednesday night into Thursday night.

A weak area of low-pressure will form over the next 24-hours in Oklahoma.  It will then slowly move east and northeast.

These disturbances do not have much moisture to work with.  Thus, there will only be low-end rain and rain/snow chances.  No accumulation expected.  Watch for black ice if temperatures fall below freezing.

Black ice is simply rain puddles that refreeze.

There will be low-end rain and rain/snow chances beginning Wednesday night over southeast Missouri and then spreading into the rest of the region Thursday morning and afternoon.  Again, this is a light precipitation event.

It will be cold enough Thursday morning for a rain or rain/snow/sleet mixture with no accumulation.

There is disagreement in the guidance as to when to end the rain chances.

At this time, I have a chance of rain and rain/snow Friday into Friday night across the region, as well.  Again, a light event with little or no impact anticipated from the frozen precipitation.

Confidence in Saturday’s forecast over our eastern counties is rather low.  This is because of the timing of the system pushing away from the region.  I did mention clouds and low-end rain chances continuing in those areas.  Pennyrile area of western Kentucky (mainly).

Sunday is forecast to be dry.  The GFS model shows widespread rain and snow.  For now, I have thrown that model solution out.

Below normal temperatures are expected into next week.

Check out this snow photograph from Alabama.  The snow fell Monday afternoon and night.  They beat us to the punch on snow accumulation!

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  December 2nd through December 8th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers  December 9th through December 15th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″

This outlook covers December 15th through the 28th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING.  DURING THE GROWING SEASON.

 

Winter Outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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And the preliminary March outlooks

Temperature departures

Precipitation

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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