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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Patchy freezing fog this morning in areas where temperatures have fallen below freezing. Isolated issues. Freezing fog can leave a thin layer of ice on bridges, overpasses, decks, and sidewalks.
A couple of snow showers will be possible today over our northeastern and eastern counties. Mainly over Indiana.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Possible. We may get close Monday night and Tuesday morning.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No. Snow showers are possible Monday over mainly southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
Monday: 5. Medium risk.
Monday night: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low Risk
Fire Weather Discussion
A brief blast of arctic air will invade the region Monday and Tuesday. Wind chills in the 20s and 30s during the day will fall into the teens on Monday night. It will also be quite breezy on Monday with northwest winds gusting up to 30 or 35 mph. Temperatures moderate back into the 50s mid to late week. Rain chances may return to the region as early as Friday, but our best potential looks to hold off until Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Monday, December 18, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Patchy morning freezing fog. Use care in areas with fog and temperatures below freezing. Partly cloudy. Cold. Windy. A chance of snow showers over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky with little or no impacts.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slick roads where freezing fog develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Windy before midnight. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~ 15° to 20°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 16° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 16° to 20°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Winds subsiding late at night.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 08° to 18°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:40 AM
Moonset: 11:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday, December 19, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: South 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:06 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Wednesday, December 20, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Not as cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 35°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:32 AM
Moonset: 12:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Much cold air is arriving today.
- Widely scattered rain or rain/snow showers today over southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Our east/northeast counties.
- Windier weather.
- Watching rain chances later this week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
.Forecast Discussion
The primary weather concern today will be gusty winds and falling temperatures.
Patchy fog formed overnight. The bulk of the region is above freezing. Some valley areas have dipped below freezing. Cold favored areas, as well.
6 AM temperatures.
Double click images on this page to enlarge them.
Patchy fog combined with these temperatures can cause icy patches of elevated surfaces such as bridges, overpasses, and decks. Use caution this morning.
Gusty northwest winds will increase to 20 to 35 mph today and this evening. This will occur as colder air filters into the region.
Temperatures today may actually fall as we move through the late morning and afternoon hours.
For example, here is the Paducah, Kentucky, temperature forecast.
Blustery winds will also bring a few snow and rain/snow showers to our northeastern counties.
Perhaps some eastern counties, as well.
The bulk of this is forecast to remain in Indiana and northern Kentucky. A few snow showers could make their way into southern Illinois and western Kentucky, as well. Any accumulation would be light. A dusting or nothing.
You can see those snow showers on this future cast radar. Double click images on this page to enlarge them.
Here is the wind gust map. Time is in Zulu.
12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am.
Clouds will also linger over portions of the region today. Slowly, with time, those clouds will shift east.
It is going to feel like the holidays / winter over the next 48 hours. It has been awhile since we experienced multiple days with well below normal temperatures. Most of December has been well above average in the temperature department.
Let’s look at the temperature anomalies for the country, as a whole.
Our forecast was for a top 5 warmest December’s for the country as a whole.
We are on the way. These the monthly averages, thus far.
Check out the northlands. Wow. To be 10 degrees above average, for a 16 day period, is quite amazing.
Nearly the entire country has been warmer than average. Let’s see how the last 15 days shake out.
Some kids are in school today and tomorrow. Others are out because of high rates of Covid and flu.
Those who have school, will want to bundle up tomorrow morning. The bus stop will be quite cold.
Wind chill values will dip into the 8 to 16 degree range Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Cold weather safety.
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HOLIDAY FORECAST
Unsettled weather will arrive Thursday into Christmas week.
We have been talking about these systems for the last two months. My forecast was to watch the week of Christmas into January 3rd for a more active pattern and the potential for a shot of colder air.
The active pattern appears to be a lock. I am tracking three to five systems during that time period.
One of them will arrive Thursday and Friday. Another one Saturday into Monday. And, data shows the potential for a couple more systems after Christmas between the 26th and January 3rd.
My temperature forecast, for the last couple of weeks, has been for at or above average temperatures Thursday through Christmas Day.
We will then just have to see if some colder air arrives after that. It does appear we may see brief shots of colder air. Details to be worked out.
Here is the EC model shows the unsettled weather. Green represents rain. Blue is snow.
Time is in Zulu. Timestamp upper left. Double click images on this page to enlarge them.
12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am.
And the GFS model
Let’s take a look into the rest of winter and spring. Our long range outlooks have been batting about 70 to 80% accuracy.
Here are some monthly forecasts into May.
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
March through May Temperature Outlook
March through May Precipitation Outlook
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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