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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible this morning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED. Areas that received heavy rain over the past week could have some issues this morning. Especially over western Tennessee. Or where showers and thunderstorms have repeatedly trained over the areas.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? YES. Wednesday night, Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? POSSIBLE. I am watching cold air this week (mid to late week).
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? LOW RISK. A few snow showers possible Thursday night and Friday over SE IL and NW KY. A dusting at most.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO .
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Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Northwest winds will bring in much cooler air and help begin the drying process across the region today. Winds will shift to the southwest Thursday, but poor dispersion is expected. Gusty northwest winds return to the region Friday, as a blast of Arctic air arrives. Cold and dry conditions are forecast through the weekend. South winds and a quick return to mild conditions is forecast early next week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly this morning. Ending west to east. Temperatures may fall during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous during the morning. Ending west to east.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before noon. Tapering off as the day wears on.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest becoming north 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Clearing sky conditions. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: Wind from the north at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:11 PM
Moonset: 10:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction becoming south at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° during the morning. In the twenties during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold. A slight chance of snow showers across SE IL and NW KY.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 26° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:10 PM
Moonset: 10:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Cold. A slight chance of snow showers near the Evansville tri-state area.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (our northeast counties)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° during the morning. In the twenties during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways where snow showers develop.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~24° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:17 PM
Moonset: 11:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Turning colder today.
- Rain ends west to east today. A few storms. Locally heavy rain this morning. Avoid flooded roadways.
- Turning colder into the weekend.
- Watching several systems the week of Christmas into the following week. Active.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good morning, everyone.
It was a stormy night across the region. Many of you were awoken by heavy rain, gusty wind, and lightning/thunder.
The worst of the weather extended from the Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee. There were even some severe thunderstorm warnings issued by the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service.
Thankfully, no tornadoes were reported.
Here is what radar looked like at 6:30 AM
All of that rain is moving off to the east. It will end west to east this morning. We could even see some clearing later today.
It will be mild this morning with temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above average. A cold front will move through the region today. Temperatures will actually fall from west to east behind that front.
Gusty winds, as well.
Dry conditions tonight through Sunday night (for the most part).
The only exception will be a few snow showers Thursday night and Friday over the Evansville Tri-State region. At this time, any accumulation would be light. Zero to a dusting. Mainly on grassy surfaces and elevated surfaces. The bulk of that snow event will stay to our northeast. I will keep a close eye on it.
High temperatures should remain in the 30s Friday into Sunday. Brrr.
Another rain event takes shape early next week. I am watching Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. It appears that it will be too warm for snow. Thus, showers are in the forecast. Perhaps some thunderstorms. See the future-cast radars below.
It is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern next week. I am monitoring several systems. It does appear too warm for snow through next week.
We remain in an active pattern. Thus, monitor frequent updates over the coming weeks. We will be tracking several storm systems.
Most of our snow and ice falls in January and February. Occasionally, we get a big snow event in December, but that is not the norm.
Thus, if you want snow, then we will keep an eye on January and February. The pattern is active, we just need the cold air to mix with one of these systems.
As always, it is a roll of the dice. If you get enough systems, then eventually one will hit the cold air.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
The Hrrr model
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
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Here is the NAM model.
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Let’s look farther out. The Monday and Wednesday systems.
GFS model
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
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EC model
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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