Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Patchy freezing fog this morning in areas where temperatures have fallen below freezing. Isolated issues. Freezing fog can leave a thin layer of ice on bridges, overpasses, decks, and sidewalks.
Ohio Valley Video Update from the Bamwx Team (they help me with videos)
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.
Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
.
.
Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I will be watching Christmas Eve and Christmas day.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
.
Fire weather risk level.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Mostly clear skies with dry air, and light southerly winds are expected today with high pressure overhead slowly moving to the east. Low mixing heights due to a residual inversion and light winds will lead to poor smoke dispersion. By mid week, temperatures begin to moderate, and a chance of rain returns to the forecast by weeks end.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
.
.
Tuesday, December 19, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming east southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: During the morning 10 to 20 degrees. Afternoon 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
.
Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:06 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
.
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Not as cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
.
Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:32 AM
Moonset: 12:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
Thursday, December 21, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
.
Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:58 PM
Moonset: 1:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
Friday, December 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
.
Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 1:28 PM
Moonset: 2:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
Saturday, December 23, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
.
Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:00 PM
Moonset: 3:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
Sunday, December 24, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
.
Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 45° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 45° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:39 PM
Moonset: 4:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
Monday, December 22, 2023
Christmas
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Christmas Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
.
Christmas Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:23 PM
Moonset: 6:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
-
- Cold today.
- Quiet weather Wednesday and Thursday.
- Rain chances Thursday night into Christmas.
- Watching active storm pattern week of Christmas and following week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
.Forecast Discussion
Catch me on WMOK radio this Friday. I will be discussing the Christmas forecast and what comes next.
If you want to receive the daily forecast, then log into your www.weathertalk.com account and turn on NUMBER 3. I usually send out the hand-typed forecast between noon and 4 pm each day. In addition to the daily forecast you will receive an extended outlook, fire weather forecast, and more.
Today will be the coldest day of the week. Yesterday and today. A bundle up morning, for sure.
Check out these temperatures. They may fall a couple more degrees before the sun starts to warm us up, a little bit.
Brrrr!
No weather concerns today through Thursday afternoon. Quiet weather. A slow warming trend begins tonight and tomorrow.
I have rain showers in the forecast Thursday night through Christmas. The difficult part of the forecast is trying to figure out what % number to put on those rain chances.
I mostly have 30% chances, for now. There will be time periods where I may need to bump those numbers up.
The probabilities will likely be higher Sunday and Monday. I have 40% to 60% chances Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. I may bump that up to 70% as confidence increases.
For now, I kept thunderstorms out of the forecast, but that could change depending on the path of the area of low pressure and its strength.
The K-index is popping Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. This could mean lightning.
We may hit 60 degrees or near 60 degrees Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Temperatures Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be well above seasonal averages. Average highs for this time of the year are around 49 degrees. Average lows are around 29 degrees.
Here is the national temperature anomaly forecast for December 25th. Look at all that mild air!
What about rain totals?
I have not been happy about the last few events when it comes to the rain totals forecast. For the most part, we have been overshooting. In other words, forecasting too high of totals. They have ended up lower. Not for everyone, but for many.
Let’s see how this trends.
These are the seven day rainfall totals forecast from the WPC and different models.
WPC NOAA Seven Day Rainfall Forecast
GFS Model Seven Day Rainfall Forecast
Canadian Model Seven Day Rainfall Forecast
EC Model Seven Day Rainfall Forecast
Blend of Models Seven Day Rainfall Forecast
I am watching several systems between December 26th and January 3rd. Could one of those bring snow or a wintry mix to the region? It is possible, but confidence this far out remains low. This is the time-period I have been saying for two months to watch.
Around and after Christmas. To watch for an active pattern and for a cold shot of air. Let’s see how everything trends over the coming days.
Let’s take a look into the rest of winter and spring. Our long range outlooks have been batting about 70 to 80% accuracy.
Here are some monthly forecasts into May.
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
March through May Temperature Outlook
March through May Precipitation Outlook
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
.
Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
.
Tornado Probability Outlook
.
Large Hail Probability Outlook
.
High wind Probability Outlook
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
.
.
The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
_______________________________________
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
.
This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
