Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast: Patchy morning fog.  Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers over the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee.  Lower chances north.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After  2 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast becoming east southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Heavier totals south vs north.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction:  Wind from the south at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.  A few storms could be strong over the Missouri Bootheel, northwest Tennessee, and along the KY/TN border southward.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:03 PM
Moonset: 9:27 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Ending west to east.  Temperatures may fall during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before noon.  Tapering off as the day wears on.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest becoming north 10 to 25 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Clearing sky conditions.  A slight chance of evening showers.  Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  A small chance during the early evening hours.
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction:  Wind from the north at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:11 PM
Moonset: 10:05 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Thursday Forecast:   Partly to mostly sunny.  Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction:  Variable wind direction becoming south at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° during the morning.  In the twenties during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Thursday  Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 26° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:10 PM
Moonset: 10:36 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Friday Forecast:   Partly to mostly sunny.  Cold.  A slight chance of snow showers near the Evansville tri-state area.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated (our northeast counties)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° during the morning.  In the twenties during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  Cold.  A slight chance of snow showers over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~24° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:17 PM
Moonset: 11:03 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.   Cool today.
   2.   Widespread showers and storms tonight and tomorrow morning.
   3.   Turning colder mid to late week.
   4.   Watching several systems the week of Christmas into the following week.  Active.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone.

We are in between storm system today.

We are waking up to cooler temperatures vs yesterday morning.

7 AM temperatures.

We will have a mix of sun and clouds today.  Some patchy dense fog this morning.  Use care.

Clouds will be on the increase again this afternoon.  A couple of showers may develop across the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee.

Rain coverage rapidly increases tonight.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms.  The coverage will be higher the farther south you travel.  Our far northern counties will have lighter rainfall totals.  Our far southern counties could have an inch or more of rain.

Here are the anticipated rainfall totals.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Eastern view

Note: There is the potential of higher totals from the Missouri Bootheel east northeast along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.   Especially if storms train over the same area.

In addition to the above, there could be a few strong storms from the Bootheel east northeast along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.  The concern would be damaging wind and an isolated tornado.

You can see that on the day one severe weather outlook.

Again, we will also be monitoring a county or two north of the dark green zone.  There could be some shifting of the outlook.  Monitor updates.

Here is a graphic from the Memphis, Tennessee NWS

Areas in light green is where lightning is possible.  The dark green is where we are monitoring for a few intense storms.  I will send out app notifications if severe weather develops.  Monitor updates in case the outlook shifts northward.

This rain event will wind down Wednesday morning.  Rain ends west to east as we move through the day.  Clouds may linger.

See the Hrrr and NAM 3K future-cast radars below.

Temperatures may actually fall on Wednesday as a cold front moves across the region.  Breezy, at times.

Colder air filters into the region Wednesday night through Sunday night.  Some locations could even dip into the teens this weekend.

The only potential precipitation will be Friday into Saturday.  I can’t rule out snow flurries over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Chances are low and we do not expect accumulation.

As we move into the week of Christmas, temperatures will pop above average, again.

That means rain.

I am watching a storm system around the 23rd into the 26th.  Another one a few days later.  Both could bring showers and perhaps thunderstorms back into the forecast.

Confidence in the timing and intensity of those systems remains low.  Model data is all over the place.  It is beyond the long range forecast period, thus confidence is always going to be lower.

I will know more over the coming days.

Here is what the GFS model is spitting out.  One of several models.

Around Christmas.  Some showers possible.

Around December 27th.  Another potential system.

Around December 31st.

If the GFS model is correct, then our pattern will remain active with frequent cold fronts.

What is missing for snow?  We need the storm systems to track farther south and we need some Canadian high pressure to the north.  That would nudge colder air into our region.

Perhaps January and February will deliver some snow and ice chances.  I will be monitoring it.

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Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

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Here is the NAM model.

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Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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